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When I was looking at Tesla delivery numbers earlier its pretty close to 50% increase each year, but there was a bigger jump once (I forget which year, too lazy to look). So, just from that, I'd go for a 50% increase yet again -- which is what, 550k? Which is why I'd go for 550k ±40k or whatever as a margin. However, the one notable exception was a bigger jump and we have justification (GF3). Given your alignment of ranges I'd go for the next one up as the hedge.BTW, I set the poll up to accept upto 3 choices. That's so we can get a feel for the outer limits of what we think is probable.
I'd be curious about what sort of pathway people see to their upper limits or what motivates their lower limits.
Thanks all for sharing.
With GF3 going two shifts mid Q1 and Model Y already in small scale production I am gonna up my estimates.Guiding 540-600k, hitting 552k.
420,069
You mean 2020 is gonna be epic?With GF3 going two shifts mid Q1 and Model Y already in small scale production I am gonna up my estimates.
Guiding 560-640k, hitting 602k. 2021 is gonna be epic!
It was never funny, that's what makes it funny now. Keep up!Is that how many posts ago this 420-69 thing stopped being funny?
Sorry, sorry... just getting the "been there, done that" sort of feeling...
It already is. But 2021 will be on another level, GF3 3+Y 7k/week of each, GF4 Y up and running, Freemont 3+Y, Semi, Cybertruck, FSD, solar roofs, dry electrode batteries. I am thinking 1M+ cars in 2021. Tesla will be printing money and expanding into every form of terrestrial transportation.You mean 2020 is gonna be epic?