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Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors

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Politico saying that there is a sense that a deal is imminent -

Government shutdown update: Senate leaders nearing a deal - POLITICO.com

Indeed, there were growing expectations that a deal was imminent; Senate Republicans and Democrats are expected to meet Tuesday to discuss the proposal in separate closed-door caucus meetings.

This is essentially a re-hash of what they've been discussing and tweaking all day. The only new thing is that there are hints that the Medical Device Tax is being dropped from the deal, in exchange for a delay of the Re-Insurance Tax.

The Medical Device Tax debate, and Democratic opposition to it, has been ongoing since before the ACA was passed (in fact, my recollection is that then Senator Kerry was a big opponent, and I'm pretty sure that his replacement, Elizabeth Warren is as well).

In contrast, the final (?) deal is on the Re-Insurance Tax that I wasn't even aware was super controversial among Democrats. However, unions do seem to hate it, which pretty much answers why it ended up on this deal -

Unions poised to win delay of ObamaCare tax in budget deal - The Hill's Healthwatch

This all seems to be essentially wrapped up, though I think I'll reserve some skepticism until someone signs the dotted line. The main reason for skepticism is that all of the key points discussed are essentially the Democratic position.

Longer debt limit (with no funny business about preventing the Treasury from using emergency measures to extend it further), shorter CR and budget conference that sets up a major battle over the Sequester, and fig leaf addons that are ostensibly for the Republicans (because they modify Obamacare) but which reflect Democratic priorities (in the case of the re-insurance tax) or else are illusion in the case of the income verifications, which are current law that have been delayed because of technical issues, and this "agreement" seems likely to lead to additional funding to fix those issues.

Anyways, we'll see how all this flies when House Republicans see it.

Robert Costa at National Review posted this, so theoretically, yes -

Leadership is being pressured by growing group of House Rs to just let Sen deal come to floor if it has budg conf + short-tm CR/DL

Still this looks like a bitter pill for House Republicans, and they still have leverage if they choose to use it.

(I recommend checking out Robert Costa's twitter feed for more flavor)
 
Politico saying that there is a sense that a deal is imminent -

Government shutdown update: Senate leaders nearing a deal - POLITICO.com



This is essentially a re-hash of what they've been discussing and tweaking all day. The only new thing is that there are hints that the Medical Device Tax is being dropped from the deal, in exchange for a delay of the Re-Insurance Tax.

The Medical Device Tax debate, and Democratic opposition to it, has been ongoing since before the ACA was passed (in fact, my recollection is that then Senator Kerry was a big opponent, and I'm pretty sure that his replacement, Elizabeth Warren is as well).

In contrast, the final (?) deal is on the Re-Insurance Tax that I wasn't even aware was super controversial among Democrats. However, unions do seem to hate it, which pretty much answers why it ended up on this deal -

Unions poised to win delay of ObamaCare tax in budget deal - The Hill's Healthwatch

This all seems to be essentially wrapped up, though I think I'll reserve some skepticism until someone signs the dotted line. The main reason for skepticism is that all of the key points discussed are essentially the Democratic position.

Longer debt limit (with no funny business about preventing the Treasury from using emergency measures to extend it further), shorter CR and budget conference that sets up a major battle over the Sequester, and fig leaf addons that are ostensibly for the Republicans (because they modify Obamacare) but which reflect Democratic priorities (in the case of the re-insurance tax) or else are illusion in the case of the income verifications, which are current law that have been delayed because of technical issues, and this "agreement" seems likely to lead to additional funding to fix those issues.

Anyways, we'll see how all this flies when House Republicans see it.

Robert Costa at National Review posted this, so theoretically, yes -



Still this looks like a bitter pill for House Republicans, and they still have leverage if they choose to use it.

(I recommend checking out Robert Costa's twitter feed for more flavor)

Well, that pretty much make my day! Good night everbody! :) 03.21 am here in Norway.
 
Senate Republicans meeting today to discuss McConnell's deal, but I doubt that he doesn't already have an accurate vote count that he felt was sufficient to pass this. Question is what the House will do, and whether Cruz filibusters. In that vein I found this tidbit particularly interesting -

Ted Cruz, House Republicans Meet in Secret at Tortilla Coast | 218

Somehow I doubt they were there to watch the Dodgers beat St Louis... (Go Dodgers!) :)
 
I think the House bill is posturing, to make it look like the Republicans brokered the deal rather than compromise in the Senate. It apparently contains a provision dropping the medical device tax, though, which (since it affects Obamacare) should be a non-starter for the Senate.. I guess we'll find out.
 
Just chaos on the House side. It's very difficult for the Senate to move forward if the House is trying to move their own bill. Under those circumstances, it's better for the Senate to just wait on the House bill because it takes so long for the Senate to move legislation on its own without unanimous consent.

Given that it's not even clear that House conservatives can pass a bill, and it's vanishingly unlikely that anything they can pass will be acceptable to Democrats, I have a real hard time seeing this end before the 17th. By jamming the Senate like this the House is running down the clock.
 
Just chaos on the House side. It's very difficult for the Senate to move forward if the House is trying to move their own bill. Under those circumstances, it's better for the Senate to just wait on the House bill because it takes so long for the Senate to move legislation on its own without unanimous consent.

Given that it's not even clear that House conservatives can pass a bill, and it's vanishingly unlikely that anything they can pass will be acceptable to Democrats, I have a real hard time seeing this end before the 17th. By jamming the Senate like this the House is running down the clock.

and that just happened, Senate suspended further talks as the await a bill from the House. Which will probably not pass.
 
Just chaos on the House side. It's very difficult for the Senate to move forward if the House is trying to move their own bill. Under those circumstances, it's better for the Senate to just wait on the House bill because it takes so long for the Senate to move legislation on its own without unanimous consent.

Given that it's not even clear that House conservatives can pass a bill, and it's vanishingly unlikely that anything they can pass will be acceptable to Democrats, I have a real hard time seeing this end before the 17th. By jamming the Senate like this the House is running down the clock.

The market seems to concur...
 
I feel like the markets will tank tomorrow morning and take tesla with it since our government is in such disarray. I sold about 25 percent of my November options and plan on picking them for a discount tomorrow or the next day ..... here is to hoping Somehow that move was a mistake .....
 
I feel like the markets will tank tomorrow morning and take tesla with it since our government is in such disarray. I sold about 25 percent of my November options and plan on picking them for a discount tomorrow or the next day ..... here is to hoping Somehow that move was a mistake .....

I am feeling the same way. I don't see how everything is magically going to come together after all this time. My shortest term calls are Dec 200s and I would have sold them today based on the recent developments but was too busy at work today :/