Guessing the reveal event date

[MartinAustin]

I think I heard Elon say his plans to begin shipping the Model 3 were for July 1st 2017, during an earnings conference call last year. That was the date he was asking all suppliers to use in their scheduling plans.

It has sounded like nothing has gone wrong with this plan and Tesla can actually start shipping on July 1st. (a Saturday)

The July 4th vacation day surely plays into the schedule... here are some thoughts on how it might play out.

1) It would be nice for Tesla employees to be able to drive their cars home in time for the July 4th day off, which is a Tuesday. Consequently the reveal/shipping day would be Monday July 3rd. Invites would be sent out a week before, which is Tesla's usual behaviour - June 26th.

But - a lot of employees take the day off on the day before or after July 4th if it is adjacent to a weekend. Thus a lot of employees wouldn't be around for July 3rd. The July 4th weekend is usually a bad time to get anything done. Would this make the July 3rd idea a bad one?

2) If Elon decides to wait until everyone has rested, the reveal event could be on Wednesday July 5th when everyone comes back to work. (This would mean that the initial shipment of cars would be under lock and key somewhere for the entire July 4th/weekend period.)

3) Or, they could push the reveal event one day to Thursday July 6th, since Thursdays lead to excellent TV coverage on Friday morning and throughout the weekend.

These guesses imply that production of the final cars is about to begin, given that the time taken to produce a car ranges from 2 to 7 days depending on how things go on the assembly line - especially during startup of a new model. Surely, some final parts have already been produced - e.g. wheels, window glass, seats and so on - and perhaps final body stamping are beginning, just to stack up somewhere at the factory.

4) Finally, the last thing to consider is that perhaps Elon was referring to a "production start" on July 1st. This would mean that the time taken to produce the cars would push the reveal date to the second week of July, given the disruption of the July 4th weekend. We could be talking about Thursday July 13th for the reveal/shipping event, and invites going out on Thursday July 6th.

Thoughts?

 

[EXOTIC1]

I don't think you'll see any M3 in july/august
late sept is my guess for any shipping other than employee orders

 

[S'toon]

I still say the final reveal will be July 31st.

 

[MogWV]

July 31st, starting at 11:59 pm PST.

Or more seriously, very late in the month. My guess is that July's deliveries will be much like the Model X's initial deliveries- a bare handful at the reveal event for Tesla executives/dignitaries. I'm guessing significant production on the line will be several weeks further out than that.

 

[BluestarE3]

My guesses:

• Final reveal in mid/late July
• Employee deliveries in July and August
• General deliveries begin in late September, starting with current owners on West Coast

 

[JeffK]

Elon has mentioned that a number of employee deliveries may or may not happen before the final reveal, just in case there are issues they need to work out.

 

[aronth5]

I think I heard Elon say his plans to begin shipping the Model 3 were for July 1st 2017, during an earnings conference call last year. That was the date he was asking all suppliers to use in their scheduling plans.

I don't believe Elon ever provided a specific date so assuming July 1st is a real date just leads to false optimism. My only expectation is there will be a reveal by the end of July that will include cars for employees only.
My guess is Thursday July 27th. Will be fun.

 

[montreid]

Guessing on dates, and the configurator timing.
Tesla Employees 25k all in -- say Tesla brand alone 15k which 1/3 will get M3. = 5k guess. With 'goal' of 1k/week, startup in July - That puts at earliest mid-Aug/early Sept for consumers. That times right for configurator to release in July for those to finalize and hit the production line after sorting priority and funding is finalized.

I'm thinking 1st week after holiday since employees out for the reveal and release of the configurator.

 

[daniel]

My guesses:

• Final reveal in mid/late July
• Employee deliveries in July and August
• General deliveries begin in late September, starting with current owners on West Coast

The above seems reasonable to me.

 

[EVie'sDad]

I cannot corroborate the story, but thought I would pass along the info nevertheless. The mrs. told me on Friday that she witnessed a car carrier leaving the Fremont factory plant with a load of freshly manufactured model 3s. She was following it as it got onto the freeway, but was unable to snap a picture as she was driving alone and the truck stopped shortly thereafter at the weigh-station and she did not want to be cited for pulling off the highway to take the pic. She did say they still had the filmy skin on the hoods so she was not sure about the colors, but there was a mix of them according to her. Could this be an outbound test group headed for wider distribution, or preparing for placing them in the show stores?

 

[FlatSix911]

I still say the final reveal will be July 31st.

... at Midnight PST

 

[dsvick]

The July 1st date was the date that the suppliers had to have parts completed by, not the date that cars would be delivered. IIRC, in the shareholders meeting he mentioned "late July" for a delivery event. So, you're most likely looking at the 3rd or 4th week of July.

 

[Mkorpal]

I don't believe Elon ever provided a specific date so assuming July 1st is a real date just leads to false optimism. My only expectation is there will be a reveal by the end of July that will include cars for employees only.
My guess is Thursday July 27th. Will be fun.

This is my guess as well. Gotta have that friday for the 20% jum in stock price.

 

[TEG]

...Tesla Employees 25k all in -- say Tesla brand alone 15k which 1/3 will get M3. = 5k guess...

Did you count Space-X and Solar-City employees too?
Also, could employees order 2 ?

 

[happyguy]

I cannot corroborate the story, but thought I would pass along the info nevertheless. The mrs. told me on Friday that she witnessed a car carrier leaving the Fremont factory plant with a load of freshly manufactured model 3s. She was following it as it got onto the freeway, but was unable to snap a picture as she was driving alone and the truck stopped shortly thereafter at the weigh-station and she did not want to be cited for pulling off the highway to take the pic. She did say they still had the filmy skin on the hoods so she was not sure about the colors, but there was a mix of them according to her. Could this be an outbound test group headed for wider distribution, or preparing for placing them in the show stores?

No chance. With so many eyes/spies in the area right now and no other sightings about this? I call this BS

 

[JeffK]

Did you count Space-X and Solar-City employees too?
Also, could employees order 2 ?

Tesla Model 3: data shows that Tesla and SpaceX employees made over 10,000 reservations
was previously guessing around 10k

 

[jsrawa]

Tesla Model 3: data shows that Tesla and SpaceX employees made over 10,000 reservations
was previously guessing around 10k

There may be 10k but there are a lot of unknown factors here. Some of these employees may wait for AWD, etc. So the initial employee deliveries will probably be limited to those wanting RWD.

 

[daniel]

There may be 10k but there are a lot of unknown factors here. Some of these employees may wait for AWD, etc. So the initial employee deliveries will probably be limited to those wanting RWD.

Just a guess here, but I'm thinking that most of the employees don't have deep pockets and will buy the RWD.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The last possible day in July!

 

[boiler81]

Just a guess here, but I'm thinking that most of the employees don't have deep pockets and will buy the RWD.

Since were all guessing, I'd expect the employees are getting deep discounts on their cars since they are being ask to be "beta testers".
I'm guessing the reveal will be on the 31st, as they need all the time they can to get the new line up and running.