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Highest production VIN in the wild
- Thread starter insaneoctane
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- Model 3
Of course not. If “POOBREATH” was a valid VIN I’d take it.
Callahan
Member
How reliable are Inside EV's numbers? I know Tesla had difficulty with the ramp, but 712 seems awfully low. Granted, they haven't included December in their totals yet...
DennisLevitt
Member
Maybe I don't understand it, but I would seriously question that chart. For January - November, it shows Model S and Model X sales totalling 40,100 for both. I think I've read Tesla has delivered 73,000 through September. Does it make sense they've delivered only 40K through November if they're going to do approximately 100,000 for the year? They're planning on a December to Remember?
Callahan
Member
Agreed, the numbers seem wonky. Looking forward to the Q4 call.
Seeking Alpha predicts 5,000 units a week by March: Tesla Model 3 Ramp: 5,000 To 10,000 - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Garlan Garner
Banned
VIN #2000 was sitting in this forum/thread at the end of November.......now VIN #3000 is sitting in the forum/thread at the end of December. I'm not sure who's math you want to use, but that's 1000 numbers away.
Now.....How many cars where produced ? Who knows? Oh yeah....Tesla does, however they aren't saying very much for some reason.
That's why posting VIN #'s and the number of cars produced don't line up. I've always challenged this and people came to the conclusion that I was just on the side of bad news. etc.
What numbers would you like to use knowing the title of this thread?
What numbers would you like to use knowing the title of this thread?
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For those of you who have not kept so up to date with production and deliveries tracking, let me try and help clear a few things up:
- InsideEVs has a very good track record on estimating US deliveries. Their numbers have proven to be very close to real life. If you check the text below all their tables, they disclose how much they had to retroactively fix in their estimates and it's not bad at all.
- Notice I said "US deliveries"? That's what InsideEVs is tracking. I believe this is a large part of the confusion on this thread. Tesla has probably delivered ~100k S/X in 2017 globally, but InsideEVs shows you the US numbers only. We track European numbers here on TMC using official registrations databases of dozens of countries. The "rest of the world" is the difference between the totals, InsideEVs and TMC European numbers.
- Model 3 has been only delivered in the US so far, so, knowing how fairly accurate InsideEVs are, we can take the ~700 they have until December as a solid guesstimate. (Note the smaller sample size of 3s may mean a higher error rate though). This low number is not at odds with reality at all. During the Q3 ER and conference call, Tesla was very clear that they didn't expect the battery module assembly automation to get fixed until December, so production and delivery numbers were very much expected to stay in the abysmal few hundred per month range until then. Not a shocker.
- From all the information on Reddit, TMC, drone flyovers, and customer accounts, it is clear that the manufacturing issue has now been fixed and production has seriously picked up in December. The accelerating pace of VIN issuance is further evidence of that. Once again, VINs are not produced or delivered in sequence. Tesla had 2600 VINs issued at the end of October, 3800 at the end of November, 4800 by mid-December and jumped to 8400 by end of the year. That does not in any way indicate 8400 M3s produced in 2017, but bodes extremely well for production ramp expectations.
- All in all, the TMC consensus in the appropriate threads seems to be 1500-ish M3 deliveries in Q4 with maybe as high as 2500-3000 produced and exiting the year above a 1k/week production rate. Should put us right back on track for 5k/week by sometime in March.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Sorry, I have never considered Seeking Alpha as a reliable source for anything except where the 'shorts' are hoping to go.
I was going to post the same thing. People confuse US sales with worldwide sales all the time. Of course for the Model 3 the two are the same at the moment.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Tesla is going to post their numbers shortly. Then we will know who's article is the closest to the actual production and VIN facts. <-----see what I did there? I inserted the word VIN otherwise I would get in trouble for not talking about VINs in this thread. lol
Reciprocity
Active Member
700+ in the last 7 days and a 1k/week pace on the last few days of production. No clue the exact amount but those 2 numbers matter most because that is where they started yesterday going forward.
Their report said that last couple of days in December, they hit 1000/week rate as long as they continue.
Garlan Garner
Banned
