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Looks like Tesla registered another 3500+ VINs Model 3 VINs on Twitter
That's very good sign. Maybe we could wish about that many deliveries in January. It'd be <1000/week, still plenty short from the 5000 but better than <100 we've seen so far.
Could be EOY effect.A very good sign indeed. Tesla registered about 1000 new VINs on the 19th and then 3500 more VINs just 9 days later. The window between the previous registrations was about a month, so Tesla registering more VINs after just 9 days appears to hold some promise.
A very good sign indeed. Tesla registered about 1000 new VINs on the 19th and then 3500 more VINs just 9 days later. The window between the previous registrations was about a month, so Tesla registering more VINs after just 9 days appears to hold some promise.
After only 345 Model 3 in November. I would have been happy about 1,000 Model 3.I agree the progress and car movements are happening but at a slower pace than I anticipated and what everyone thinks.
After only 345 Model 3 in November. I would have been happy about 1,000 Model 3.
But that looks like much more right now.
So I am very happy and looking forward to the real numbers for December.
He gets his Model 3 on 3.1. and that has the VIN 3041.
Is that enough proof to enter it?
Any non existing employed or Tesla owner receiving their car yet? Volumes we are seeing suggests this is many months away
We are going to need more evidence than that. It is a good sign but so far, I was expecting a lot more action and videos from Fremont parking lot. I agree the progress and car movements are happening but at a slower pace than I anticipated and what everyone thinks. I.e. if you make 100 cars a day, you expect 10 transporters a day to take those to various delivery centers. That's about 500 cars a week. If we're in 2-3k cars a week, we would see 20 to 60 car transporters in that parking lot every day. I'm not accounting for deliveries taking place directly at the factory but you get the idea. More transporters and movement is needed at the factory parking lot at any given time during business hours. So far, every drone video we've seen had minor to moderate amount of movement and not something demonstrative of 1000+ cars per week production. If you have seen different, please share. I'd love to be proven wrong on this.
I interpret this differently. Unless every shot is this many transporters, were not up to 1000 per week.No, because the ramp will be exponential.
You would only see all the transporters if the drone hovered over the facility 24/7.
It is very promising that a single snapshot in time showed this many transporters.
You don’t have the data. What if there are 100 transporters every hour all night long?I interpret this differently. Unless every shot is this many transporters, were not up to 1000 per week.
You don’t have the data. What if there are 100 transporters every hour all night long?
You are basing your estimates on one 15 minute snapshot. You need to know the average rate transporters leave the facility.
You right, I don't know and you don't know. What we have are sporadic facts. Those facts are multiple videos on different days and only one of them had transporters and significant movement. And highest vin count in range of ~2.6-2.7k total. Together, they're far from 1k per week. I'd love for you to be right. I had same hopes as you Right now but in q3. I.e. we don't have all the data on vins, tmc is small community with little data on tesla, all the news sites are wrong and tesla did make 1.5k cars in q3 but in the beginning of October, tesla stated ~360 cars delivered and production issues were blocking manufacturing.You don’t have the data. What if there are 100 transporters every hour all night long?
You are basing your estimates on one 15 minute snapshot. You need to know the average rate transporters leave the facility.
One more week of another 3500 VIN registrations and I'll be feeling quite good; two more consecutive weeks and I'm one smug little bull.
Indeed, Tesla's official Q4 announcement is ~ 5 days away, the next batch of VIN is 1 week away if we think this 3500 new VINs mean what they mean. Lets all chill for a week and just wait and see what comes next.I think that most (never all!) of us can agree that if Tesla keeps registering 3500+ VIN a week, we are well into the ramp. One more week of another 3500 VIN registrations and I'll be feeling quite good; two more consecutive weeks and I'm one smug little bear.
It depends on which line you’re mentally placing yourself in. If it’s owner, and you’re planning on LR with PUP, but not any as yet unavailable options, yes the line does seem to be moving fast! If you’re waiting for something not yet available, your line hasn’t budged. But hopefully the possible speed of that first line means it won’t be too long for all the other lines to get movingThe invitation to order date is very much affected by the fraction of people who want the current (one and only) model choice. My feeling is that a lot of people are delaying their orders to buy a different trim, so the line appears to be moving fast.