Highest production VIN in the wild

[smartypnz]

Two kinds of people in this world......

1. Those that absolutely positively desperately need to see VIN numbers increase at an astronomic rate.

2. Those that want their car done right.

Welcome to Tesla
... not your everyday car manufacturer

(there are those that feel you must spit the product out the door no matter what)

 

[Garlan Garner]

Exactly. Until there are facts, good or bad, everything else is speculation.

But there are facts.

Tesla says that there are bottlenecks. They only sold 200+ cars since July.

Those are FACTS. Those are huge facts that can yield conversation.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Two kinds of people in this world......

1. Those that absolutely positively desperately need to see VIN numbers increase at an astronomic rate.

2. Those that want their car done right.

Welcome to Tesla
... not your everyday car manufacturer

(there are those that feel you must spit the product out the door no matter what)

There is at least 3rd person that wants both. That's me.

Those 2 lines don't disagree with one another.

 

[D-egg-O]

You'd think new VINs are being spotted left and right with the number of notifications I'm getting from this thread.

As I tell my offspring, "smell the flowers.....blow out the candles"

 

[jelloslug]

But there are facts.

Tesla says that there are bottlenecks. They only sold 200+ cars since July.

Those are FACTS. Those are huge facts that can yield conversation.

They sold 200+ cars through the end of the 3rd quarter. We don't know how many more have been sold since then.

 

[Runt8]

Negative slanted theories? I'm basing it off reality of facts we know.

We know that VIN 521 was spotted September 30. We know that not a single Model 3 with a higher VIN has been confirmed in the three weeks since then, so at the very most, we have 500 Model 3s? At this point we were supposed to have 1500 made in September and then, if the ramp schedule followed an S curve, anywhere from 2000-7000 made in October. We're 12 days from the end of October and we aren't even seeing the September numbers still.

Trust me, I was VERY hopeful before the Q3 report that they were ahead of schedule, stockpiling cars and ready to unleash them to the masses as soon as software was completed, and that I'd get my car in November. Then they announced 220 deliveries, putting them at least a full month behind schedule at that point (even more now). I brought myself back down to earth. I had been telling everyone I know it would probably be November or December that I'd be getting my car. Now I'm accepting the reality that it's just not going to happen this year unless something changed big time in the next couple weeks. Even Elon said to expect the worst now, and said the first non employees (current owners) would get the configurator in 6-8 weeks (which would be November 17-December 1).

Feel free to keep telling yourself that they've ramped up production but just aren't delivering them, hiding them away in a warehouse or something, but I am pretty sure if they were making them, they would be delivering ASAP to get paid for them to get investors off their backs and to get some good press.

Show me a picture of VIN 1000+ in the wild and I might start to get excited again

Yes, negative slanted theory. Just because 521 is the highest number that's been reported here, doesn't mean there aren't higher ones. You say "confirmed" as if there's some employee at Tesla whose job is to come here and add the VIN to this thread.

Also, counting delays in months doesn't make any sense when following an S curve. A 1 month delay at the beginning of the curve might be a couple hour delay later on.

And for the record, I never said anything about stockpiling them away in a warehouse - I'm sure they are delivering them as quickly as they are made. My only contention is that the data we have is very unreliable, so trying to extrapolate it into a realistic result (positive or negative) is destined to fail.

 

[Garlan Garner]

They sold 200+ cars through the end of the 3rd quarter. We don't know how many more have been sold since then.

It does not matter how many cars they sold if it was less than 1500 as stated by Elon. Look at the headlines related to this. I didn't write them.

We have facts - all stated by Tesla.

That's the only problem. It has nothing to do with a ramp or VIN number counts or S curve nor anything else.

 

[mrkymarc]

New VIN's registered with the NHSTA:
Highest Production VIN seen

Up to 2136. Could be a sign of accelerating ramp soonish.

 

[Garlan Garner]

New VIN's registered with the NHSTA:
Highest Production VIN seen

Up to 2136. Could be a sign of accelerating ramp soonish.

What?

They are talking about what numbers look like - upside down on a calculator.

This is getting ridiculous. There isn't even a link. Some guy posted some VIN numbers that he says exists.

Let me post one.

5YJ3E1EA9HF400000

That one looks like 400,000 to me. Right? I should have my car by now then.

 

[Max*]

What?

They are talking about a number upside down on a calculator.

If only one had the ability to scroll higher up thread.... if only...

Highest Production VIN seen

 

[N5329K]

That’s funny, what if the hold up is software?

Software in cars might be a double jinx.
Robin

 

[jelloslug]

It does not matter how many cars they sold if it was less than 1500 as stated by Elon. Look at the headlines related to this. I didn't write them.

We have facts - all stated by Tesla.

That's the only problem. It has nothing to do with a ramp or VIN number counts or S curve nor anything else.

What is your point?

 

[Garlan Garner]

What is your point?

Really?

I mean really? They didn't produce this "imaginary tesla provided number" of cars that article after article stated. The quarter was over in September. Fact. They posted an S curve. They put dates to their S curve. I didn't. No one else did.

"Shhhh. lets not talk about that though. Lets sift through their words and find some loopholes and excuses. Lets just ignore all of that because......."

See...we can't even start with the truth at the beginning of the wonderful creation called the Model 3. I wouldn't mind saying ( 10 years from now ) that "Even though the Model 3 production started off rocky....Tesla eventually knocked it out of the park and even surpassed the IPhone as the invention of the century". I wouldn't mind saying " Unlike Tesla - many EV companies stuggle to overcome production woes as Tesla works through its issues - they don't give up.".
I plan on saying to all other EV vendors......"Don't worry about production woes - go ask Tesla how to get out of those problems......they have had many...they know how to do it". But we can't even talk about the truth here.

Many here say...."Shhhhh.....they aren't having any issues or the issues aren't their fault or ........there's no problem - its an S curve, its an S curve".

 

[gregincal]

I'm not sure why people are disagreeing with my last post.
Are you disagreeing with the 3,005 deliveries Oppenheimer forecast for 2017?
Surely you're not disagreeing with the quote of Elon saying he was shooting for 100-200k 3's produced in 2017? I'm confused.

"Sounds like even that may be optimistic." That's what I disagreed with.

 

[N5329K]

Really?

I mean really? They didn't produce this "imaginary tesla provided number" of cars that article after article stated. The quarter was over in September. Fact. They posted an S curve. They put dates to their S curve. I didn't. No one else did.

"Shhhh. lets not talk about that though. Lets sift through their words and find some loopholes and excuses. Lets just ignore all of that because......."

See...we can't even start with the truth at the beginning of the wonderful creation called the Model 3. I wouldn't mind saying ( 10 years from now ) that "Even though the Model 3 production started off rocky....Tesla eventually knocked it out of the park and even surpassed the IPhone as the invention of the century". I wouldn't mind saying " Unlike Tesla - many EV companies stuggle to overcome production woes as Tesla works through its issues - they don't give up.".

But many say...."Shhhhh.....they aren't having any issues or the issues aren't their fault or ........".

I think the truth is EM set extremely aggressive goals and missed them. That's his MO. The net result is cars will show up in volume later than he said (hoped), and later than reservation holders might like, but sooner than Tesla itself projected not so long ago, and sooner than the competition believed possible for a "non-car company" to achieve. That is also EM's MO.
Robin

 

[McHoffa]

As an East coast, non-owner, did you realistically think you would have delivery before the end of year? What does your estimate currently say?

It says November - January. If the ramp up was on time, yes, I would definitely get it, because that's how the math works out. if they really got to 20,000 in December, plus the cars leading up to that, it would be about 40k this year. That would easily cover everyone that wants the first build configuration that stood in line in the US and employees and current owners.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I think the truth is EM set extremely aggressive goals and missed them. That's his MO. The net result is cars will show up in volume later than he said (hoped), and later than reservation holders might like, but sooner than Tesla itself projected not so long ago, and sooner than the competition believed possible for a "non-car company" to achieve. That is also EM's MO.
Robin

I absolutely agree. Thanks for the truth.

 

[Garlan Garner]

It says November - January. If the ramp up was on time, yes, I would definitely get it, because that's how the math works out. if they really got to 20,000 in December, plus the cars leading up to that, it would be about 40k this year. That would easily cover everyone that wants the first build configuration that stood in line in the US and employees and current owners.

Absolutely. Now the truth is rolling.

 

[McHoffa]

Yes, negative slanted theory. Just because 521 is the highest number that's been reported here, doesn't mean there aren't higher ones. You say "confirmed" as if there's some employee at Tesla whose job is to come here and add the VIN to this thread.

No, but with the number of people running around to take pictures of every Model 3 they see parked, you'd think we would have seen SOMETHING above that 521 in the past 3 weeks if they were ramping up.

Also, counting delays in months doesn't make any sense when following an S curve. A 1 month delay at the beginning of the curve might be a couple hour delay later on.

If the S curve shifts ahead two months, then the point at which they get to the 1500 per month, 5,000 per month, 10,000 per month, and 5,000 per week would also shift forward two months. Yeah, once they get to full speed, it's full speed, but if the ramp up is two months late starting, the entire S curve moves

 

[avoigt]

No, but with the number of people running around to take pictures of every Model 3 they see parked, you'd think we would have seen SOMETHING above that 521 in the past 3 weeks if they were ramping up.

If the S curve shifts ahead two months, then the point at which they get to the 1500 per month, 5,000 per month, 10,000 per month, and 5,000 per week would also shift forward two months. Yeah, once they get to full speed, it's full speed, but if the ramp up is two months late starting, the entire S curve moves

That prediction about the S curve form and unit delay is not necessarily correct. The delay we see today will not necessarily be the delay in units and time we see in the months to come. If things work out smooth in the 6 months its even possible that they are next year faster than predicted but for clarity its impossible to know that at this stage...... way to early.