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Highest production VIN in the wild
- Thread starter insaneoctane
- Start date
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- Tags
- Model 3
Heater that goes to 11 and no AC ...
Pinot.Noir
Member
Being old has its benefits....they are just difficult to find.
ProphetM
Member
Not quite highest, but VIN 1077 was spotted today on a truck full of Teslas in Barstow, according to a Facebook post on the Model 3 group.
BobbyKings
S85D > M3P > S Plaid
Gtoffo
Member
Another very good indicator. If we reach any meaningful weekly rate we should see some change there.
This is the best indicator we have.
We can assume they register new set when previous one starts to ran out (whatever that means, even if only half used).
The rate of registering new batches, and the size of those batches, should indicate the current production rate.
We can assume they register new set when previous one starts to ran out (whatever that means, even if only half used).
The rate of registering new batches, and the size of those batches, should indicate the current production rate.
Ulmo
Active Member
There is plenty of "what ifs", this is the best we have.
When the highest registered VIN was 2600, there was no way Tesla produced 3000 M3s, now this becomes a possibility.
As production contines, they will need to register new VINs.
If production rate improves, they will have to increase the batch size.
When the highest registered VIN was 2600, there was no way Tesla produced 3000 M3s, now this becomes a possibility.
As production contines, they will need to register new VINs.
If production rate improves, they will have to increase the batch size.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Likely IMO. For Model S and X VIN gets allocated shortly after confirmed configuration (as soon as next day) while the car doesn't even enter production for a while.
RTPEV
Active Member
Yes, but it's a pipeline and even if a physical car isn't being physically built, the process has begun. They certainly wouldn't turn on the configurator for a large batch of people if they weren't reasonably assured of their ability to start construction of those vehicles within a reasonable amount of time, whatever that time was. Otherwise they would have simply requested all VINs and turned the configurator on for all of us already. The configuration rate is probably a very good indicator of the production rate 6-8 weeks out (or whatever the time frame is), and that's very meaningful.
What would be even more meaningful (but only at this particular time of the year) was whether those were 2017 or 2018 VINs. I suspect 2018, but if they were 2017 that would be very telling indeed. I'll have to see if I can dig up the discussion thread on that VIN query tool and see if they mentioned.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Technically it's all a pipeline, and at the very beginning of it is over 400,000 reservation holders. The problem is that VIN in the 4000's means nothing as they could be allowing configurations for well into next quarter production - my first MS took ~3 months from confirmation to production. It's also easier to delay production on your own employees who can't complain due to the NDA. If they had registered 30,000 VINs, now that would be news even if it the cars don't show up until end of Q1'18. According to the original curve 4000 should have been delivered by now, and 5000 per WEEK should have been happening very soon.
I'm not saying anything about whether Model 3 production is going well or not, I'm just saying that we cannot draw any conclusions from VIN 4K being registered.
Interesting. Since we’ve seen delivered VINs to 11XX (many days ago) and 10 days left in Nov I’d have to guess they might get to VINs around 2000 in Nov. I’ll bet they have to go in for another tranche above 3800 in Dec. could they get to 5000 in 2017? I usually don’t prognosticate... but this seems encouraging.VIN 003840 (the last one mentioned in the twitter conversation) is for a 2017
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I suspect that the VINs are tied to parts tracking on the factory floor, that must pull the parts from the wearhouse and stage them when they're preparing the next batch of builds, and VIN is likely used to track which parts are assigned to which car. The block of VINs that they're requesting each time could be linked to the limit of how many parts they can stage on the factory floor. If they do hit a few thousand a week in Dec, we'll see new VINs registrations coming fast and furious for sure.
