I agree with all your points (and BTW - it’s nice to be talking to one of the few who’s actually sat in it!).. except... the right time.
I understand the reason why late 2020 is the case but the earlier the better. Fall 2019 would be ideal.
Edit: I just watched one of the test ride videos on YouTube. Spectacular. The ride height difference is immediately obvious.
This vehicle is EXACTLY what I want. I just need to get from this fall until it’s ready - my current lease is up; so I’ll likely do a 24 month lease of something to bridge the gap. A Model 3 lease sure would be great.
Right time is very relative when it comes to Tesla. Model 3 was revealed in March of 2016. It did not have any kind of decent volume until August of 2018. That’s over two years later.
If Tesla gave a closer date it would osbourne sales of the 3. My opinion is it will come sooner than advertised but the dates given were for business purposes.
Tesla had to juggle
-Features
-Price
-Release date
And not alienate
-Wall Street
-Current buyers
-Future buyers
Now what to do in your situation and my situation is the hard part. My Volt lease is up in Oct this year.
I have to choose between
1.) Reserve Y and see what happens then.
2.) Get a Model 3 now while it is on sale and half tax credits.
3.) Lease another Volt or Bolt before Tax credit is cut in half for Chevy and evaluate again.
Unfortunately, Tesla has the most expensive leases out of anyone. Situation varies depending on deals and ability to deduct off taxes.
Rule of thumb I like to say is
Lease 3 Tesla’s in 9 years or own two outright.
In your case some things you could do is
1.) Consider and keep the Model 3. 3750 tax credit now and most models are on sale until Monday. Reserve it and push off delivery until as late as possible to minimize extra payments.
2.) Buy a strip down Model 3 with resell in mind when Y is out.
3.) Buy a cheap used S and resell when Y is out. Many leases will end this fall.
4.) Lease a Volt or Bolt for cheap.
I think everyone should get into a Tesla ASAP. Once you are there, you can be choosier when to upgrade or get a second Tesla.