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How confident do you feel about the sales of Model Y?

How will Model Y Sales fare in the long term?

  • What Elon said. Model Y sales will exceed sales of combo of Model S, X, and 3

    Votes: 76 60.8%
  • Model Y will exceed the sales of Model 3 but not combo of all S,X,3

    Votes: 35 28.0%
  • Model 3 will exceed the sales of Model Y

    Votes: 13 10.4%
  • Model S will exceed the sales of Model Y

    Votes: 1 0.8%
  • Model X will exceed the sales of Model Y

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    125
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Well, in the presentation, Elon said he is confident that the sales of Model Y will exceed Model S, X, and 3 combined.

I am a bit skeptical and I don't know why he said it, but for some reason, I think Model 3 will still exceed the sales of Model Y.
Model 3 is cheaper, quicker and has longer range. I feel the Model 3 will stay top. What do you think? Do you agree with what Elon said?

Time will tell but let's speculate!

Correct me wrong, if I heard it wrong. I think I heard it near the end of the presentation.
==============
I agree. The Model Y is just a stretched Model 3 with an extra row of seats jammed in. Will not sell well.
 
Think the extra two seats in the back are genius.

Y is not designed to carry 7 full sized adults on a comfortable cross country trip. You need a much bigger vehicle to accomplish that (Escalade/Suburban) It is designed for those edge cases when you need to pick up your kids and their friends up from school, to take a group to soccer practice 10 miles away etc.

When not in use, those seats simply fold away, giving that area over to storage for Costco trips or to the garden center.

When carrying 7, there will be almost no room for extra stuff. The Frunk will come in super convenient to carry some extra gear.

The consumers have spoken. The CUV style of vehicle is fast becoming the go to car for most of the world.

If it can tow and carry a roof rack, most people will find it to be just big enough for a great lifestyle vehicle.

While no car is perfect for everybody, the Y will be good for many.
 
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I agree with all your points (and BTW - it’s nice to be talking to one of the few who’s actually sat in it!).. except... the right time.

I understand the reason why late 2020 is the case but the earlier the better. Fall 2019 would be ideal.

Edit: I just watched one of the test ride videos on YouTube. Spectacular. The ride height difference is immediately obvious.

This vehicle is EXACTLY what I want. I just need to get from this fall until it’s ready - my current lease is up; so I’ll likely do a 24 month lease of something to bridge the gap. A Model 3 lease sure would be great. :)

Right time is very relative when it comes to Tesla. Model 3 was revealed in March of 2016. It did not have any kind of decent volume until August of 2018. That’s over two years later.

If Tesla gave a closer date it would osbourne sales of the 3. My opinion is it will come sooner than advertised but the dates given were for business purposes.

Tesla had to juggle
-Features
-Price
-Release date

And not alienate
-Wall Street
-Current buyers
-Future buyers

Now what to do in your situation and my situation is the hard part. My Volt lease is up in Oct this year.

I have to choose between
1.) Reserve Y and see what happens then.
2.) Get a Model 3 now while it is on sale and half tax credits.
3.) Lease another Volt or Bolt before Tax credit is cut in half for Chevy and evaluate again.

Unfortunately, Tesla has the most expensive leases out of anyone. Situation varies depending on deals and ability to deduct off taxes.

Rule of thumb I like to say is
Lease 3 Tesla’s in 9 years or own two outright.

In your case some things you could do is
1.) Consider and keep the Model 3. 3750 tax credit now and most models are on sale until Monday. Reserve it and push off delivery until as late as possible to minimize extra payments.
2.) Buy a strip down Model 3 with resell in mind when Y is out.
3.) Buy a cheap used S and resell when Y is out. Many leases will end this fall.
4.) Lease a Volt or Bolt for cheap.

I think everyone should get into a Tesla ASAP. Once you are there, you can be choosier when to upgrade or get a second Tesla. :)
 
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I’ll clarify again what I said. The rear seats appear to be designed for children not adults.

I didn’t have the chance to measure width and height so I couldn’t say WHAT size children but I felt they were upgrades to the Model S rear facing seats.

If you were a family just starting or has kids in car seats when you buy the Y you will get your monies worth.

However, I don’t expect the 7 seat option to be very popular overall unless it folds flat.

I think the 7 seats are an option they still need to refine and won’t be ready for launch which is implied anyway on the site.

I didn’t see any restraint systems so I stress again - the Y 3rd row seats are clearly under development.

What it can and cannot do I am certain is still TBD.

From pics I've seen they do sit flat. That's probably how most of them will sit.
 
Smaller men fit just as well as smaller women, don't they?

Your thinking about tiny men. A smaller man is an average woman, so borderline for this scenario. Midgets and dwarfs fit (Although I'm unclear if "dwarf" are term used for actual people anymore). I better stick with "little people".

All teenagers fit, regardless of size.

All this information is in the Model Y FAQ extended addition.
 
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Reactions: Maximilien
I have had one in six years 121K miles. Cost $175 for the Ranger to come and fix it. But I've shown my car so often that it probably has 3X the normal amount of openings and closings.
I've had two in 61k miles. As it happens it was the same one: front passenger side. First time the SLC service center replaced the whole handle because they didn't have parts. The second time the wire broke where it entered one of the microswitches, which is the most common problem. The Ranger replaced the microswitch harness (two microswitches) and the paddle gear, as long as he was at it. The old paddle gear showed no signs of wear.

Model S door handles sure seem to be random when it comes to failures but my sense is that newer versions have fewer failures than the earlier ones. Regardless, it isn't something I worry about on my out-of-warranty car — if one breaks the Ranger comes and fixes it (after watching him disassemble the door then remove the window and door handle assembly, I'm not about to do it myself).

Haven't heard of many Model 3 door handle problems, so I presume that one can expect the Model Y door handles to be relatively trouble-free.
 
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MX, I know you're smart enough to discern I'm not directly comparing the RAV4 to any Tesla. I'm merely contradicting the idea that third row seating in a midsize SUV is somehow a novel idea.
I don't think anyone called it a novel idea. However, many mainstream small to midsize SUVs (aka. CUVs) such as the Toyota RAV4 and the Honda CR-V do lack third row seating. I agree with "@Uncle Paul" that adding a third row to the Model Y was a genius move on Tesla's part, even if those seats prove to be very cramped. Tesla could have easily chosen to omit this option. One benefit of Elon Musk being a father of five is that he has shown himself to be conscious of families' desires to have maximum flexibility in carrying more passengers at times.

We've gotten good use of the rear facing seats in our Model S. I like that the cargo volume of the Model Y is almost identical to that of our "classic" Model S with its giant frunk, while offering "real" (even if cramped) seats in the back. A Model Y with AWD and seven seats could work quite well for us. (We have no plans to acquire another vehicle in the next couple of years, but it's great to see more EV options becoming available.)
 
Another variable that can affect the Model Y sales is the number of buyers who already have Teslas.

Many people waited for the Model 3 and I believe many did not own Model S or X. Gotta admit that many waiters for 3 were big Tesla fans and most likely they have the car now. So the number of potential buyers is saturated to certain extent.

I can see one sedan(Model 3) and one SUV/crossover (Model Y) per family but will they be able to pull another trigger for the second Tesla?
 
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I don't think anyone called it a novel idea. However, many mainstream small to midsize SUVs (aka. CUVs) such as the Toyota RAV4 and the Honda CR-V do lack third row seating. I agree with "@Uncle Paul" that adding a third row to the Model Y was a genius move on Tesla's part, even if those seats prove to be very cramped. Tesla could have easily chosen to omit this option. One benefit of Elon Musk being a father of five is that he has shown himself to be conscious of families' desires to have maximum flexibility in carrying more passengers at times.

We've gotten good use of the rear facing seats in our Model S. I like that the cargo volume of the Model Y is almost identical to that of our "classic" Model S with its giant frunk, while offering "real" (even if cramped) seats in the back. A Model Y with AWD and seven seats could work quite well for us. (We have no plans to acquire another vehicle in the next couple of years, but it's great to see more EV options becoming available.)

When the only people small enough to use those seats, will require safety seats of some sort, which also won't fit, then I don't know what the real purpose is. Maybe that's where you throw the friend you secretly dislike.