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How long until Tesla Superchargers are open to use by (almost) any EV?

How long until Tesla Superchargers are open to use by any EV?

  • Any day now

    Votes: 2 3.6%
  • 2-5 years

    Votes: 6 10.9%
  • 5-10 years

    Votes: 3 5.5%
  • Never

    Votes: 44 80.0%

  • Total voters
    55
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I'm sure this has been discussed before, but I wanted to see where we're at right now. . .

There's a reason why new Superchargers no longer say "For Tesla Use Only" like we have seen in years passed. The new ones all now say "EV Charging Only" like in the below example (250 kW Ehrenberg, AZ). So why change the vernacular? You must think that with all automobile manufacturers going EV over the next 5-15 years, this speaks to Tesla's inevitable (and rightful) cash grab on the rest of the population to lay it on them when they need Tesla's infrastructure. It'll require an adapter (maybe they add those to the station in an unobtrusive way?). But other than that, you'd think superchargers can be used by almost any EV in some capacity. Tesla would welcome the free money, right?

supercharger.png
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Rocky_H and cwerdna
Yes, Tesla offered SuperChargers to others and they refused...at that time several years ago. Today’s EV situation is far more accepting. Tesla has the most ubiquitous high-voltage charging network physically in place. With Tesla’s growth, vehicle density, high sales figures, SuperCharging rollout plans, etc., it makes sense for other providers to eat a little crow and leverage the network in place. No owner likes multiple adapters for the different charging protocols and there is a high cost to proliferating various ”not-quite-standards” like CCS, CHAdeMO, and so on.

In a rational world, I would expect Tesla and other providers to be able to hammer out a win-win deal within a couple of years. Good added revenue for Tesla, reduced costs for other providers, amazing benefit to all EV owners...it’s all good.

And I’m reminded that I’ve been completely wrong before.
 
Yes, Tesla offered SuperChargers to others and they refused...at that time several years ago.

Today’s EV situation is far more accepting. Tesla has the most ubiquitous high-voltage charging network physically in place. With Tesla’s growth, vehicle density, high sales figures, SuperCharging rollout plans, etc., it makes sense for other providers to eat a little crow and leverage the network in place. No owner likes multiple adapters for the different charging protocols and there is a high cost to proliferating various ”not-quite-standards” like CCS, CHAdeMO, and so on.

In a rational world, I would expect Tesla and other providers to be able to hammer out a win-win deal within a couple of years. Good added revenue for Tesla, reduced costs for other providers, amazing benefit to all EV owners...it’s all good.

And I’m reminded that I’ve been completely wrong before.
·
Bollinger Motors on Twitter "@elonmusk Can we use your charging stations?" Aug 16, 2018

Nikhil Chaudhary on Twitter "Tesla hasn't responded to them. Robert told me"
 
Really appreciate the thoughts/conversation on this!

And by all means, I wasn't suggesting a desire that other EVs encroach on our somewhat-thin charging turf in SoCal. I was just assuming it simply has to be inevitable - at some point - some day. Maybe I'm completely wrong! I'm envisioning Tesla really putting the hammer down on other EV owners (think, $1 per kWh) and making a quick buck for those that were desperate and needed a quick charge. The technical hurdles of tying your CC to the chargers and/or adapters, I don't think will be a major issue.

For the enormous amount of M3s that have been sold in this market, it's hard to believe how overwhelmed the SC infrastructure has NOT been (at least up until now). I charge at a SC maybe 4-6 times a month, at various times, on random days, at random SCs in SD County. I have had zero issues since May/June. Not that we're sitting on mounds of capacity, but it's been just fine (again, for now).
 
Sometime in the next 2 to 3 years, the number of non-Tesla DC fast charger locations will exceed the number of Tesla Supercharger locations. Once that happens, Tesla looses the marketing advantage of the Supercharger network. Non-Tesla sales personnel will be able to honestly say that buyers of their EVs can go anywhere that a Tesla can. In Canada, we are already seeing Petro Canada, a gas station operator, build out a cross-Canada network that goes to places not currently served by Tesla. A CHAdeMO adaptor will let a Tesla vehicle use the chargers at about 40 kW but a non-Tesla vehicle can access high power charging with a CCS connector.

So several questions arise, when will Tesla convert to CCS connectors on new production Teslas and when will they offer upgrade kits for existing vehicles? Every Supercharger will require retrofitting CCS cables before Tesla switches to the CCS connector.

The big strategic question is deciding the future of the Supercharger network. When fast DC charging ceases to be a marketing advantage should Tesla spin-off the Supercharger network or sell it to a company focused on EV charging infrastructure? Tesla management will need to focus on developing new vehicles, reducing cost and fixing their customer service as competition from new and legacy automakers intensifies. Supercharger development and management will continue to demand capital and be a distraction.
 
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Sometime in the next 2 to 3 years, the number of non-Tesla DC fast charger locations will exceed the number of Tesla Supercharger locations. Once that happens, Tesla looses the marketing advantage of the Supercharger network. Non-Tesla sales personnel will be able to honestly say that buyers of their EVs can go anywhere that a Tesla can. In Canada, we are already seeing Petro Canada, a gas station operator, build out a cross-Canada network that goes to places not currently served by Tesla. A CHAdeMO adaptor will let a Tesla vehicle use the chargers at about 40 kW but a non-Tesla vehicle can access high power charging with a CCS connector.

So several questions arise, when will Tesla convert to CCS connectors on new production Teslas and when will they offer upgrade kits for existing vehicles? Every Supercharger will require retrofitting CCS cables before Tesla switches to the CCS connector.

The big strategic question is deciding the future of the Supercharger network. When fast DC charging ceases to be a marketing advantage should Tesla spin-off the Supercharger network or sell it to a company focused on EV charging infrastructure? Tesla management will need to focus on developing new vehicles, reducing cost and fixing their customer service as competition from new and legacy automakers intensifies. Supercharger development and management will continue to demand capital and be a distraction.
I kind of hope we get CCS ports like in Europe. Around me there are tons of free level 3 charging options I can't take advantage of. Paying $650 for an adapter to use the slowest and worst standard is a terrible deal. The other nice option would be a CCS to Tesla adapter like they had in Europe for a whole, but both seem kind of unlikely, since if Tesla gives us CCS options in NA, they will start losing money to competing charging networks. I don't think Tesla can hold this competitive advantage forever, like you said maybe 3 or so years and DC fast charging in North America could start to look like it is in Europe. One big disadvantage we have though is the sheer size of landmass, particularly in Canada, coupled with a tiny population density. It'll be a lot harder for these third party charge stations to turn a profit.
 
After I wrote my comment above including the reference to Petro Canada I ran across another thread reporting expansion of the Supercharger network in Canada. Looks like Pacific to Atlantic travel is now possible using Superchargers. A string of SCs were put into service between December 12 and December 20 on the prairies and across Northern Ontario. Time to think about a summer road trip without having to use the CHAdeMO adaptor.

On a broader topic, we need high power EV charging in every community that has a gas station. Most chargers are built along major travel routes but full utilization of EVs depends on the same level of access to high power charging as gas vehicles have with gas stations. I don't think governments should build charging facilities but I do think they could enter into risk sharing agreements to support installation of charging facilities in smaller communities.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: doghousePVD
Sometime in the next 2 to 3 years, the number of non-Tesla DC fast charger locations will exceed the number of Tesla Supercharger locations.

Did someone pledge to build about 20,000 new CCS chargers over the next two years?

Last I checked, in the U.S., although there might pedantically be more locations at some point, right now, there are an order of magnitude fewer actual chargers. At last count, EVGo and ElectrifyAmerica had about 1,500 actual chargers between them. Tesla has over 15,000.

Of course, in Canada, where the government is putting in many hundreds of new CCS charging stations, CCS might just get ahead, but even if you use all of North America, CCS and CHAdeMO will still be almost lost in the noise, numbers-wise.

It certainly doesn't seem to me that the supercharger network will cease to be a major competitive advantage any time soon.
 
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dgatwood, I said "the number of non-Tesla DC fast charger locations" while you are referring to the number of chargers. CCS coverage is important because it shows where non-Tesla vehicles can travel and use high power DC chargers. The Ford dealer selling an electric Mustang will be able to show the customer a map that is just a broad as Tesla's in the next 2 to 3 years.
The number of
actual chargers
is not relevant until the population of CCS vehicles grows enough to create problems like those experienced with Superchargers on holiday weekends.

BTW, the Canadian government is not putting in hundreds of chargers but they are providing subsidies to companies that install and operate chargers.
 
Did someone pledge to build about 20,000 new CCS chargers over the next two years?

Last I checked, in the U.S., although there might pedantically be more locations at some point, right now, there are an order of magnitude fewer actual chargers. At last count, EVGo and ElectrifyAmerica had about 1,500 actual chargers between them. Tesla has over 15,000.

Of course, in Canada, where the government is putting in many hundreds of new CCS charging stations, CCS might just get ahead, but even if you use all of North America, CCS and CHAdeMO will still be almost lost in the noise, numbers-wise.

It certainly doesn't seem to me that the supercharger network will cease to be a major competitive advantage any time soon.

Agreed. I live near the Livermore California outlet mall. At the Mall Tesla has 20 Urban Supercharger stalls plus 2 destination chargers, and Electrify America has 12 of its stalls right next to the supercharger stalls. This include one of the few 350 Kw chargers. The Tesla stalls are heavily used. The EAs are usually empty.

In addition, on the other side of the highways is a near complete 14 stall Supercharger location next to the Target. There are also 4 other Supercharger locations within 15 miles.