It sounds more like you are interested in having TSLA subsidize your next MS purchase than helping out "the cause," and that you are taking it personally because they haven't. I hate to be the one to say it, but you sound like the guy in the bar or the store yelling out "do you know how much money I spend in here?!" At the very least, you sound like the guy trying to get a free or discounted product so that he can show it off as "free advertising." I think you overestimate the value of your kindness in just trying "to do [your] part to help."
First of all, Tesla is not going to make $18k on your trade-in, even if they sold it at $116k. In the end, they probably make little or nothing on it at all in the first place. That trade-in will start costing them money from the very moment they take it off your hands until the CPO warranty runs out. They will have to move the thing around, recondition it, store it, market it (not much in that, I know), pay some folks to deal with it, and likely lose a new car sale in the end. To then ask TSLA to intentionally take a loss on that just so that you can get into a new MS for a few thousand dollars less is a bridge too far. It's not like the factory is lying fallow.
Second, the price they offered hardly is insulting. As already pointed out 70% depreciation on a two year old $100+ car. TSLA already tried offering overmarket prices on trade-ins (i.e., the guaranteed buy back). It doesn't seem that was working to well for them.
As far as valuing the after-market products you've added, well, they need to remove them. They don't sell anything other than CPO cars, so after market products really are a liability. How are they supposed to market and value cars that way?
Third, yes, deliveries were down QoQ, but they are looking forward on that, as am I. One quarter does not kill a growth story when something like the Model 3 is coming, along with volume numbers ramping up such that TSLA could very well make more cars in 2018 than the rest of its history combined. They would love to sell you another Model S, of course, but they aren't going to pay you to buy one just to ring the bell one more time. Yes, The MS and MX might be TSLA's flagship for years to come, but the Model 3 and its kin are the real future. Toyota butters its bread via the Accord and Camry, not the Lexus LS. We're still in act one of the play.
Lastly, TSLA really doesn't want to be in the used car business at all. They really, really, really, don't. Frankly, I don't want them in that business, either. It's a pain--far more risk and labor than what they make off it (if anything). It's heavy on logistics and light on margin--a nasty business to be in. The only reason they do it at all is for the same reason you want them to bend even further backwards: to get more Teslas on the road. It's an albatross of a business. As a TSLA stockholder, myself, I shudder at the idea of TSLA turning the CPO part of the business into a cost center (or more of one).
If you really want to help TSLA out, then get in your beloved, wrapped, flawless, 2015 P90DL (with EVERY AVAILABLE OPTION, less 3rd Row Seat) that's worth so much more than what TSLA says it is and drive it over to CarMax or sell it privately when you take delivery on the Model S you'll order sooner than later.
You wrote:
First of all, Tesla is not going to make $18k on your trade-in, even if they sold it at $116k. In the end, they probably make little or nothing on it at all in the first place. That trade-in will start costing them money from the very moment they take it off your hands until the CPO warranty runs out. They will have to move the thing around, recondition it, store it, market it (not much in that, I know), pay some folks to deal with it, and likely lose a new car sale in the end. To then ask TSLA to intentionally take a loss on that just so that you can get into a new MS for a few thousand dollars less is a bridge too far. It's not like the factory is lying fallow.
They could make NOTHING on the trade-in and still come out ahead. Repeat: NOTHING. The fact is that the money will be made on the new car sale. That some trade-ins will require more work than others actually plays to Tesla's strengths as NO ONE has access to parts and labor cheaper than Tesla. Especially for high-wear trim parts, Tesla makes many of their own. It doesn't get cheaper than that. Have no idea what you mean by "lose a new car sale in the end."
The factory isn't lying fallow, but it sure as heck needs ever increasing sales for years to come. The global market for cars and trucks is a little under 100m per year. Tesla is a fraction of 1% of that. We have a massive hill to climb and sales must go UP, not down.
You wrote:
Second, the price they offered hardly is insulting. As already pointed out 70% depreciation on a two year old $100+ car. TSLA already tried offering overmarket prices on trade-ins (i.e., the guaranteed buy back). It doesn't seem that was working to well for them.
Tesla should become known for great resale values AT TESLA. We want and need customers for life if we're to save the planet. It should financially hurt every Tesla owner if they private party or trade in their car at MBZ or BMW or Lexus, etc. We WANT our customers back, and often, for another new Tesla. That feeds to planet with more Teslas, new and used, and the planet needs as many Teslas as we make.
You wrote:
Third, yes, deliveries were down QoQ, but they are looking forward on that, as am I. One quarter does not kill a growth story when something like the Model 3 is coming, along with volume numbers ramping up such that TSLA could very well make more cars in 2018 than the rest of its history combined. They would love to sell you another Model S, of course, but they aren't going to pay you to buy one just to ring the bell one more time. Yes, The MS and MX might be TSLA's flagship for years to come, but the Model 3 and its kin are the real future. Toyota butters its bread via the Accord and Camry, not the Lexus LS. We're still in act one of the play.
Not sure where this is coming from. We have a long road to go before volume M3 deliveries. Second, what the heck does this mean, " . . . but they aren't going to pay you to buy one just to ring the bell one more time." The margin on a P100D is likely around $40k, on a loaded 90D it's probably around $20k. They break even or take a $5k loss on my P90DL trade in and they make $35k or $15k, and they push another MS sale.
That's far better than a 10% drop, and January ain't looking good either. This could be foreshadowing of some bad things . . . .
Source:
January 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card
Because of the extreme end of year production push due to difficulties transition to the new autonomous-ready hardware, Tesla noted that “In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 6,450 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2017.”
Which might lead one to believe that US sales would see an uncommon spike in January, displacing the trend of low ‘first month of the quarter’ sales for Tesla…but one would be wrong, because as far as we can tell, the vast majority of those EVs just missed being delivered internationally at the end of Q4, or those EVs were produced for international customers near 2016’s end once Tesla felt it had run out of time to both produce and deliver any more cars in the US in 2016.
Looking ahead into the first half 2017, it appears Tesla needs a new driver to push Model S sales higher until the Model 3 arrives, as the current’s car’s demand is basically now flat year-over-year, and demand for the current lineup appears to be exhausted headed into Q1.
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You wrote:
Lastly, TSLA really doesn't want to be in the used car business at all. They really, really, really, don't. Frankly, I don't want them in that business, either. It's a pain--far more risk and labor than what they make off it (if anything). It's heavy on logistics and light on margin--a nasty business to be in. The only reason they do it at all is for the same reason you want them to bend even further backwards: to get more Teslas on the road. It's an albatross of a business. As a TSLA stockholder, myself, I shudder at the idea of TSLA turning the CPO part of the business into a cost center (or more of one).
And that's why the head of Tesla Remarketing needs to be retrained or canned. (And I'd suggest you stay in the legal field, not the business world, if I were you;-)
There can be huge money for Tesla overall, if they fix it right. As stated earlier, they are the product experts for all things Tesla. They make a huge amount of their own parts for heaven's sake and a CPO Tesla should look awesome and drive great; when you buy tires by the thousands, you can get a good price! They should have an outstanding CPO Sale program targeting every M3 Reservation holder, every Chevy Volt owner, and, most certainly the Nissan Leaf drivers on this planet. Heck, if you come in with worn tires on an older MS, they should be loaning you a newer CPO MS, or a new MS, for a test drive so that instead of buying tires, the customer leaves with a new or newer car because the trade-in value was so great.
That takes care of the demand side of the Tesla CPO world, and the supply side needs to start pulling more new Tesla sales by offering those high trade-in values. Again: EVEN AT BREAK EVEN or even a loss on the trade-in side, it's still a huge plus for Tesla to sell a new car and get more Teslas on the road.
That is the reason Tesla exists and too many here don't seem to understand this. Not to be over the top, but our friggin' planet's future rests on this goal.
The negative numbers needs to stop.
Yesterday.