I wanted to thank everyone for their questions, comments and suggestions following the theft of my car last week, and also to update you ... there's still no sign of it, but a neighbour who lives just 200m away has now also had his Model S stolen this morning!
It was recovered nearby a few hours later, but had been damaged. We met up today to talk it over and this looks like a new type of attack, well at least new to us. Both cars had their passenger window smashed indicating that it was not a cloned key fob or relay attack, both cars had their alarms silenced, and both had pin 2 drive enabled, but both were still driven away in the early hours. The MO was identical in all ways as far as we can tell. Whatever the method, it seems that only physical access was required.
On the recovered car, the underside of the dash had been ripped out to gain access to the electronics and wiring. The thieves were also seen carrying a rucksack so I favour the view that they brought equipment that could be connected into the wiring loom to trick the car into powering up and being driven, possibly a cloned vehicle identity which avoided the pin 2 drive altogether? I don't know this for certain but the evidence of two incidents suggests this.
A word of warning, particularly for Model S owners in the Yorkshire/Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire areas - I'm not sure that a reliance on the electronic security measures is now enough to prevent theft so it might be wise to add a physical layer of security temporarily (steering lock, bollards, or just by blocking the car in on your drive), until this vulnerability is better understood. Anything which makes it harder to take.
Does anyone have a contact number for somebody at Tesla who might be willing to talk this through? It seems like key information they would want to know but whenever I call them I get generic answers and GDPR quoted at me and its so hard to reach anyone in authority. If so, perhaps one of the moderators could exchange our contact info? Be careful out there - there's definitely a heightened risk at the moment.