It's not clear, without ordering FSD he'd even get HW3. If it's something he will ultimately want, he should order it now as the price will, more than likely, go up, especially once the software gets updated to take advantage of the HW3 board. It mainly benefits FSD and currently with the existing software HW3 is worse.
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HW3
- Thread starter Chancellor32
- Start date
srs5694
Active Member
FWIW, I signed up for TeslaFi's trial period today, for my Model 3 LR RWD, which I received on Saturday (March 30), and which I believe was built that month, as part of the production for the end-of-quarter delivery push. TeslaFi shows "APH3" as one of the "option_code" items for my car, which I gather means I've got HW2.5. Thus, my guess is that if Tesla has begun installing HW3 computers in new Model 3s, that's a very recent development, and few or no cars so equipped have yet reached consumers' hands. Based on all the reporting, of course, that seems likely to change soon.
So far, we haven't had any problems with HW3. It might not currently be better but I wouldn't say it is worse.
When we first got AP2, it was definitely worse than AP1 since the software wasn't there yet. So far, HW3 is handling autopilot functionality just as well as HW2.5.
@OCR1, your friend should definitely not order now because he or she would most likely get a Model 3 with HW2.5. That would be an issue because your friend is not buying FSD. My guess is, they only have a small number of Model 3s in the inventory. You don't want to buy one of these cars if you are not going to buy FSD because you would be stuck with HW2.5. The HW3.0 computer is 10-20 times faster. Even if we assume all inventory was sold out, recent buyers can still return their car within 7 days and Tesla will sell the returned cars again. They are calculating all that.
The 22 April 2019 date for the Autopilot event is not a random selection. They are looking at ships that didn't arrive in time in China. They look at unsold cars they have in inventory. They also look at the number of returns etc. After the event, all new buyers are going to want to buy the new computer and not the old one, especially if they are not planning to buy FSD. Tesla knows this. Your friend should wait until 22 April.
The 22 April 2019 date for the Autopilot event is not a random selection. They are looking at ships that didn't arrive in time in China. They look at unsold cars they have in inventory. They also look at the number of returns etc. After the event, all new buyers are going to want to buy the new computer and not the old one, especially if they are not planning to buy FSD. Tesla knows this. Your friend should wait until 22 April.
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My comment was predicated on an Elon tweet. But good to know!
SeanM
Member
Hi, I purchased the FSD ($2k), any idea when will they be starting to install the computer chip on Model-3s??
No, but dont hold your breath. Probably very very late this year, or early next year (2020). In fact, its my opinion you WANT to wait for your retrofit. Why be "first batch" when you dont have to, when tesla has proven repeatedly that they iterate constantly? At the very least, waiting will ensure there is a lot more data around what the new HW effects, and how it effects it, and likely several new software updates to support it.
FlyinDelorean
Member
Most likely because the jump from AP1 to AP2 involved almost a total rewrite of their AP code. AP1 utilized MobilEye EyeQ3 which Tesla claimed was slowing down FSD progress. When AP2 first came out, it didn't even have high beam support or auto wiper support. Things quickly progressed from there. Although I do think they should switch from radar to lidar-based sensors, they are basically operating with the concept that every camera on the car is like a human eye. If two human eyes can catch something, an artificially intelligent neural network should be able to do the same or better. There is some skepticism here, but the benefit of the new HW3 chip is that they will continue to develop from the existing platform. HW2 based features will clearly work on HW3, but how quickly HW3 features become more pronounced and HW2* based cars cannot keep up -- well they could end up forking the code and leaving in deprecations for HW2.. Over time, new code will be introduced that takes advantage of the enhanced computing power that HW2's GPU will simply not be capable of calculating in a timely fashion. It will reach a point where HW3 does surpass HW2/HW2.5 based on the pure computing power of the unit. To fully understand, two GPUs with redundancy on HW 2.5... one GPU on HW2.0. Faster GPU on HW3, with room for three way computational redundancy (speculated). This is because any true fully autonomous system would be considered a critical system that cannot be allowed to fail. Satellites, etc are often built with triple redundant systems in the event of failure. When you think about it, it is quite a brilliant idea. What may not have been so brilliant, as was obviously to keep the company afloat, was selling a bunch of 3's before the computer was available. But that is why they sold FSD as a pre-order option to begin with: to continue to fund that project/objective.
At the Autopilot event on 22 April, I think Elon will announce that the main features of FSD will be released this year. In Germany, some buyers received a document from Tesla that said they will release the main FSD features by the end of 2019 or Tesla will refund €5,200. See the tweet here. Therefore I think retrofits will happen this year. My best guess is, it will start in August 2019.
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Exactly what we were thinking. We had an AP1 car and currently have AP2, AP2.5 and AP3 cars so we've seen how things have progressed since 2016.
We'll probably hold onto the AP2 car long enough to see it get upgraded to AP3. It's got lifetime Supercharging and has been the main road trip car for a couple of years so we're not in a hurry to trade it in.
1 in 15 ?
Where you got that number. I don't know statistics, but I think I know only one person here without EAP. Almost all I know took it so I would have guessed >50% with EAP, but it's very limited sample.
news over the last day or two indicates you don't want it for a while until they get the software compatible with it because from what Elon has said, it actually perform worse than hw2.5.
That would be great! Where I got the number from is back when I reserved and configured I found on the model 3 subject the first thread was ordering and delivery information and it had a pointer to a Google sheet where it list people who reserved and configured and took delivery etc,it was a sample to be sure but just counting the number of orders without EAP until you got EAP was abt 1 in 15. Since then they swapped prices from 5 and 3 to 3 and 5.1 in 15 ?
Where you got that number. I don't know statistics, but I think I know only one person here without EAP. Almost all I know took it so I would have guessed >50% with EAP, but it's very limited sample.
As I mentioned previously in post #183 in this thread:
Disregarding Elon's Tweet, can you cite examples of the "news over the last day or two" that prove HW3 is worse than HW2.5?
mtndrew1
Active Member
If HW3 comes out and is joined by software that actually drives people around in urban areas and highways with minimal intervention as advertised I would expect Tesla to become VERY confident in their pricing, not the opposite.
So far they’ve been selling a dream for $8,000. If it’s actually reality they’re certainly unlikely to offer any discounts unless they’re in dire straits.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I would expect the price would go up to at least $20k and people would gladly pay it. It won't be worth it to nickel and dime people for the hardware.
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M3BlueGeorgia
Active Member
I'm presuming the retrofits will start in Q3 for the people who paid $3K in 2018 and before, and you will follow behind, maybe Q4 or Q1.
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