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Hydrogen vs. Battery
- Thread starter siry
- Start date
voyager
Active Member
Entertaining film in which TopGear's old fart James May talks about his Tesla and the H2 Toyota:
voyager
Active Member
https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a30289241/fuel-cells-and-the-mirai-toyota-explains-its-vision-for-a-hydrogen-future/
Jackie Birdsall: "That said, we do have a portfolio approach. We are moving toward 25 percent of our sales being hybrids by 2025, and all of our vehicles will have an electrified option by 2025. And that’s going to be a combination of battery electrics, plug-in hybrids and fuel cells."
Jackie Birdsall: "That said, we do have a portfolio approach. We are moving toward 25 percent of our sales being hybrids by 2025, and all of our vehicles will have an electrified option by 2025. And that’s going to be a combination of battery electrics, plug-in hybrids and fuel cells."
China is smart enough to realize that if you have right level of mandates, you don't need subsidies, because the manufacturers will be forced to rebate or buy credits from competitors.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Kinda funny how good news for Hydrogen can make Hydrogen powered cars look even more absurd.
Keele University is testing a 20% blend of H2 in their natural gas system. If this works that means that Green H2 could displace ~20% of Natural Gas used for heating, cooking and power generation without needing to upgrade any pipes or other infrastructure. This would mean the H2 'deficit' we need to fill before we would have surplus H2 to squander in cars would increase from ~10B kg/yr to >150B kg/yr depending on how successful electrification efforts are in terms of heating and cooking.
Keele University is testing a 20% blend of H2 in their natural gas system. If this works that means that Green H2 could displace ~20% of Natural Gas used for heating, cooking and power generation without needing to upgrade any pipes or other infrastructure. This would mean the H2 'deficit' we need to fill before we would have surplus H2 to squander in cars would increase from ~10B kg/yr to >150B kg/yr depending on how successful electrification efforts are in terms of heating and cooking.
FutureShock
Best Coast Denizen
Hydrogen in passenger cars (‘light vehicles’) is just a fool’s errand (aka Elon was right) and is doomed to slide from its current irrelevancy down to a slow death. 
But things like busses, delivery vans, and 18-wheelers may well be a different story, and if the H2 fanboi contingent started focusing on that, they then might have a lot more credibility. Right now it’s just LOL.
But, for passenger cars... yeah, stick a fork in it, H2’s basically done. Doesn’t matter what brave noises Toyota makes in defense of its billions in stranded assets in fuel cell car R&D, even they will be selling plenty of EVs before long (and no doubt grumbling about it all the way ).
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But things like busses, delivery vans, and 18-wheelers may well be a different story, and if the H2 fanboi contingent started focusing on that, they then might have a lot more credibility. Right now it’s just LOL.
But, for passenger cars... yeah, stick a fork in it, H2’s basically done. Doesn’t matter what brave noises Toyota makes in defense of its billions in stranded assets in fuel cell car R&D, even they will be selling plenty of EVs before long (and no doubt grumbling about it all the way
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Hydrogen in passenger cars (‘light vehicles’) is just a fool’s errand (aka Elon was right) and is doomed to slide from its current irrelevancy down to a slow death.
But things like busses, delivery vans, and 18-wheelers may well be a different story, and if the H2 fanboi contingent started focusing on that, they then might have a lot more credibility. Right now it’s just LOL.
But for passenger cars... yeah, stick a fork in it, H2’s basically done. Doesn’t matter what brave noises Toyota makes in defense of its billions in stranded assets in fuel cell car R&D, even they will be selling plenty of EVs before long (and no doubt grumbling about it all the way
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Maybe; I could see some sense in it if there was truly a glut of H2. IMO we can't rule out H2 as a viable fuel for light vehicles if we end up in an energy environment where we're legitimately generating more H2 than we know what to do with. But I agree that outside that scenario which is AT LEAST ~30 years away H2 in light vehicles makes no sense.
But in that scenario it may make just as much sense to use that H2 to manufacture gasoline and diesel since they're easier to transport and store than H2 so.....¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .... but that's several decades away at least
Curious George
Member
H2 in light vehicles makes lot more sense than expensive, slow charging and degrading battery cars.
Let's look at the light vehicle passenger market in the US. Most are CUVs, SUVs and pick up trucks.. H2 makes lot more sense for them than pure EVs which will need tons of battery, and will still be a pain for towing anything.
With H2 passenger vehicles, there is no need to spend hours charging the battery on long trips. Just fill up and go.
As your own citation shows, hydrogen prices are falling so much that it is replacing CNG for heating. So, the biggest argument against H2 about its price is already going away.
Wrong. H2 can be generated on-site with electrolysis that completely bypasses any transportation. Besides, as I mentioned earlier, there are very safe ways o transport H2 using liquid hydrocarbons.But in that scenario it may make just as much sense to use that H2 to manufacture gasoline and diesel since they're easier to transport and store than H2 so.....¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .... but that's several decades away at least
Oh, did someone say Honda is now betting on BEVs?
Honda Bets On Hybrids: Has Doubts About Fully Electric Cars
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
The Math disagrees. Gonna be pretty impossible for a FCEV to beat a $40k Model 3 with a battery that should last ~1M miles and uses ~half as much energy per mile vs a FCEV
If H2 is so 'easy' to generate on site then why do CA stations keep running out?
I am 'Curious' though CG.... if H2 makes as much progress in the next 10 years as it did in the previous 10 are you going to keep 'plugging' away (no pun intended) or accept the reality that we're A LONG way from H2 making any sense in cars because math and physics. What evidence would convince you?
When we're no longer producing H2 from Methane AND most of our current uses of Methane have been replaced by H2 AND aviation is using H2 derived fuels I'll accept that using H2 in cars might make a little sense.... I still wouldn't be the least bit interested until they have home electrolyzers. 'Filling up' at home with the energy from my roof is pretty great
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Good thing we have affordable, fast charging, and long lasting EV's, so H2 will never make any sense. Thought you had given up peddling your nonsense around here.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Maybe Toyota gave him a raise.
FutureShock
Best Coast Denizen
Even Toyota will be folding their hydrogen hand and going BEV in the next few years or so. They’ll likely wind up switching emphasis by 2025.
So then CG will suddenly become a pro-BEV troll, lol.
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China, and other big cities, are interested in EV to reduce local air pollution. Even IF coal + EV generated roughly the same amount of CO2, at least it is away from population center... meaning quality of life and health. But we all know that power is not ONLY generated from coal, so it's a no brainer that EV would be cleaner. BTW, in 2019, UK generated more energy from renewables than fossil fuel!
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In my case, I bought a Bolt EV. EPA range 238 miles. Older Li-ion batteries in phones last 500 0-100% cycles and newer battery lasts 1000 0-100% cycles. When you cycle a smaller amount and stay between 20-80% SOC, you double the cycle life (2x). So 1000-2000 full cycle equiv. When you do 40-60%, you double the useful cycle life again (4x).
My weekly miles are about 200 miles, daily depth of discharge under 20% and I recharge daily - easy as plugging it in and go do something else. One full cycle a week is about 52 cycles a year. It will take 10 years to go 500 cycles and 20 years to use 1000 cycles. Now, 4x that number for my usage pattern, and old style Li-ion battery will last 40 years while newer stile Li-ion battery will last 80 years. The battery will outlast the car and either get recycled or reused as grid battery!
FutureShock
Best Coast Denizen
Go where? In circles around the SF Bay Area?
There’s no H2 fueling infrastructure, lol.
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Curious George
Member
California newly granted another $115 M for hydrogen refueling stations. Now team H2Q will get really desperate and crazy.
GFO-19-602 - Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure
GFO-19-602 - Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
California newly granted another $115 M for hydrogen refueling stations. Now team H2Q will get really desperate and crazy.
GFO-19-602 - Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure
So they're spending ~$18k per FCEV on refueling infrastructure? I agree... that is really 'desperate and crazy'....
Seems like investing in electrolysis infrastructure or at least R&D would be the more rational approach. But that that would actually have some utility. I suspect usefulness isn't the goal here....
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FutureShock
Best Coast Denizen
What’s really funny is that CG is crowing over a govt handout that amounts to maybe three dozen more H2 fuel stations over the next few years, and only in California.
Meanwhile, Tesla, all by itself, adds a couple THOUSAND EV charging stalls EVERY YEAR, and all ACROSS THE U.S., not just in one state.
And then there all the OTHER ventures and companies already in and/or ramping up in the EV charging space, such as Electrify America, EVgo, ChargePoint, Blink, SemaConnect, etc. etc.
So really, all CG did was remind us once again of the HUGE and INCREASING disparity between EV charging infrastructure and H2 fueling infrastructure.
As in, hydrogen is many years behind, and isn’t catching up anytime soon... or ever.
And why should it? FCEVs on the road are rarer than four-leaf clovers.
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And fueling stations are found at the end of a rainbow.
mtndrew1
Active Member
This is today’s hydrogen station uptime.
Mind you this is not at all unusual and actually pretty good compared to most of 2019. One station just permanently closed down.
H2 runs about $14/kg near me so it costs about $70 to fill up a Mirai to get about 325 miles of range.
The same range in my Model 3 costs $11.25 and my car cost me $15,000 less.
Toyota sold 66 Mirais last month and three year old used examples are going for just over $10,000. Tesla sold 15,000 Model 3s in the US in the same month and used examples are going for near MSRP.
There is no market for these things as passenger vehicles as far as I can see. Unreliable and expensive cars and infrastructure with very expensive fuel largely derived from fossil feedstock. Total boondoggle.
Mind you this is not at all unusual and actually pretty good compared to most of 2019. One station just permanently closed down.
H2 runs about $14/kg near me so it costs about $70 to fill up a Mirai to get about 325 miles of range.
The same range in my Model 3 costs $11.25 and my car cost me $15,000 less.
Toyota sold 66 Mirais last month and three year old used examples are going for just over $10,000. Tesla sold 15,000 Model 3s in the US in the same month and used examples are going for near MSRP.
There is no market for these things as passenger vehicles as far as I can see. Unreliable and expensive cars and infrastructure with very expensive fuel largely derived from fossil feedstock. Total boondoggle.
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