Curious George
Member
Following link debunks the repetitive stuff you are posting here. I think @arnis was looking for this.
https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/conte...c2AUNErtNR--DQu4nxq3ZknUhg_yzAZ6QYKoUkorurJhY
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Hydrogen vs. Battery
- Thread starter siry
- Start date
https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/conte...c2AUNErtNR--DQu4nxq3ZknUhg_yzAZ6QYKoUkorurJhY
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
LOL; I would argue that it re-enforces it. And why did they use different standards for FCV and BEV? Why wind or NG for H2 and 'Grid Mix' or PV for BEVs? Wind is ~80% less energy intensive vs PV.... do they think there's some reason wind can't charge an EV? And this it only ~93k miles. The benefit of BEVs rapidly increases from there. The fact FCVs use ~2x as much energy per mile is indisputable.
EVs generally don't use 'grid mix'. It's easy to charge them off-peak when generation sources are cleaner. As curtailment becomes more of an issue it will soon make sense to aggregate your EV into a demand response network which can allow your utility to charge your car at a discounted rate instead of wasting solar or wind. So even if the grid is ~50% fools fuel your car could be charge from 100% solar or wind that would have been wasted if you didn't have an EV. Doesn't get any cleaner than that.
BTW: This is the mid-west right nowAnd this is an average night.
View attachment 452497
Yeah... apples to apples after ~100k miles BEV would win in a landslide. 100% Wind BEV vs 100% Wind FCV.
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Fraunhofer provides Hydrogen R&D. That piece isn't sourced, it's a slide presentation. The normal nonsense applies, like the recent one that @Curious George has linked to in another thread that shows 8 years ROC for a Tesla battery - calculate full lifecycle for BEVs, but imagine that everything for the competition arrives without processing, transportation, etc. Completely ignore the possibility of battery recycling or down cycling. You know how it goes.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Ah... now I see why they used wind for the FCV and PV for the BEV... LOL
I'm looking at red and orange blocks of cleanest sourced electricity footprints for FCEV and EV.
Also I read:
Hydrogen from electrolysis Electricity demand: 54 kWh/kg H2
This is about 3x more energy than EV for the same distance.
Those smallest red and orange blocks absolutely do not add up correctly. Orange should be 3x the size of red one.
Also that same research hinted that one semi-trailer refill of hydrogen station is good for 200 car refills. That is hilarious.
With 10 pumps (realistic number if H2 vehicles are actually common) one station may run out in 2 hours.
So many truckloads of hydrogen daily. From 100-400 km away.
Also I read:
Hydrogen from electrolysis Electricity demand: 54 kWh/kg H2
This is about 3x more energy than EV for the same distance.
Those smallest red and orange blocks absolutely do not add up correctly. Orange should be 3x the size of red one.
Also that same research hinted that one semi-trailer refill of hydrogen station is good for 200 car refills. That is hilarious.
With 10 pumps (realistic number if H2 vehicles are actually common) one station may run out in 2 hours.
So many truckloads of hydrogen daily. From 100-400 km away.
That Fraunhofer study has been thoroughly debunked all over the place already. If I recall correctly an author of the study is a recent graduate who wasn't even working in this field.
E.g. see Fraunhofer ISE was wrong: hydrogen cars are not cleaner than battery-driven electric vehicles and diesel cars are not even close
E.g. see Fraunhofer ISE was wrong: hydrogen cars are not cleaner than battery-driven electric vehicles and diesel cars are not even close
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I can confirm that vehicles often last for more than 300 000km, more than 15 years.
My secondary vehicle for towing and partying is 18yo and 420 000km, still going strong.
I live in an area where cheapest vehicles are at that age and mileage.
They are imported here, exactly like stated in debunk article.
I just checked, there are two very high mileage 2013-2014 Leaf's for sale (ex-taxi) today,
one is 250 000km another is 300 000km and batteries are ~80%. For a LEAF.
My own Leaf is 155 000km and battery is 88% so it all adds up correctly.
You see Curious George, how easy it is to fool a person who doesn't actually understand whatever is being
said on the internet. It can be a lie and today, it is. I and many others noticed that really fast.
I told you that the red and orange blocks are off. And now others have proven that.
My secondary vehicle for towing and partying is 18yo and 420 000km, still going strong.
I live in an area where cheapest vehicles are at that age and mileage.
They are imported here, exactly like stated in debunk article.
I just checked, there are two very high mileage 2013-2014 Leaf's for sale (ex-taxi) today,
one is 250 000km another is 300 000km and batteries are ~80%. For a LEAF.
My own Leaf is 155 000km and battery is 88% so it all adds up correctly.
You see Curious George, how easy it is to fool a person who doesn't actually understand whatever is being
said on the internet. It can be a lie and today, it is. I and many others noticed that really fast.
I told you that the red and orange blocks are off. And now others have proven that.
The problem isn't present yet. It is going to be an issue 5-10 years from now when everyone wants an EV (or governments mandate them).
Any FCEV out there right now is just for test purposes. And on the other side H2 investors are cautious since any big improvement in battery technology could blow away their plans.
Curious George
Member
So you say the study should consider 300k miles because you see a few cars that are very old?
I think I will last 100 years too because I heard about some Japanese person who was more than 100 years old.
I can confirm some 100 kWh Model S/X being totaled in the first year. Should any study use 1 year as car life?
Many of the older passenger (non taxi) vehicles are driven driven much less per year than the newer cars.
But we need to talk averages.Here is the only one I found (with a quik search) on average miles before car is done. It is a little old, but it confirms the 150K miles average. If you include the cars that get destroyed much earlier (how many Model S/X went up inflames?), 150k seems a very reasonable average.
What's the life expectancy of my car?
"Consumer Reports (www.consumerreports.org/) says the average life expectancy of a new vehicle these days is around 8 years or 150,000 miles. Of course, some well-built vehicles can go 15 years and 300,000, if properly maintained. "
There could be other mistakes or wrong/biased assumptions, but this isn't one.
Will read the debunking blog later. When it starts off by saying I should only read this sentence, I have to take tha debunking with a grain of salt.
"The electric vehicle is a threat to the oil and car industry. Maybe that’s why H2 Mobility were happy to pay for a study with a range of assumptions which are unfavourable towards the electric vehicle."
Why is choosing wind wrong? Is it because it isn't supporting your agenda? You guys keep doing these smear campaign as soon as data is presented that contradicts your presumptions or agenda.
If wind is lower ghg/kWh and world wants lower ghg, then why shouldn't wind be the bigger player? Even today, in US, wind energy is more than solar, even with all the hoopla with solar. If we talk electricity, wind is 6x solar.
Renewable energy in the United States - Wikipedia
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It's not. But choosing A for hydrogen vehicles and B for electric vehicles is definitely misleading as a minimum.
Either both use wind, both use solar. Though the most accurate is to choose a mix of green sources as they are expected to be in 2030.
But both, hydrogen and battery electric vehicles should have EXACTLY THE SAME MIX for charging and for hydrogen generation/compression etc.
No. Vehicles (at least European manufacturers) last DEFINITELY longer than warranty period.
BMW offers 200 000km for warranty. Actually they last 300 000 as a minimum.
But this applies to ICE vehicles. Battery electric vehicles will last longer on average.
The reason why ICE Vehicles are USUALLY scrapped are a) engine failure b) transmission failure c) corrosion.
I will add some statistics.
Used vehicle market.
Mileage 10-100Mm - 3600 vehicles
Mileage 100Mm-200Mm - 6100 vehicles
Mileage 200Mm-300Mm - 5300 vehicles
Mileage 300Mm-400Mm - 1300 vehicles
And be assured 20-40% of them have been tampered of around 50Mm-80Mm (reduced when in transit from one country to another). This is common practice. 99% of those are ICE vehicles. It's true that cheap vehicles that cost 3x less than average (10k€-15k€) do actually last up to 300Mm-350Mm. Those usually have tiny ICE that fail after that mileage.
If you are still not convinced I can do the same data harvesting from mobile.de - biggest German car market website.
* Mm - (megameters, aka 1000 km, aka ~600miles)
Used vehicle market.
Mileage 10-100Mm - 3600 vehicles
Mileage 100Mm-200Mm - 6100 vehicles
Mileage 200Mm-300Mm - 5300 vehicles
Mileage 300Mm-400Mm - 1300 vehicles
And be assured 20-40% of them have been tampered of around 50Mm-80Mm (reduced when in transit from one country to another). This is common practice. 99% of those are ICE vehicles. It's true that cheap vehicles that cost 3x less than average (10k€-15k€) do actually last up to 300Mm-350Mm. Those usually have tiny ICE that fail after that mileage.
If you are still not convinced I can do the same data harvesting from mobile.de - biggest German car market website.
* Mm - (megameters, aka 1000 km, aka ~600miles)
Dr. J
Active Member
The Fraunhofer study used the assumption of 150k kilometers (~93,000 miles). A real monkey from Mars wouldn't have been tripped up by the metric system.
Like BMW. Sitting there waiting.
"“We will be able to supply the technology when the demand is there”"
BMW is branching out at the IAA - electrive.com
mtndrew1
Active Member
If anyone finds fuel cell cars to be a desirable and cost effective way to get around, the barrier to entry is pretty reasonable. Put some money where your mouth is!
I'm surprised there are any for sale. I've heard everyone loves them. That won't last long!
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
I don't know... ask the guys that chose to use PV over wind. I agree it was probably because wind would not support their agenda (Although they oddly preferred it as the energy source for H2). I also agree that wind is 6x solar so it would make more sense to assume wind.
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
I'm having trouble following this: can you elaborate?
I think we've already reached "everyone wants an EV" — not literally "everyone", but enough to drive strong growth. We've seen strong demand for good BEV products whenever TCO is comparable to ICE. There are various limits to supply, and BEV manufacturers are working on them.
What's going to happen in 5-10 years that will make this growth process untenable? If and when it happens, how will HFCEV manufacturing and infrastructure be able to ramp up quickly enough, when HFCEV looks so uncompetitive today?
Can you put some numbers behind that? Batteries can expect about 25% improvement in energy density over five years and 60% in ten, according to comments by JB Straubel. Is that a "big improvement"? What % improvement in battery energy density would make HFCEV irrelevant? Why?
California has high percentage of EVs, but it doesn't extrapolate to the World, not even to neighbor states.
Total lithium ion battery production is around 300GWh/year right now. Total new cars sales is around 80M/year.
Only a portion of this battery production capacity goes into EVs. Some gets deployed as storage for renewables, some as batteries for tools and household items.
But let's calculate with all capacity for BEVs:
If every car had a 70kWh battery, 300GWh would equal to 4.3M BEV annually. That's ~5% of total new cars sales.
Projections differ when the 1 TWh capacity will be reached. 2024 - 2028. That equals to 18% of total new cars sales. And as mentioned, not all Li ion batteries are meant for BEVs. Renewable energy storage needs are an order of magnitude higher.
Battery Megafactory Forecast: 400% Increase in Capacity to 1 TWh by 2028
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Global lithium demand last year was <100k metric tons. 'Proven Reserves' globally is ~14M tons.
As a fun side note... 'Proven reserves' in 2010 was 9.9M tons. So we're finding more Lithium significantly faster than we're extracting it... I'm pretty sure we're fine.
If I remember correctly Lithium is only 2% of the battery.
There is a lot of things need to be straightened before all the factories come online. Not only customers, companies and investors have to align but also countries/politicians. Right now for example Indonesia is playing with the Nickel: Indonesia to ban nickel exports from January 2020
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