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hypothetical Question-Life Span of a 3?
- Thread starter Midwest Guy
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Msjulie
Active Member
Assuming everything else holds up, I think Tesla stated their new drive units could do 1 million miles.
Then again someone will likely total you before that...
IdaX
Member
The steel in the body will eventually rust, unlike the all aluminum S & X. How long, and under what conditions, can only be answered empirically 
In the states where I see cars and trucks driving around from the 80s and older with original paint I’d say yes. What if the battery only lasts through the end of the warranty? It is still cost effective in most cases to replace worn items and continue to drive a car over buying a new one. Not having a car payment is awesome. Put away a little each month for repairs and my budget stays in tact.
I'll go out on a limb and predict 1,000,000 miles is possible without a battery change or new motors.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Fundamentally, the vehicle has the bloodline to last 1,000,000 miles. The real question is what amount of quality and reliability has Tesla bottled up with the model 3? Unfortunately, my guess is that the first couple of years that they built the model 3 will be continuous improvement. The 1M mile M3 would best be attempted with the 3rd or 4th year IMO. Ironically, I am hoping to keep my M3 for 10 years, but if it spends a lot of time fixing things under warranty, I may not be willing to gamble my usual 10 years on the model 3....
jjh1234
Member
Just imagine the technological advancement that will probably happen in the next 5-10 years. I doubt anybody will want any of today's EV cars by then.
IdaX
Member
I dunno -- 2013 Model S isn't a bad car, even today. In 5 years model 3 might very well be equivalent, only cheaper...
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Oh, I would disagree with that one. I bet the last of the ICE warriors will be looking for a good deal on the used EV market in about 10 years! Quietly joining the rest of the world and hoping nobody notices their used Model 3 next to their 20 year old F-250!
Dan
Conversations like this are a joke, most Tesla owners want to pretend ICE are shot at 100k and that while a few Teslas have hit 200k they will tell you ever last one will last at least half a million miles, maybe 6 times that and then undergo metamorphosis into a baby unicorn.
Too few Teslas have gone 200k to draw any conclusions and most M3 have what 2000miles on them.
Certainly we all home the M3 goes 1,000,000miles but to draw any conclusions or try and make statements based on a dozen MS or whatever it is that have hit 200K is silly.
You can find another current thread on this forum where some owners say they wouldn't own a Tesla out of warranty..........
Time is the ONLY thing that will answer this question.
Too few Teslas have gone 200k to draw any conclusions and most M3 have what 2000miles on them.
Certainly we all home the M3 goes 1,000,000miles but to draw any conclusions or try and make statements based on a dozen MS or whatever it is that have hit 200K is silly.
You can find another current thread on this forum where some owners say they wouldn't own a Tesla out of warranty..........
Time is the ONLY thing that will answer this question.
There are few non-commercial vehicles that approach a million miles, but large commercial vehicles routinely do that.
Factually nobody can argue with @SSedan because BEV's aren't been around long enough to guess longevity.
Still, we do know that Tesla Model S batteries have been observed passing 100,000 miles routinely. We know there have been a few taht have gone beyond that with original batteries.
Physically there is little reason to imagine that and S or X would not last for decades.
Changing batteries along the way might happen, just as major engine/transmission overhauls happen in ICE when they have high usage and/or long usage.
It is clearly reasonable to expect some major parts replacement on the way to 1,000,000 miles probably even a battery. Luckily for owning a Tesla, changing a battery takes two Hours (if they're slow) and the cost is steadily diminishing. Not only that but one might well be able to replace with a higher capacity battery. Thus, I'll argue that a 10-year-old Tesla will probably be better than a 10-year-old anything else.
One can look at Roadster for an idea, but they were limited production and were an ICE adaptation. Even with those limitations ten-year-old Roadsters still drive around quite well. Is taht not a bit amazing? There are Rav-4 and others from the same era still motoring quite happily.
In short, don't worry at all about longevity...
People talk about a 10yo car like it is "old" and to the average Tesla owner it is, but a quick googling revealed the average age of a car in the USA was 11.5years in 2015 and there is a solid trend of vehicles lasting longer and longer. Any vehicle that routinely died by 10yo is a POS.
In the past my vehicle of choice was mid-90s GM b-bodies this was the Caprice and Roadmaster both sedans and wagons and had a lot of friends that are even still playing with them. That was a 1970s chassis, with an 1980s transmission with some 90s electronics added and a modest redesign of the smallblock Chevy from 1958. Body rot or deer killed those cars for me not major mechanical issues. One wagon went off for demolition derby at 299k. Had a power steering leak $40 part but was getting too rusty to bother with because Wisconsin uses a LOT of salt. I still have a highly modified Caprice sedan in the garage.
Those who talk about how awful ICE are and how they will be gone in a decade are not being rational. Heck people still love a 1968 cars and those are crap by every standard, and even the V8s which nostalgia tells folks were amazing are not powerful by today's standards.
In the past my vehicle of choice was mid-90s GM b-bodies this was the Caprice and Roadmaster both sedans and wagons and had a lot of friends that are even still playing with them. That was a 1970s chassis, with an 1980s transmission with some 90s electronics added and a modest redesign of the smallblock Chevy from 1958. Body rot or deer killed those cars for me not major mechanical issues. One wagon went off for demolition derby at 299k. Had a power steering leak $40 part but was getting too rusty to bother with because Wisconsin uses a LOT of salt. I still have a highly modified Caprice sedan in the garage.
Those who talk about how awful ICE are and how they will be gone in a decade are not being rational. Heck people still love a 1968 cars and those are crap by every standard, and even the V8s which nostalgia tells folks were amazing are not powerful by today's standards.
israndy
Supercharger Hunter
It's more than just the engine that makes you throw away a car. It can be when it starts to nickel and dime you, or more likely when something new comes out (Like a Model 3) that you JUST have to have. I have had pretty uniform luck with my cars, I get them to 150K and then I get a replacement, often it's the engine that fails, but I have had a car totaled, convertible top split again after too few years, and I may be about to sell my beautiful Insight because I got the M3.
History says I will not keep the M3 to 1M, but having retired now, I am going to try.
-Randy
History says I will not keep the M3 to 1M, but having retired now, I am going to try.
-Randy
I mentioned engines because so of Tesla owners delude themselves into believing engines are failure prone and they can be if you buy high output small engines but adequately sized engines last about forever, I have personal experience with several Chevy V8s over 200K and one over 300k.
They want to focus on how reliable the electric drive unit is.
You are right though that stuff often is not the thing that takes cars off the road, repeated small repairs make it not worthwhile. Electric door handles, auto folding mirrors, all digital user interfaces, resistance heating, battery dependent on AC system etc. all leaves a lot of room for other failures that could make these expensive to own when older.
Bet many of us had cars when young and poor where we ignored failed AC because it wasn't critical, or a heater fan knob that didn't work on all positions, or auto leveling rear suspension that failed but that was just supplemental bladder on the shocks, it wasn't actual air suspension.
There is a ton of stuff that can and will fail on Teslas and the blind faithful wont acknowledge that. At what age/mileage that stuff will begin to fail in quantity I hope we have a long wait to find out but nobody knows.
I have enough faith I bought a P85 out of warranty, so koolaid drinkers please don't take what I have said as bashing, it is just level headed thinking not baseless optimism.
They want to focus on how reliable the electric drive unit is.
You are right though that stuff often is not the thing that takes cars off the road, repeated small repairs make it not worthwhile. Electric door handles, auto folding mirrors, all digital user interfaces, resistance heating, battery dependent on AC system etc. all leaves a lot of room for other failures that could make these expensive to own when older.
Bet many of us had cars when young and poor where we ignored failed AC because it wasn't critical, or a heater fan knob that didn't work on all positions, or auto leveling rear suspension that failed but that was just supplemental bladder on the shocks, it wasn't actual air suspension.
There is a ton of stuff that can and will fail on Teslas and the blind faithful wont acknowledge that. At what age/mileage that stuff will begin to fail in quantity I hope we have a long wait to find out but nobody knows.
I have enough faith I bought a P85 out of warranty, so koolaid drinkers please don't take what I have said as bashing, it is just level headed thinking not baseless optimism.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Mileage can be a big factor too, not just age. Each component and subassembly in your vehicle has a rated life. Few of those are "infinite". Tell me this, how long do you think automatic transmissions last, even with proper preventive maintenance? What about newer CVTs that are common place now? Life expectancy of a turbocharger? They have also become popular due to CAFE requirements. How many components in your engine need maintenance to keep it from falling? Does it have a quieter timing belt? I know that all these things and more start to either worry me or cost me serious money at about the 150K mark. BEVs absolutely have the potential to not be like that. They have far simpler designs with many fewer points of failure. But they are still complex systems. Take a look at the videos that are out showing what's under the frunk. There is still a lot of stuff required for even a BEV. Tesla seems to have done a great job making the most expensive subassembly last a really long time- the batteries. I think Teslas batteries are amazing and while I am happy it appears I may not have to worry about that... the jury is still out on all that other stuff under the frunk! Time will tell, but I will remain cautiously optimistic for the time being.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
ha, I say that as someone driving a 2012 Leaf while waiting to get a Tesla.
I'd gladly buy a second 2012 Leaf to replace my 2005 Prius right now if the price was right.
Give me 5 years down the road and if I don't already have 2 Tesla's I'd be wanting a second one.
I don't think you grok the size of the car market and how many years it would take to replace every gas and diesel car on the planet with EVs. Tesla could make 1 million cars a year and it'd still take more than 10 years and so long as the market isn't 100% EVs there will be someone that wants that 10 year old EV to retire a gas guzzler.
T34ME
Active Member
The model 3 will last me the rest of my driving lifetime. When FSD becomes available, it will double that time for me.
This is the beauty of the model 3, it can be updated with OTA new technology advances. Yes, the battery pack will degrade over time, but there will be an opportunity to upgrade your car with one of those new 600 mile range packs when they become available for a price much less than a new car. Elon's plan is to build a car WITHOUT planned obsolescence. He wants to move consumers away from a disposable commodities lifestyle. He is designing his cars to last until there is a completely different form of personal transportation, which is going to happen sooner than we think. I feel like Yoda here (I even look like him) "Open your mind. Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future."
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