I made a TCO calculator for Model 3 vs Other Cars

[RedAntisocial]

Hey Everyone. I've been lurking here forever and finally made the plunge to register! So... hi!

This is my first thread here, so please forgive me if I mess up the formatting/tags!

Here's the story.

I try to do all major purchases based on Total Cost of Ownership, especially expendable purchases, which with how much I drive, cars have always been. Based on that, until my current car I'd been driving base Honda Civic's for years, simply because they were the best fuel economy/car price trade off on a reliable vehicle.

In an attempt to prove out buying a Model S 60D back in 2015 when I bought my current car (a 2016 Chevy Volt) I worked up a TCO calculator for cars, factoring the local Gas prices and Electrical rates, EV incentives (which got considerably better just after I took ownership of my Volt, but that's another story), maintenance, and daily commute values.

I've updated that spreadsheet for the Model 3, and for my locale and commute, there's really no other logical choice.

That said, even if the Model 3 didn't come out in front... I'd still keep my reservation. I have a powerful need for this car.

Anyway, check out my spreadsheet. Point out any issues you see. and feel free to copy it and convert it to fit your needs/location.

Cars_2017

 

[NewTMSMan]

Maybe I missed it, but where is the residual value of the car in the TCO?

 

[NewTMSMan]

Copy of Cars_2017

Added a quick 5 and 8 year residual and changes the picture quite a bit.

 

[Dynastar]

Maybe I missed it, but where is the residual value of the car in the TCO?

It seems to assume you throw the car away after five years.

 

[NewTMSMan]

It seems to assume you throw the car away after five years.

Originally misread your post, I am assuming you are saying his analysis assumes the cars are disposed of for no value at the end of the analysis period, which is an incorrect assumption really.

 

[RedAntisocial]

Originally misread your post, I am assuming you are saying his analysis assumes the cars are disposed of for no value at the end of the analysis period, which is an incorrect assumption really.

You're very right @NewTMSMan ! Again, this sheet was built using my driving distances, and after 5 years, my cars are typically sitting ~250,000km (~160,000mi) at which point they get passed on to my wife, who only does short in-town driving (she's looking forward to the Volt).

I see you've posted an updated sheet with the residual calculation, which is great! But, unless I'm missing something, yours doesn't appear to take actual mileage driven into account, so I assume it's a base residual calculation for the average driver. Any idea how to add the mileage driven into the calculation?

 

[eSpiritIV]

Hey Everyone. I've been lurking here forever and finally made the plunge to register! So... hi!

This is my first thread here, so please forgive me if I mess up the formatting/tags!

Here's the story.

I try to do all major purchases based on Total Cost of Ownership, especially expendable purchases, which with how much I drive, cars have always been. Based on that, until my current car I'd been driving base Honda Civic's for years, simply because they were the best fuel economy/car price trade off on a reliable vehicle.

In an attempt to prove out buying a Model S 60D back in 2015 when I bought my current car (a 2016 Chevy Volt) I worked up a TCO calculator for cars, factoring the local Gas prices and Electrical rates, EV incentives (which got considerably better just after I took ownership of my Volt, but that's another story), maintenance, and daily commute values.

I've updated that spreadsheet for the Model 3, and for my locale and commute, there's really no other logical choice.

That said, even if the Model 3 didn't come out in front... I'd still keep my reservation. I have a powerful need for this car.

Anyway, check out my spreadsheet. Point out any issues you see. and feel free to copy it and convert it to fit your needs/location.

Cars_2017

So is this based on the m3 Long range (LR) or Standard range(SR). Seems like with low mileage needs you should pick SR and save $9,000

 

[cbutters]

Why do you add the cost of purchasing the car in twice for the gas cars on the bottom row?

 

[NewTMSMan]

You're very right @NewTMSMan ! Again, this sheet was built using my driving distances, and after 5 years, my cars are typically sitting ~250,000km (~160,000mi) at which point they get passed on to my wife, who only does short in-town driving (she's looking forward to the Volt).

I see you've posted an updated sheet with the residual calculation, which is great! But, unless I'm missing something, yours doesn't appear to take actual mileage driven into account, so I assume it's a base residual calculation for the average driver. Any idea how to add the mileage driven into the calculation?

Yes you are right, I am using an average model that I have developed for used car pricing analysis over a range of higher end cars with average mileage or less after 2-5 years. This model simplified is 20% loss in equity in the first year, 12% in year 2 and 7% every year after. I simplified it further in the original spreadsheet to just 20% in year one and 7% each subsequent year. I have now updated to the more accurate model. To account for miles I ran a Model S from 2013 with 48000 miles and 128,000 miles in KBB and looked at the difference in value and came up with a ratio to approximate the value loss of 60% of the ratio of the mileage. I have added that to the sheet I built also now. Of course the depreciation of all the cars are not equal and a Chevy will depreciate faster than a Tesla, but at least this is closer to accurate.

At that type of mileage and after 4 years on many of the cars you have listed there will be major repairs and overhauls likely required which would further make the Tesla seem a better option.

Hope this helps.

 

[NewTMSMan]

Oh also corrected a few other things in my version where you double counted cost for the car for ICE and also double counted 8 year operating costs for the 8 year TCO.

 

[RedAntisocial]

Oh also corrected a few other things in my version where you double counted cost for the car for ICE and also double counted 8 year operating costs for the 8 year TCO.

The double count of the ICE cars on my version is because they typically need replaced after 5 years or the reliability starts to tank

 

[cbutters]

The double count of the ICE cars on my version is because they typically need replaced after 5 years or the reliability starts to tank

I get your intent now... basically you are saying that the ICE car will definitely need replacing after 8 years, but the electric... perhaps not. Could be argued either way, but good to understand how the number is arrived at.

 

[ölbrenner]

The double count of the ICE cars on my version is because they typically need replaced after 5 years or the reliability starts to tank

Nice spreadsheet.

But really reliability tanks after 5 years? Do you change the oil ever? My current ICE car/truck are 9 and 11 years old respectively, and still reliable daily drivers (of course they are maintained by me not jiffy LOL). The two ICE cars before that were 13 and 14 years old, finally then did reliability wane.

 

[trm2]

I focused on the Volt because I have one. Ok, 2. I currently have a gen 1 and my wife has a gen 2. You seem to say that you use 7 liters of gas per day (which is enough for your entire commute) and you ignore the 85 km you can get on all electric, yet say you spend the entire amount on electric also. You also have an absurdly high maintenance cost (actual maintenance cost closer to 0 from experience driving a Volt for over 5 years), ignore the two years of free oil changes (I know big deal, you only need one in two years). Well, this is after configuring the Volt with every option including the outdoor car cover, the extra charging cable AND paying ful MSRP that no one pays (unlike the Tesla).

I get it, you want a Tesla - we all do or we wouldn’t be here. I sincerely hope you enjoy it. Get the Tesla, but don’t fool yourself.

I haven’t cancelled my model 3 reservation yet, but I’m probably going to order a model S in the next few days so will cancel. I’m not down on Tesla at all, but your spreadsheet shows huge bias.

PS, I may or may not have consumed an alcoholic beverage or three

 

[NewTMSMan]

The double count of the ICE cars on my version is because they typically need replaced after 5 years or the reliability starts to tank

Ok even if that were true, your equity position in the replacement vehicle at the time you purchase it is basically the value of the new car, so no pact on TCO at year 5. At year 8 you would still have about a non-zero equity position.

 

[RedAntisocial]

Nice spreadsheet.

But really reliability tanks after 5 years? Do you change the oil ever? My current ICE car/truck are 9 and 11 years old respectively, and still reliable daily drivers (of course they are maintained by me not jiffy LOL). The two ICE cars before that were 13 and 14 years old, finally then did reliability wane.

How far do you drive? I'm driving ~50,000km/year if it's a relatively quiet year...

I focused on the Volt because I have one. Ok, 2. I currently have a gen 1 and my wife has a gen 2. You seem to say that you use 7 liters of gas per day (which is enough for your entire commute) and you ignore the 85 km you can get on all electric, yet say you spend the entire amount on electric also. You also have an absurdly high maintenance cost (actual maintenance cost closer to 0 from experience driving a Volt for over 5 years), ignore the two years of free oil changes (I know big deal, you only need one in two years). Well, this is after configuring the Volt with every option including the outdoor car cover, the extra charging cable AND paying ful MSRP that no one pays (unlike the Tesla).

I get it, you want a Tesla - we all do or we wouldn’t be here. I sincerely hope you enjoy it. Get the Tesla, but don’t fool yourself.

I haven’t cancelled my model 3 reservation yet, but I’m probably going to order a model S in the next few days so will cancel. I’m not down on Tesla at all, but your spreadsheet shows huge bias.

PS, I may or may not have consumed an alcoholic beverage or three

Ok, keep in mind the prices you're seeing are in Canadian, and based on the features I want: ACC, heated seats and steering wheel (a MUST on an electric car to eke out the longest range), etc. As for the Volt, that's what I paid for the one I'm driving now, because that's what they Premiere Gen 2 cost at the end of 2015. And yes, I need to correct the maintenance cost on my Volt, it has turned out considerably lower than estimated at the time of purchase.

And when it comes to the mileage and gas calculations, those are fairly precise. The formula takes my daily commute (C), subtracts the electric range (R), divides by 100 (because fuel economy is measured in L/100km) and multiplies by the specific fuel economy of the car (E):
(C-R)/100)*E
(220-80)/100*5.0
(140)/100*5.0
1.4*5.0
7

 

[ANewHope]

Hey Everyone. I've been lurking here forever and finally made the plunge to register! So... hi!

This is my first thread here, so please forgive me if I mess up the formatting/tags!

Here's the story.

I try to do all major purchases based on Total Cost of Ownership, especially expendable purchases, which with how much I drive, cars have always been. Based on that, until my current car I'd been driving base Honda Civic's for years, simply because they were the best fuel economy/car price trade off on a reliable vehicle.

In an attempt to prove out buying a Model S 60D back in 2015 when I bought my current car (a 2016 Chevy Volt) I worked up a TCO calculator for cars, factoring the local Gas prices and Electrical rates, EV incentives (which got considerably better just after I took ownership of my Volt, but that's another story), maintenance, and daily commute values.

I've updated that spreadsheet for the Model 3, and for my locale and commute, there's really no other logical choice.

That said, even if the Model 3 didn't come out in front... I'd still keep my reservation. I have a powerful need for this car.

Anyway, check out my spreadsheet. Point out any issues you see. and feel free to copy it and convert it to fit your needs/location.

Cars_2017

As far as I can tell you have a few costs that need correcting:
1) Delivery: cost of electricity is not just the generation cost of the electricity ($0.065), but you also need to include the variable costs of delivering the electricity to you (i.e. the electricity did not just get to you for free, for example there are transmission and distribution charges).
2) Charging efficiency: You calculate your weekly electricity costs as the kWh amount used in the car, but to get say X kWh of energy in the car what came out of the time of use meter (what you pay) is more than X kWh, there are charging losses.
3) Time of Use: Are you really going to be able to charge 100% of the time overnight at lowest costs? Depending on your driving pattern, I think you should minimum add a 10% fudge factor to at least account for: some charging off peak times, and needing to charge on the road. After all Tesla supercharger rates won't be free and will probably come in at around CAD$0.20/kWh. As I understand it Tesla does not actually charge per kWh, but at a rate per minute that is tiered depending on your charging rate.

So now some more gory details:
1) Delivery: Given your north of Toronto location, I presume you have similar costs to me in Toronto (Toronto Hydro), which even if you are not with Toronto Hydro would have been approved by the Ontario Energy Board. I know there are sunk costs that you already pay so it does not make sense to pro-rate those or include those as a cost for electric vehicles (eg. $27.69/30days customer charge that is buried in the delivery charge). However, delivery charge components that are specifically billed on a kWh basis should be included in your cost to drive a vehicle as those directly go up based on kWh consumption and are not sunk costs. There are a ridiculous number of charges that specifically apply to electricity consumption and are billed on kWh basis, including:
Transmission charge: $0.0133/kWh
Distribution charge: $0.01512/kWh
Anyhow, you probably need to add about $0.03/kWh as the "Delivery" charge on top of cost of electricity.
2) Charging efficiency: You can google this but people seem to be getting around 80% efficiency. i.e. If you pay your utility for 100 kWh, only 80 kWh will make it into the battery. So you need to increase kWh costs by 25% to add back the 20 kWh costs that you used when you drove with 80 kWh used in the battery.

I find that when you do the math on a high mpg ICE (eg Prius) vs say a Model 3, using the "true" kWh costs vs a high mpg gas car, the "fuel" savings are somewhat marginal. Certainly not enough to say that it financially makes sense to get a Model 3. However, if Model 3 does become full self driving like Elon Musk says it will, that is a different story. It greatly increases the utility of a Model 3.

 

[T34ME]

All the spreadsheets leave out the medical costs to society for breathing polluted air as a result of driving ICE. It is more than simple personal TCO. Electric cars (not just Teslas) address the bigger picture and the costs could be staggering. This is why many progressive countries, like China and others, are phasing out ICE vehicles.

 

[ANewHope]

Woah, the spreadsheet could be going off the rails now and be incalculable.

"Electric cars (not just Teslas) address the bigger picture and the costs could be staggering."
I am a tesla 3 reservation holder, but I really don't think electric cars address the bigger picture. Electric cars is only an incremental improvement in the big picture. All those thousands of pounds of raw materials that make up an electric vehicle can't be ignored. Their mining, manufacturing, transportation polluted and desecrated some part of the planet. To address the big picture, people need to move home, work, school, grocery shopping, etc to walking or bike distance. 20lb in raw materials of bike VS thousands of pounds in an electric car is the quantum leap that saves the planet and our health, but China didn't seem to like that when they had that not too long ago. I don't expect prosperous materialistic western countries would like that either.

 

[Hamilton C]

Insurance cost?
Thanks for excellent spread sheet.. Obviously the details of electric cost (multiple variables) will vary widely depending on electric supplier here in US.
I would want to add in insurance costs which I am hearing are significantly higher for Tesla compared to other brads here in the US.