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Is anyone else gonna wait to buy a used M3?

Calitrojan

New Member
May 20, 2017
3
0
LA
I'm just curious. I just don't feel the need to buy an M3 brand new when I know the value will drop the minute it leaves the parking lot. There's only a few options I want too. Although I can see the appeal of picking up a new car from the service center (or the factory if you can).
 

azred

Active Member
Apr 12, 2016
1,961
2,906
Chandler, AZ
I'm just curious. I just don't feel the need to buy an M3 brand new when I know the value will drop the minute it leaves the parking lot. There's only a few options I want too. Although I can see the appeal of picking up a new car from the service center (or the factory if you can).
Sounds like you aren't on the waiting list or high on it. My $7500 tax credit will cover that "drop the minute it leaves the parking lot." But I assume you are too late to get that nice bonus. Good luck to you with your strategy.
 

Big-T

Member
Sep 14, 2015
529
496
Seattle, WA
Yeah, I"m not convinced waiting is going to financially work out the same as a normal car: Let's say you buy a base 35k TM3 new.

1) Your actual price will be $27,500 (plus tax and minus any state rebates you may have.
2) After one year the average car depreciates 20% of so which is $28,000
3) I would say, because the Model 3 will likely still be constrained for well over a year after production starts the depreciation will be less, say 15%
4) At the end of year two, let's say Tesla is finally meeting demand, more or less, car still more advanced than most out there and is holding it's value a little better than average, has deprecated 25% now $26,250
5) Year 3, the time a lot of folks traditionally trade in a car because most manufacture warranties and leases expire. Tesla still under warranty holds a little better than average still, let's call depreciation at 35% $22,750

So really you'll have to wait until year 3 to buy a Tesla for less than you would drive it off the lot brand new. What advantage would you have on waiting until 2021 to buy the same car you can have in 2018?
 
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NikeWings

Active Member
Apr 7, 2016
2,117
2,848
California
There have been debates on other threads that a used M3 may not lose much value initially due to the demand backlog, creating a very strong resale market during the first 9 months or so. Depending on how long "wait" means to you, it could be awhile if you have a set target price in mind, less any available incentives which may sunset during your wait.
 

Sasmania

Member
Aug 22, 2014
390
598
Scottsdale & Flagstaff AZ
Yeah, I"m not convinced waiting is going to financially work out the same as a normal car: Let's say you buy a base 35k TM3 new.

1) Your actual price will be $27,500 (plus tax and minus any state rebates you may have.
2) After one year the average car depreciates 20% of so which is $28,000
3) I would say, because the Model 3 will likely still be constrained for well over a year after production starts the depreciation will be less, say 15%
4) At the end of year two, let's say Tesla is finally meeting demand, more or less, car still more advanced than most out there and is holding it's value a little better than average, has deprecated 25% now $26,250
5) Year 3, the time a lot of folks traditionally trade in a car because most manufacture warranties and leases expire. Tesla still under warranty holds a little better than average still, let's call depreciation at 35% $22,750

So really you'll have to wait until year 3 to buy a Tesla for less than you would drive it off the lot brand new. What advantage would you have on waiting until 2021 to buy the same car you can have in 2018?

Exactly... was just gonna say the same, but you did it so well...
 

Calitrojan

New Member
May 20, 2017
3
0
LA
There have been debates on other threads that a used M3 may not lose much value initially due to the demand backlog, creating a very strong resale market during the first 9 months or so. Depending on how long "wait" means to you, it could be awhile if you have a set target price in mind, less any available incentives which may sunset during your wait.
Even if I had put down a deposit, I would not qualify for the tax credit. What waiting would do is lower my car insurance because being 25 somehow qualifies me to not pay more.
 

Calitrojan

New Member
May 20, 2017
3
0
LA
Sounds like you aren't on the waiting list or high on it. My $7500 tax credit will cover that "drop the minute it leaves the parking lot." But I assume you are too late to get that nice bonus. Good luck to you with your strategy.
Aside from some assumptions you've made, it wouldn't have been financially responsible to put down a deposit when it was announced.
 

NikeWings

Active Member
Apr 7, 2016
2,117
2,848
California
Even if I had put down a deposit, I would not qualify for the tax credit. What waiting would do is lower my car insurance because being 25 somehow qualifies me to not pay more.
Got it!. Sounds like you've got a well thought out plan and sometimes you've got to just run with it, and not over analyze things. Stick with your instincts.
 

strykeroz

Member
May 27, 2016
636
445
Brisbane, Australia
There's no arguing against your premise that a new car depreciates more than a 2nd hand one. It's just there's no way to get a car as good as an M3 next year without doing just that. Like others in this thread have already said, if you've been hanging out for a decent BEV at a price you can afford that's the price you'll be paying.

Shame you live so far away as I'll hopefully have a nicely pre-depreciated right-hand-drive first generation M3 available when you're ready...
 
Apr 22, 2017
192
168
Denver, Colorado
Yea I didnt preorder the first day. Which I wish I did for that tax credit. I later intended to buy a CPO M3. Hope that preowned models reflect the standard depreciation and the tax credit in its pricing.

I did just buy a preowned MS though since I really couldn't wait any longer to get a tesla. Preowneds should be available by end of year I would say as people may realize they don't want it. But those will also go like hotcakes
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,528
21,465
USA
Yea I didnt preorder the first day. Which I wish I did for that tax credit. I later intended to buy a CPO M3. Hope that preowned models reflect the standard depreciation and the tax credit in its pricing.

I did just buy a preowned MS though since I really couldn't wait any longer to get a tesla. Preowneds should be available by end of year I would say as people may realize they don't want it. But those will also go like hotcakes


Because you are now in the Tesla club you might have priority, you might be able to jump in line for the M3 and get an earlier build slot.

You will get some tax credit. You can then sell your S and you wouldn't lose much since the majority of the depreciation has already happened.
 

SteveG3

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Sep 21, 2012
4,013
15,450
US
I'm just curious. I just don't feel the need to buy an M3 brand new when I know the value will drop the minute it leaves the parking lot. There's only a few options I want too. Although I can see the appeal of picking up a new car from the service center (or the factory if you can).

I think whether you have another car or not during this period is also part of the equation.

If no car, and you can wait out 2.5 to 3.5 years, I think you'll start to see Model 3's in the mid-high $20Ks by then (I agree with other posters that there will be shortage of M3's quite a long time, so it's very likely to retain value considerably better than usual. This will start to be offset as the years go by given Tesla's faster than average rate of improving their vehicles, i.e., more than with most models, some 2018 M3 buyers will see improvements by Tesla to the M3 2-3 years later that make them want to sell their '18 and get the latest and greatest).

If you do have a car, you might want to factor in the savings on gas, and the fact that your current car will depreciate some, understandably not as much, as well. While the older the car, the less impact depreciation will have, you may want to consider the older the car, the more likely that you will have to pay for repairs. What's more, the tax credit phases out over roughly a year or so. There's a reasonable chance you would qualify for part of the phased out amount (probably either when it gets to 1/2 or 1/4 of the $7.5K original amount).

All that said, even though I'm a shareholder, lols, I think you are onto something, in that life can be lived without this, that, or even the Model 3 (apparently humans have been living without the M3 for ages).
 

david_42

Member
Oct 30, 2006
429
342
South of Portland, OR
Wait? No, but our reservation number is so high that I'm hoping there are people who purchase a RWD and when the AWD version comes out buy one and put their RWD on the market. Has to be blue.
 

JeffK

Well-Known Member
Apr 27, 2016
6,997
6,930
Indianapolis
Wait? No, but our reservation number is so high that I'm hoping there are people who purchase a RWD and when the AWD version comes out buy one and put their RWD on the market. Has to be blue.
I'm not sure why anyone would want to buy a RWD model just to sell it in one to four months later when AWD is out, unless it's an employee model. That's a large amount of impatient tax.
 
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