Is Musk lying on maximum battery capacity?

[Reciprocity]

The behavior is different depending on the time scale. They run on goodwill.

For example, Ford's growth with the model T was not fueled by charging what the market would bare...

I don't think the model T had 500,000 reservations for car no one had seen in person. Apples to oranges. Nothing in Tesla's history says they are going for the bottom of the barrel pricing. They have good margins for a reason. They need them to fuel expansion. MASSIVE expansion. I mean, 10-20 gigafactories kinds of massive. No one is going to give Tesla 50-100B to build those factories. They have to fund most it from revenues and profits, which means high margins.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Its not ALL about the [strike]money[/strike] funding.

It is all about the funding of future development. Period. Not a charity. If you have 500,000 cars to sell and 600,000 people who want them desperately, you sell the high margin ones first then lower the price as your costs go down due to the maturing product cycle.

Tesla isn't selling the High Margin Model 3's first. They are selling the low margin ones first.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't think the model T had 500,000 reservations for car no one had seen in person. Apples to oranges. Nothing in Tesla's history says they are going for the bottom of the barrel pricing. They have good margins for a reason. They need them to fuel expansion. MASSIVE expansion. I mean, 10-20 gigafactories kinds of massive. No one is going to give Tesla 50-100B to build those factories. They have to fund most it from revenues and profits, which means high margins.

I could care less about a Model T.

Look. Companies WILL loan Tesla whatever it wants because they see the potential. NOT PROFITS. Tesla has a ton of credit with their automotive division as well as all of their other divisions.

Tesla can and will build those factories if its part of their business plan part Deaux. 20 gigafactories will be a necessity if their business plan is realized.

THEY HAVE NO PROFITS YET.

Investors Trust Tesla and the competition is fearful.....and they have NO PROFITS.

 

[Reciprocity]

I could care less about a Model T.

Look. Companies WILL loan Tesla whatever it wants because they see the potential. NOT PROFITS. Tesla has a ton of credit with their automotive division as well as all of their other divisions.

Tesla can and will build those factories if its part of their business plan part Deaux. 20 gigafactories will be a necessity if their business plan is realized.

THEY HAVE NO PROFITS YET.

Investors Trust Tesla and the competition is fearful.....and they have NO PROFITS.

Fake news. That good will, will not last forever. It's going to take decades to build 20 gigafactories.

Your are going to see soon enough who is right. As soon as the configurator comes out. Until then, don't quote me boi I ain't said sh*t.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla isn't selling the High Margin Model 3's first. They are selling the low margin ones first.

Fake news. 75KWh battery first and only those who don't want to wait for duel motor, which is most.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Fake news. That good will, will not last forever. It's going to take decades to build 20 gigafactories.

Your are going to see soon enough who is right. As soon as the configurator comes out. Until then, don't quote me boi I ain't said sh*t.

20 gigafactories isn't part of any business plan. Link?

That's what I've been saying all along. Lets wait the 2 weeks. Being right is overrated. There are no prizes here in a forum. No celebrations. When the configurator comes out....there had better be at least a $35k car there or the investors are going to bail faster than anyone has ever seen.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Fake news. 75KWh battery first and only those who don't want to wait for duel motor, which is most.

1 color and some rims on the 29th. There has been no promise of battery size nor anything. Link?

 

[Reciprocity]

1 color and some rims on the 29th. There has been no promise of battery size nor anything. Link?

Well known fact that the initial units are the larger battery. 70/75 is up for debate but it's the larger battery. You will see in 11 says, the 28th btw.

 

[Reciprocity]

20 gigafactories isn't part of any business plan. Link?

That's what I've been saying all along. Lets wait the 2 weeks. Being right is overrated. There are no prizes here in a forum. No celebrations. When the configurator comes out....there had better be at least a $35k car there or the investors are going to bail faster than anyone has ever seen.

Elon said 10-20 gigafactories at the annual meeting. I don't have a link, I'm not your Google. Look it up.

 

[JeffK]

Elon said 10-20 gigafactories at the annual meeting. I don't have a link, I'm not your Google. Look it up.

He said two or three in the US in the "next few years". Note the Gigafactory is a cost of $5 billion over the course of a few years.

You can't accelerate *sugar* if you sell stuff on thin margins.

Tesla's margins have been and continue to be one of the best in the entire automotive industry... I'm not sure what "thin margins" you are referring to.

 

[alehbaba]

where did he say its a 75 battery?

 

[Model 3]

Totally different situation. One is a mature product where demand and supply are more on sync. When demand way out strips supply by like 10x then you can ask more for higher margin versions of the car, while still maintaining the promote of a $35k base version.

And what has this to do with what you quoted?
Is 15kWh difference in battery size more if demand and supply are in sync then when demand out strips supply? Will this 15kWh give more or less range based on demand?

 

[kbM3]

My calculation is close. I'm calculating 52.9 kWh needed for 214.6 mi EPA. I expect the 55 kWh pack to have 53.8 kWh usable capacity which translates to 218 mi EPA but I haven't included aero wheels in my calculations. Those should add a little more range too. The fact that Aero wheels even exist shows how focused Tesla is to squeeze every possible mile out of the battery. The Reddit topic about those wheels is here.

Thanks for all of your effort. I I absolutely love your posts. I have a couple of questions and/or observations.

Wouldn't you assume that the aero wheels are already taken into account in achieving the CD of 0.21?

In estimating the weight, what energy density improvement did you assume for the 2170 cells?

You pretty much convinced me that the base model will have 55 kWh. However, did you consider the fact that Tesla seems to be moving towards packages or bundles. Maybe the 75 kWh will be differentiated by more than the battery size. Maybe the 60 kWh (if they build one) would be less luxurious / premium in order to encourage upgrade?

 

[JeffK]

Maybe the 60 kWh (if they build one) would be less luxurious / premium in order to encourage upgrade?

I believe there will be plenty demand for a 75 kWh as evidenced by Tesla's statements when discontinuing the Model S 60.

One year ago, we introduced the Model S 60 kWh battery as a more affordable option to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles. However, most customers ended up buying an equivalent to the Model S 75 kWh. To simplify the ordering process for our customers, we will be removing the 60 kWh option from our lineup.

After this, the price for the software upgrade from 60 to 75 dropped to $2000

 

[Garlan Garner]

Elon said 10-20 gigafactories at the annual meeting. I don't have a link, I'm not your Google. Look it up.

Nope.. That's not how that works. You have to support your own claims. Till then.....its all speculation.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @kbM3. Thanks. I like these kind questions.

1. Aero wheels: I don't know for sure. It might be already included because 0.21 is very aggressive. Elon said hopefully 0.21, not definitely, maybe he was hoping with the aero wheels they would get from maybe 0.22 to 0.21. Also, the Model S used to have Aero wheels. It's hard to imagine they wouldn't have thought of Aero wheels all along. On the other hand, the Model S version looked terrible and was discontinued even though they improved range. Therefore maybe initially they dismissed the Aero wheels idea but then when Elon saw the beautiful design, he said let's add these. I haven't seen the Model 3 Aero wheels until recently. Therefore it could be a recent idea. It's hard to tell, I will give this a 50/50.

2. I assumed 17% improvement in energy density at the cell level over current Model S cells. You can see the *0.83 here in cell K41 and below. I separated pack case weight from cell weight. I found data about pack weight here and an anecdotal number by WK057 here for pack case weight.

3. Batching options: This is like saying because you could potentially fix a problem this or that way, there is no harm in creating the problem. How about not creating the problem in the first place? Why would they make the 60 with 235-240 mi EPA at $35K the best Tesla deal ever only to try to desperately make it less impressive? That would be such a great car, 50% of Model 3 sales would be 60 kWh. Even if the 60 had no luxury options, how bad can it be? It will have optional Autopilot and Supercharging.

 

[Reciprocity]

Nope.. That's not how that works. You have to support your own claims. Till then.....its all speculation.

I really don't need support anything, this isn't testifying in front of Congress and I'm not here to educate you on economics and fundamentals of business. Anyone who thinks Tesla is in business to be a charity to save the planet you are nuts. Tesla plan is simple and brilliant. To accelerate the transition. Not to do it all themselves at 0 margin. The brilliant part of Tesla's plan is to create enormous amounts of demand and force competitors to react. This acts as a force multiplier and this accelerates the plan. But let's be clear, Tesla is starting up market where the margins are. Think Apple vs Android.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Hi, @kbM3.
3. Batching options: This is like saying because you could potentially fix a problem this or that way, there is no harm in creating the problem. How about not creating the problem in the first place? Why would they make the 60 with 235-240 mi EPA at $35K the best Tesla deal ever only to try to desperately make it less impressive? That would be such a great car, 50% of Model 3 sales would be 60 kWh. Even if the 60 had no luxury options, how bad can it be? It will have optional Autopilot and Supercharging.

Well, Elon DID say it would be the best $35k car you could buy, even without any options. Makes you wonder.....

While I think your arguments, primarily from a numbers view, are very compelling I'm not sure you're factoring in something almost as important: marketing. With just about ANY car- the base car is far and away the best value but it is rarely the sales leader. If they bundle an upgraded model 3 with the 75kwh battery, upgraded interior, better performance, etc. THAT'S the car for the Tesla fans and what I'll call "BMW buyers". The base model is trying to eat the Camry/Accord/Prius/insertgenericfamilysedanhere's lunch. And will probably do so in spades.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I really don't need support anything, this isn't testifying in front of Congress and I'm not here to educate you on economics and fundamentals of business. Anyone who thinks Tesla is in business to be a charity to save the planet you are nuts. Tesla plan is simple and brilliant. To accelerate the transition. Not to do it all themselves at 0 margin. The brilliant part of Tesla's plan is to create enormous amounts of demand and force competitors to react. This acts as a force multiplier and this accelerates the plan. But let's be clear, Tesla is starting up market where the margins are. Think Apple vs Android.

Nope. Still. You make a claim. back it up. At least support your own claims. Don't deflect with other conversations.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. I created a poll for the most popular topic people have been talking about in this thread:

Predictions Competition Poll #2: What will be the smallest Model 3 battery size?


@shrspeedblade, in conference calls, analysts used to ask questions like why don't you advertise, why don't you participate in this EV racing competition, why don't you this or that ... Elon's answer was always the same: "We are production constrained, not demand constrained". Also, he talked many times how they can create demand at will, anytime they want by simply building more stores or superchargers somewhere.

In fact, the range improvement idea would be another great method to create more demand once they are constrained by demand and not production. With 400K reservations, Tesla doesn't need more marketing. Like Elon says, they are not trying to make the waiting list longer. They are anti-selling the Model 3.