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Is now REALLY a good time to buy a new Tesla? [Jan 2023 / April 2023]
- Thread starter bbqc
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CleanDemon
Member
We bought my wife a new 2023 MYP a month ago. The price drop and tax credit made it easy to make the decision. We love the car - best one we’ve owned. I’m considering getting me a 2024 MYP next year after the update and new hardware come out.
tm3lrawd
Member
In March, I declined a VIN and was offered up to a 2 week hold. After that I must accept a new VIN and then accept that car or my reservation would be canceled. I hear that Tesla used to offer longer holds, but not anymore.
If you're financially responsible anytime is a good time. You could be dead tomorrow, why wait? Little secret... all these cars are trash....when a decade from now we look back.
If you can hold off, I think it would be smart to wait.
1) We now know the $7500 is not going away during 2023;
2) Possibility that the 2 new colors are coming to the US;
3) Possibility that HW4 will be rolling out this year, better features and improved safety;
4) Inventory is growing, production is expanding, Mr. Musk may drop prices further, especially at end of Q2 and Q3 based on past practices.
My 2 cents.
1) We now know the $7500 is not going away during 2023;
2) Possibility that the 2 new colors are coming to the US;
3) Possibility that HW4 will be rolling out this year, better features and improved safety;
4) Inventory is growing, production is expanding, Mr. Musk may drop prices further, especially at end of Q2 and Q3 based on past practices.
My 2 cents.
I've purchased two Tesla vehicles... First one I waited and waited on and got screwed. The other I pulled the trigger as soon as they announced the $7,500 rebate in late December and got screwed.
Lesson: Whether you buy now or buy later, you're screwed either way.
Lesson: Whether you buy now or buy later, you're screwed either way.
All reports are that you cannot retrofit from HW3 to HW4, per EM himself. To me, that is a big hardware update.
Pricing is a guessing game, I agree.
The new colors are also not "upgradeable". Both the Quicksilver and the Cherry Red look awesome, and it will help your new car stand out from the crowd of the now ubiquitous Tesla Model Y's.
The "rush" to beat the March 31 deadline is gone.
The existing Model Y is a great vehicle. But if you are not in a rush, some major non-software upgrades appear relatively imminent....
Pricing is a guessing game, I agree.
The new colors are also not "upgradeable". Both the Quicksilver and the Cherry Red look awesome, and it will help your new car stand out from the crowd of the now ubiquitous Tesla Model Y's.
The "rush" to beat the March 31 deadline is gone.
The existing Model Y is a great vehicle. But if you are not in a rush, some major non-software upgrades appear relatively imminent....
Obviously waiting for every enhancement is never ending, but that doesn't mean all enhancements are the same. HW upgrades have not been done on short cycles (below), so waiting for HW4 for those who can, is a valid option - especially knowing the current M3/Y have the fewest sensors (no radar, no USS) and inferior cameras to what's already come to the S/X. HW4 and the new sensors will be more capable, and have better resale - especially once the limited sensor versions are shown to be less capable - only a matter of time.
While price can't be predicted, there aren't signs suggesting the price will spike up anytime soon...a calculated risk we all have to decide on.
HW2 Oct 16
HW2.5 Aug 17
HW3 Mar 19
HW4 Mar 23?
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The only advancement that I’m concerned with is battery technology; I have no faith in FSD. I actually placed an order today for a MYP. I currently have a Jan 21 build MYLR and want the improved suspension and the federal tax credit; so, I placed an order to take advantage of the price reduction. Maybe the financials are different for me because I already have a model Y and if Tesla actually follows through with these improvements my current vehicle could potentially lose value. But at any rate the numbers worked out in such a way that I felt it was a good call.
More price cuts. https://electrek.co/2023/04/18/tesla-slashes-price-again/ I verified this on Tesla.com.
i kinda agree. I purchased a SR3 in february. here in canada, the price drop of 5k triggered the additional 5k federal grant so 10k off. maybe prices will drop further in canada who knows. but i'm happy as a clam. i know it has no radar, and just HW3...but i didn't really buy it because i have high hopes for FSD. honestly the basic autopilot is great for me in stop and go rush hour traffic. I love that it has the LFP batteries...i can charge to 100% and do a DoD down to 5% without worrying. feel like you're able to use the entire battery capacity. that's all i want in my EV.
looks like my patience paid off, i guess time to pull the trigger or wait for another round of cuts during quarter end?
Yeah if you really knew for certain what was gonna happen going forward you'd be so rich you wouldn't need to wait to purchase anything.
You dont really have to be a financial guru or quantum physics scientist to predict any of this. With Tesla, its incredibly simple = a shortage of inventory and long wait times for delivery probably means the price will go up.. whereas a glutton of inventory piling up into the thousands of units unsold, means the price will do down. Use any inventory tracker you wish.. I prefer to use https://ev-tsla.com/
And yes for anyone who is paying attention, it's pretty easy to notice that Teslas have been starting to pile up in existing inventory for the past couple months. Right now that tracker is saying there are currently 3,300 Teslas just sitting in inventory. Over 1000 of inventory vehicles are Model Y's which is their BEST selling vehicle. I haven't seen a 1000 Model Y's sitting unsold since December of 2022.. which kinda paints the picture of just how much inventory they now have sitting around.
There is no way Tesla is going to let these vehicles continue to pile up. Their entire market valuation is based on them selling 10-20M vehicles annually by 2030. If it's already 2023 and they can't even sell every vehicle they are producing right now with the goal of selling 1.8M before the end of the year.. then common sense alone dictates they have to throw some pretty serious incentives at these vehicles to get them moving again. Granted those incentives could be things like free Supercharger miles.. or even possibly free software (EAP or FSD).
But what is most likely to get buyers to purchase a new Tesla.. is dropping the price of the vehicle by a noticeable amount. I'll be sure to be watching these trackers.. especially at the end of every quarter to see if Tesla is basically forced to add more incentives, promotions or discounts.
why does everyone feel like this is some secret plan or market secret they cracked? Tesla has shared this price reduction strategy on their website and publicly since 2006. You actually don’t need to be a financial guru you simply need to read what they said they are going to do! Increase volume and lower prices. IE strangle the competition.
Because the reality is that NO for-profit corporation or its shareholders want to leave money on the table.
This is exactly why Tesla raised the prices in 2021 & 2022 when the wait to buy a new Y increased to over a year. Because they could. Now that the tables have turned they are essentially forced to lower prices as the remaining inventory is starting to pile up after every quarter. Anybody pretending that Tesla wants to keep dropping the price of the Model Y is doing just that.. pretending. If it was possible to sell every Model Y for a starting price of $65,990 that's exactly what Tesla would be doing!
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