Is now REALLY a good time to buy a new Tesla? [Jan 2023 / April 2023]

[bbqc]

Many of you are excited about the recent price cut on Tesla models and are ready to bite the bait. And those who had purchased their cars last year were whining about the massive price reduction. But, as the title says, is now really a good time to buy a new Tesla?

Here is my story for you to think about. I placed an order for a white 7-seater MYLR in August 2022 and the price was $70,990. Now, the price lowers to $58,990 after the price cut. Considering the “potential” tax credit (not sure if we will qualify given the income limit), my savings from waiting till now is $19,750 (I was contacted by Tesla for delivery in November and December, but I insisted to not remove the hold).

Perhaps, this makes you to believe that I have managed to save nearly $20k, but this is not true. Shortly after the order was placed in August 2022, I went to Carmax and got $40,000 for trading in my 2018 M3LR. I did not take the offer. We all know this is a big mistake by now. The next time I got the car appraised by Carmax in early December, the offer was down to $27,000, in a little over 3 months. Just when you think it cannot go lower, I was given only $22,000 yesterday from Carmax, another $5,000 decrease in a month. You think this is the end of story? No, today, Tesla gave me a trade in estimate for only $14,000!

Overall, my M3LR has lost $18,000 by Carmax estimate and $26,000 by Tesla’s own estimate over 5 months! I am sure those with newer models will suffer larger losses in their trade in values. Considering the price cut, I am saving only ~$2,000 compared to last August and I will need to wait till next year to figure out if I will be able to get the tax credit. If I were to go with Tesla trade in, I am effectively losing $6,000 due to the ridiculous decline in the trade in values.

I was assigned an VIN two days ago and was given till tomorrow to schedule delivery. I am thinking of canceling the order. Based on the Tesla new car inventory chart, this massive cut in new car price has not driven the inventory down much. I am predicting an end of quarter sale push in March or another round of price cut in a couple of months. What your choice will be if you were in my shoes?

And if I schedule a delivery, can I cancel it later (when it approaches the delivery date) with no further obligation other than losing the $250 order fee? I have not yet decline an VIN, can I still decline the VIN and get kicked back to the line after I schedule delivery?

 

[NeverGoingBack]

My opinion? ANY time is a good time to buy a Tesla. My Tesla is not an investment. It is a car. Best one I’ve ever had. Worth every penny.

 

[WhiteOnWhiteMY]

Many of you are excited about the recent price cut on Tesla models and are ready to bite the bait. And those who had purchased their cars last year were whining about the massive price reduction. But, as the title says, is now really a good time to buy a new Tesla?

Here is my story for you to think about. I placed an order for a white 7-seater MYLR in August 2022 and the price was $70,990. Now, the price lowers to $58,990 after the price cut. Considering the “potential” tax credit (not sure if we will qualify given the income limit), my savings from waiting till now is $19,750 (I was contacted by Tesla for delivery in November and December, but I insisted to not remove the hold).

Perhaps, this makes you to believe that I have managed to save nearly $20k, but this is not true. Shortly after the order was placed in August 2022, I went to Carmax and got $40,000 for trading in my 2018 M3LR. I did not take the offer. We all know this is a big mistake by now. The next time I got the car appraised by Carmax in early December, the offer was down to $27,000, in a little over 3 months. Just when you think it cannot go lower, I was given only $22,000 yesterday from Carmax, another $5,000 decrease in a month. You think this is the end of story? No, today, Tesla gave me a trade in estimate for only $14,000!

Overall, my M3LR has lost $18,000 by Carmax estimate and $26,000 by Tesla’s own estimate over 5 months! I am sure those with newer models will suffer larger losses in their trade in values. Considering the price cut, I am saving only ~$2,000 compared to last August and I will need to wait till next year to figure out if I will be able to get the tax credit. If I were to go with Tesla trade in, I am effectively losing $6,000 due to the ridiculous decline in the trade in values.

I was assigned an VIN two days ago and was given till tomorrow to schedule delivery. I am thinking of canceling the order. Based on the Tesla new car inventory chart, this massive cut in new car price has not driven the inventory down much. I am predicting an end of quarter sale push in March or another round of price cut in a couple of months. What your choice will be if you were in my shoes?

And if I schedule a delivery, can I cancel it later (when it approaches the delivery date) with no further obligation other than losing the $250 order fee? I have not yet decline an VIN, can I still decline the VIN and get kicked back to the line after I schedule delivery?

Wow, that's tough. Any additional price cuts appear to correlate directly to your trade-in value. I suppose I think beyond just the finances of it, what are you looking for in the Model Y? I think that matters more here. Do you want to be back under manufacturer warranty, more space, and an improved MCU? What are your thoughts on losing the parking sensors?

 

[Ogre]

This has nothing to do with it being a good or bad time to buy a Tesla. You are concerned that it’s a bad time to trade in your Tesla. Lots of us don’t trade in, either buying new or selling our old vehicle on the open market.

Used prices were super inflated last year due to the wait list. I had an offer for my Model Y which was $15,000 over what I paid for it. It’s pretty unlikely we’ll ever see that sort of used vehicle bubble again.

There is a decent chance used Tesla prices are on the low side right now, but I wouldn’t gamble on them going up either.

In general it’s a fine time to buy a new Tesla. Upgrading? Probably not.

PS: You have plenty of company. Seems like most people who have tried to time their Tesla upgrade based on projected rebates end up disappointed for one reason or another.

 

[WhiteOnWhiteMY]

Also, with project highland in the works for M3 (and presumably MY), I would recommend waiting, as what you're giving up financially doesn't seem to be worth it from an external perspective for what you gain.

 

[zoomer0056]

And if I schedule a delivery, can I cancel it later (when it approaches the delivery date) with no further obligation other than losing the $250 order fee? I have not yet decline an VIN, can I still decline the VIN and get kicked back to the line after I schedule delivery?

Until you sign on the dotted line and pass your $ over you're not obligated to anything. Tesla is not the boss of you.

 

[flgatorfan]

Sounds like you don't really need a MYLR7. That said, price of your used Tesla will be affected by price of new Teslas. You've noted that you'd be in a similar position had you bought at the height of the craziness, so why continue to worry about the timing?

 

[bbqc]

My opinion? ANY time is a good time to buy a Tesla. My Tesla is not an investment. It is a car. Best one I’ve ever had. Worth every penny.

I don’t consider a Tesla car as investment, but when something depreciates ~50% over a period of merely 5 months, one may naturally have a second thought about putting more money on it.

 

[bbqc]

Wow, that's tough. Any additional price cuts appear to correlate directly to your trade-in value. I suppose I think beyond just the finances of it, what are you looking for in the Model Y? I think that matters more here. Do you want to be back under manufacturer warranty, more space, and an improved MCU? What are your thoughts on losing the parking sensors?

I have a new family addition last year, so need a big car (hence the 7 seater MY). Also, my 2018 M3 started throwing minor problems from last summer, e.g., doors locks fail to engage from time to time.

This is actually my wife’s car. Parking sensor are quite important, I am hoping Tesla vision will be delivered soon, but who knows…

 

[normanfox]

I have the same debate whether to buy now (taking advantage of price discount and tax credit) or wait. I don't really need a new car now and can wait.
Here is how decide to wait:
1) price will stay the same or go lower by year end due to economic downturn and high interest rate
2) Tesla remove Radar a while ago (due to supply issue?), which might cause phantom brake. Rumors indicated they will put Radar back
3) Tesla is planning to upgrade to high resolution camera. 2 and 3 would help with autopilot issues what many people complain now.
4) Tax credit might be less due to battery chemistry origin but won't lose the whole credit

Based on the above reasons, I felt I gain more by waiting.

 

[bbqc]

This has nothing to do with it being a good or bad time to buy a Tesla. You are concerned that it’s a bad time to trade in your Tesla. Lots of us don’t trade in, either buying new or selling our old vehicle on the open market.

Used prices were super inflated last year due to the wait list. I had an offer for my Model Y which was $15,000 over what I paid for it. It’s pretty unlikely we’ll ever see that sort of used vehicle bubble again.

There is a decent chance used Tesla prices are on the low side right now, but I wouldn’t gamble on them going up either.

In general it’s a fine time to buy a new Tesla. Upgrading? Probably not.

PS: You have plenty of company. Seems like most people who have tried to time their Tesla upgrade based on projected rebates end up disappointed for one reason or another.

True. Given the crash of used car market (particularly Tesla), it’s hard to believe this won’t affect the new car sales. At least, this massive price cut has not created a huge decrease in new car inventory numbers as the $7,500 incentives around last Christmas.

Another reason for this post was to point out that those who bought new Tesla cars last year probably have not suffered as much due to the increased trade in value at that time.

 

[bbqc]

Sounds like you don't really need a MYLR7. That said, price of your used Tesla will be affected by price of new Teslas. You've noted that you'd be in a similar position had you bought at the height of the craziness, so why continue to worry about the timing?

We could have traded in the MY last summer for $40k. We have two cars and have been working from home, so 1 car would work for us too.

Now, I am in the similar situation: I could trade in the car for $22k to Carmax and not take the MY. Then, waiting for a couple of months for further price cuts (at least they put back parking sensors) to buy a new one. Who knows what price my M3 will be after a couple of months.

 

[bbqc]

Until you sign on the dotted line and pass your $ over you're not obligated to anything. Tesla is not the boss of you.

Thanks. This is the first VIN that I was assigned. If I cancel this delivery, will they kick me to the back of the line and assign a second VIN later or simply cancel my order?

 

[Ogre]

I don’t consider a Tesla car as investment, but when something depreciates ~50% over a period of merely 5 months, one may naturally have a second thought about putting more money on it.

You are comparing a bubble price to a post bubble price. During the 18 months prior to that, your car was almost certainly growing in “value” even as you were putting miles and time on it. You’ve got to realize that this isn’t a matter of the car suddenly plunging in value from a normal baseline. This is the value reverting to norm from elevated highs.

It has probably over-corrected and may well rise back up in the months ahead, but you are never going to see $40k associated with your car again. That number was ephemeral.

 

[gx9901]

How much your trade-in tanked over the past year is something I haven't seen anyone else bring up. I would say since you're technically saving only $2k, you might as well cancel and wait for either confirmation that they've achieved feature parity with USS using vision, or an updated "Highland" Model Y is forthcoming. There might even be more price cuts after March. I guess the problem is that I think the used M3 price is unlikely to improve now that used car dealers got jobbed pretty bad with the Tesla price cut, so unless you decide to just hang onto the M3, it's probably always going to weigh down whatever gains you might get by waiting for price cuts.

 

[69KWH]

The Y LR was $48,990 at its lowest point before the recent drop and it was an excellent EV at that price point. Now you can get it for $52,990 - $7500 (if you qualify) which brings the cheapest possible cost to $45,490 + taxes and fees, which is a STEAL compared to everything else out there. I don't believe that Tesla will be lowering prices any further in the future, but would love for the Y SR to make another comeback at the $39,990 price point so I can trade in my Bolt EUV for it without losing any $$$ in the process

 

[bayareaever]

Thanks. This is the first VIN that I was assigned. If I cancel this delivery, will they kick me to the back of the line and assign a second VIN later or simply cancel my order?

Based on my experience, they will cancel your order since you already had a previous hold.

 

[bbqc]

Based on my experience, they will cancel your order since you already had a previous hold.

I thought they would allow customers to decline 1 VIN. This is the first VIN I was assigned with. The question is whether declining a scheduled delivery is the same as decline the assigned VIN. These two seem the same to me, just wanted to confirm.

 

[WetzelPretzel]

Sell your M3 private party and get your MY if you need one. Plenty of people now shopping used Teslas and you should be able to get more than $20k for yours.

Just like buying a house, buy when you need one and can afford it, instead of waiting for a crash. The same people calling for a crash in 2020 are now kicking themselves for not buying when prices were cheap and rates low. What if prices for new MY’s rise and the used market doesn’t catch up immediately? You’ll kick yourself for waiting and still can’t get a higher trade in.

Personally I’m buying a new MY because at $45k after rebates it’s a great deal for the technology. Your alternatives don’t offer nearly as much features/speed and I want to have access to the supercharger network (CA).

 

[WhiteOnWhiteMY]

I thought they would allow customers to decline 1 VIN. This is the first VIN I was assigned with. The question is whether declining a scheduled delivery is the same as decline the assigned VIN. These two seem the same to me, just wanted to confirm.

Ever considered a used mid-22 MY? USS with Ryzen MCU. Only will be missing passenger lumbar and data in the center console, but should have almost everything else that comes with a 23. You might be able to get one from a local dealership that bought high and might be trying to offload these vehicles ASAP before they depreciate more with the impending recession.