Is Telsa really that much ahead?

[insaneoctane]

I've been thinking about the lead that Tesla appears to have in the EV segment, and it really does seem quite significant. I'm talking about the core tech, not even the infrastructure of the supercharger network. I mean as we watch Tesla move into the permanent magnet motor solution as a natural iteration from the AC induction, it really has me wondering how much other optimization is really going on in their labs? While other manufacturers are trying hard to figure out how to make any kind of EV, Tesla is totally optimizing theirs. I think this is key, because efficiency is far more important with EV than ICE. The limitation of energy stored in a battery vs a fuel tank mandates this. Perspective: the 100 kWh battery pack has the equivalent energy storage as LESS than 3 gallons of gas (33.7 kW/gal gasoline per EPA). If the 4,700 lbs 100D Model S were as efficient as an ICE, it would have like 50 miles of range. While Tesla has been and continues to optimize these efficiencies (motor, inverter, switches, wiring, transmission, etc), it really just seems like an amazing position for Tesla. Thoughts?

EDIT: Scary, this was my 666th message

 

[Az_Rael]

I think this is key, because efficiency is far more important with EV than ICE.

I think BMW actually has the record on efficiency with the i3, although some of the newer EVs are giving it a run for its money. Tesla is not really the top of the pack on that stat.


Edit: here is one list. Yes, the EPA could be considered a flawed test, but is certainly a consistent way to compare efficiency across various cars.
Fuel Economy

 

[strykeroz]

Not sure the raw MPGe number is enough to show the full story of efficiency as model s or x are both larger vehicles with greater payload, range etc

 

[N5329K]

I would rate efficiencies in watt/hour per mile. Looking at it through that lens, the Model 3 seems pretty far ahead of the pack (230 watt/hour per mile vs 270 for the i3). I have seen Model 3 numbers even lower.
Robin

 

[EV-lutioin]

Efficiency is certainly important, but the other side of the equation is the cost of energy storage. Tesla invested heavily in having an advantage in the price per kWh battery storage. If they can make the price per kWh of storage lower than their competitors, they can give away some advantage in efficiency. Ideally, you want both, of course. Now, if they could just get that darn Gigafactory to start pumping out some battery packs for the M3!!

 

[FlyingKiwi]

I think you are totally overestimating Teslas advantages except in battery tech and supercharger network; and its more the headstart on the build out of the supercharger network rather than any inherent tech advantage IMO.

There is a massive pool of talent and experience in building inverters from a few kW to multi MW size, they just need to be poached from companies like ABB and Allen bradley. Sure, there are some differences between mostly air cooled stationery inverters and liquid cooled units for automotive but nothing that a decent team of engineers won't cope with. Toyota and Nissan already have a pool of talent from their hybrids and EV/FC programs too.

ICE companies have been building complex multispeed transmissions for years, an EV transmission is the simplest of them all, single ratio, no clutches, torque converter, valvebodies or synchronisers etc. You've pretty much eliminated everything challenging from the transmission, you have a handful of gears and maybe 6 bearings, and a casing to hold them in place and keep the lubricant in. Their biggest worry is going to be making it as cheap and easy to manufacture and assemble as possible.

You think the ICE manufacturers are struggling to build an EV.. I don't, I think they are struggling to design/build an EV at a low enough cost that they can manufacture in scale and sell at a profit.

 

[David99]

Actually Tesla is that far ahead. They initially targeted a high end market where they have a much higher sale price. Roadster, Model S/X. They were able to put a lot of extra stuff into the car. Nissan, who is another true EV pioneer, went with the opposite approach. Priced as low as possible which means they could not make it as advanced as Tesla. More of a bare bone approach. It's not a matter of lack of technology or abilities. Nissan is perfectly capable of producing excellent cars and top quality. I honestly don't think Tesla has much of a technology advantage, they just made a few smarter choices that made them very successful. You don't get much attention for making a Leaf that doesn't excite anyone and neither breaks any new ground in any category. Tesla approached it from the top end and used quick acceleration as their main marketing tool and it worked really well. They got a lot of attention.

Building EVs isn't that hard. Many companies can build a very good quality car. Electric motors and inverters have been around for a long time and are very efficient. Tesla's drive train isn't more efficient than other manufacturers. Their batteries are excellent but it's not that other manufacturers have much worse batteries. No one else so far has chosen to add as large of a batter into an EV. Other manufacturers are actually better at building cars overall. In terms of overall quality and reliability, Tesla is not at the top.

Other manufacturers have been slow and reluctant because the market for EVs was tiny and financially insignificant. They didn't think EVs would see such a boom so quick. We Tesla owners see ICE cars as hoplssly outdated and bad. Yes they are, but fact is ICE cars are still selling in huge numbers and all manufacturers are still making a lot of money producing them. They are not in a rush to make EVs ICE cars will still sell and the transition to EVs will take many many years. Tesla has not made any profit. They are burning through cash. Elon believes in EVs and he is right and that's why is going for it. But in the mean time all the other car makers are looking at it from a profit point of view and as long as there is money in ICE cars they will make those. Yes they are all picking up the pace now making EVs. They realized the transition to EVs will come quicker than they thought a few years back. But it's not that they are not capable.

Will they fail because they can't beat Tesla's 0-60 times? Not at all. 9.99999% of csars sold are not top performance cars. They are not top technology. The vast majority of cars that normal people buy are just average cars they they can afford. You don't have to be the top to sell cars. The best selling cars all reasonably priced, mid rage, nothing fancy, definitely not tock notch tech.

 

[David99]

You think the ICE manufacturers are struggling to build an EV.. I don't, I think they are struggling to design/build an EV at a low enough cost that they can manufacture in scale and sell at a profit.

+1
So far Tesla has not made any profit. That's fine for a while but eventually that needs to happen. Other manufacturers have to make a profit so they are more careful what they invest in and when.

 

[EV-lutioin]

+1
So far Tesla has not made any profit. That's fine for a while but eventually that needs to happen. Other manufacturers have to make a profit so they are more careful what they invest in and when.

Maybe... maybe not The Amazon Era: No Profits, No Problem

 

[roblab]

Their biggest worry is going to be making it as cheap and easy to manufacture and assemble as possible.

You think the ICE manufacturers are struggling to build an EV.. I don't, I think they are struggling to design/build an EV at a low enough cost that they can manufacture in scale and sell at a profit.

...and allow their dealership network to make another profit. Lose-lose.

 

[LosAltosChuck]

OK, perhaps this is a weird take, but the EPA ratings can be considered a consumer service, to let the purchaser know just what they are committing to in terms of the energy purchase commitment they are signing up for. Since Tesla has graciously offered many of us free supercharging for life, the EPA ratings should be adjusted accordingly. Thus the MS and MX Teslas should have EPA ratings through the roof!

 

[Big Dog]

I think this is key, because efficiency is far more important with EV than ICE.

It maybe key, but methinks that the ICE manufacturers are going all-in on hybrids. So any tech advantage may not be all that valuable.

 

[EV-lutioin]

It maybe key, but methinks that the ICE manufacturers are going all-in on hybrids. So any tech advantage may not be all that valuable.

Toyota is a good example of that... lots of hybrids, no EV's

 

[Doug_G]

I think BMW actually has the record on efficiency with the i3, although some of the newer EVs are giving it a run for its money. Tesla is not really the top of the pack on that stat.

The reality is, the “efficiency” is more related to how big the car is than how good their EV technology is. The Roadster is far more “efficient” than the Model S simply because it is a lot smaller. The Model S has much more advanced hardware but it is a LOT bigger, so it requires more Wh/km.

 

[azred]

I don’t think it really matters if they are way ahead. Perception is reality.

I think comparisons of the Tesla brand to the Apple brand, as opposed to their respective products is valid. That’s Tesla’s huge advantage and one that may never be overcome. Tell me the cold logic behind paying $1000-$1300 for an iPhoneX. Of course, you can’t and it doesn’t matter that you can’t. Similar deal with Teslas, although I will admit it will take a few more years to prove it.

 

[Big Dog]

I think comparisons of the Tesla brand to the Apple brand, as opposed to their respective products is valid.

Only valid if the other manufacturers are making an all-EV. Hybrids, which most manufacturers are going into, are (possibly) in a different market segment. It will be interesting to see if the other manufacturers make anything other than compliance electric cars.

In contract, the iPhone has several other high quality competitors with similar features.

 

[FlyingKiwi]

The reality is, the “efficiency” is more related to how big the car is than how good their EV technology is. The Roadster is far more “efficient” than the Model S simply because it is a lot smaller. The Model S has much more advanced hardware but it is a LOT bigger, so it requires more Wh/km.

Bingo.. Compare the Nissan leaf to the e-nv200 van. A Real-World Year-Round Range Comparison Of Nissan LEAF vs e-NV200

 

[KJD]

When you only compare Tesla to other EV's then yes they are way ahead.

How about when you compare Tesla to the entire market, well they have a ways to go on market share. This will not change this overnight, it will take some time.

October 2017 YTD U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings – Top 302 Best-Selling Vehicles In America – Every Vehicle Ranked

 

[BigMskiman]

Way ahead simply due to range I think (efficiency & battery capacity factors). We have ~300mi range available in all 3 models, so who's close? Model 3 is slamming it on range, I want one.
Agree with @LosAltosChuck , the free charging for life will last forever

 

[ElecFan]

Is Tesla ahead at present? The model 3 is.
If you want an EV with 200+ miles range at a <€50k price there is simply no alternative. The Bolt? I wouldn't dream of buying one with no navigation, no frunk, no style, no nothing at ~€55k.
None of the 2018 models I've seen, are a real alternative, except for Nissan Leaf LR and Hyundai Ioniq LR and we'll have to see how they match up against model 3.

Yes Tesla is far ahead on other EV's. Especially the Model 3 is. And since the ice cars are dionosaurs who are dying after the Tesla/M3 meteorite hit the earth, I don't see any big change for the years ahead. In fact: the coming decade will probably be dominated by Tesla unless the legacy car manufacturers change their strategy. I sincerely hope they do, because the transition to more sustainable transport/energy usage will greatly benefit.

For me, this is the biggest contribution of Elon Musk's daring project: waking up the legacy car manufacturers and making them take steps they should've taken decades ago but have been unwilling to take. They can't continue (ab)using their power but need to change their ways fundamentally. I can't wait to see this take effect.