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IMHO, there's an early-adopter echo-chamber effect pervading this and similar threads. I would summarize it as: "that guy who reported a negative experience with a Tesla is an idiot", with the common variation of, "that guy's a malicious evil-doer with a hidden agenda to give my car bad publicity and/or he's working hand-in-hand with the shorts!" Sheesh. One takes one's metaphorical life in one's hands to express the least bit of negativity on TMC.
I read the article; the guy seemed reasonable. Too bad for us that he blew it.
An underlying truth is that the current product is new in significant ways and today is largely driven by an early-adopter customer base willing to tolerate the bad along with the fantastic. To expand to the masses, the product will have to change somewhat. The frequent protestation that, "I do not have range anxiety and neither should you", is an important clue that there is, in fact, a real issue. Range anxiety boils down to charging-time anxiety. 10 minutes empty-to-full at a gas station, which are littered about the landscape, versus a mere 2 days empty-to-full on the even more widespread 110VAC plugs. Oh, wait, only a dozen hours empty-to-full on certain kinds of chargers. Or only 6-8 hours. Or there are 100 places in the entire continent of North America where you can charge empty-to-full in an hour, unless of course, the charging slots are full and you have to wait 30-60 minutes to even get into a slot. If one can't get back to one's house to charge overnight, there are many decent alternatives, but they ALL are a lot more anxiety-inducing for the average driver compared to finding a gas station.
For nearly all drivers, most of whom never read a manual, never bothered to understand the capacity of their gas tank, never stopped to consider wind resistance squaring in proportion to velocity, and so on, a perfectly reasonable driving algorithm has been:
+ Look at the estimated remaining mileage, if your car has that feature. Now, ignore it, because on a lot of cars it's pretty flaky, because forecasting is hard
+ Look at the gas gauge, because it lies less than the remaining-mileage estimate, because measuring what's left in the tank isn't easy but is still generally easier than forecasting
+ Full? Half-full? Third-full? Go.
+ Quarter-full; eighth full; warning light on? Think about finding a gas station; really start looking for a gas station; slow down and limp to a gas station NOW.
This algorithm works well for new cars, older cars, light trucks, borrowed cars, occasionally-driven spousal cars... and rental cars.
It does NOT work well for an EV with relatively limited range -- that's Tesla, with sorta-kinda 250 mile range(*), compared to the typical ICE with a 300-400 mile tank -- and with a very high charge-time penalty if you haven't planned well enough to wind up back home or at a known charger with a planned-for amount of time to spend there. (Yes, I realize there are plenty of people on TMC who plan well, who get way better than rated range, who are generally superior in every way to the average driver.)
Tesla is doing all kinds of good things to bridge this gap. Superchargers, for example. But no one should kid themselves that future Model E customers are going to spend hours reading TMC threads, or go to EV classes, etc. At least, not if one wants to sell a TON of Model Es! Battery capacity (range) has to go up; charge time has to come down; and Tesla has to figure out ways to help ordinary drivers avoid falling into the ran-out-of-juice trap. (I like the "charging circles" concept outlined in another post on this thread.) If anything, I'd look at this author's article as a god-given gift of feedback about a likely future Tesla driving scenario.
Let's give ordinary people -- and writers -- a break. They are nearly all not malicious; not idiots; not out to sabotage Tesla products or -- gasp! -- short the stock.(**)
Thanks for listening.
Alan
P.S. Given this audience, please note before pillorying me that I adore my P85+ in a way I've never before admired any other car that I've owned, and I am blown away by how this company has re-thought product, sales and service! 13K miles... and I've never once ran out of juice.
(*)I am grateful beyond measure to have a 250-mile EV compared to suffering with a Leaf or Volt or one of the other truly pathetic capacity options! After driving my baby for 9 months, I'm thinking that the sweet spot is somewhere around 400 miles capacity, maybe 500. We're getting close!
(**)Oh, yes, there ARE some exceptions. :-(
I read the article; the guy seemed reasonable. Too bad for us that he blew it.
An underlying truth is that the current product is new in significant ways and today is largely driven by an early-adopter customer base willing to tolerate the bad along with the fantastic. To expand to the masses, the product will have to change somewhat. The frequent protestation that, "I do not have range anxiety and neither should you", is an important clue that there is, in fact, a real issue. Range anxiety boils down to charging-time anxiety. 10 minutes empty-to-full at a gas station, which are littered about the landscape, versus a mere 2 days empty-to-full on the even more widespread 110VAC plugs. Oh, wait, only a dozen hours empty-to-full on certain kinds of chargers. Or only 6-8 hours. Or there are 100 places in the entire continent of North America where you can charge empty-to-full in an hour, unless of course, the charging slots are full and you have to wait 30-60 minutes to even get into a slot. If one can't get back to one's house to charge overnight, there are many decent alternatives, but they ALL are a lot more anxiety-inducing for the average driver compared to finding a gas station.
For nearly all drivers, most of whom never read a manual, never bothered to understand the capacity of their gas tank, never stopped to consider wind resistance squaring in proportion to velocity, and so on, a perfectly reasonable driving algorithm has been:
+ Look at the estimated remaining mileage, if your car has that feature. Now, ignore it, because on a lot of cars it's pretty flaky, because forecasting is hard
+ Look at the gas gauge, because it lies less than the remaining-mileage estimate, because measuring what's left in the tank isn't easy but is still generally easier than forecasting
+ Full? Half-full? Third-full? Go.
+ Quarter-full; eighth full; warning light on? Think about finding a gas station; really start looking for a gas station; slow down and limp to a gas station NOW.
This algorithm works well for new cars, older cars, light trucks, borrowed cars, occasionally-driven spousal cars... and rental cars.
It does NOT work well for an EV with relatively limited range -- that's Tesla, with sorta-kinda 250 mile range(*), compared to the typical ICE with a 300-400 mile tank -- and with a very high charge-time penalty if you haven't planned well enough to wind up back home or at a known charger with a planned-for amount of time to spend there. (Yes, I realize there are plenty of people on TMC who plan well, who get way better than rated range, who are generally superior in every way to the average driver.)
Tesla is doing all kinds of good things to bridge this gap. Superchargers, for example. But no one should kid themselves that future Model E customers are going to spend hours reading TMC threads, or go to EV classes, etc. At least, not if one wants to sell a TON of Model Es! Battery capacity (range) has to go up; charge time has to come down; and Tesla has to figure out ways to help ordinary drivers avoid falling into the ran-out-of-juice trap. (I like the "charging circles" concept outlined in another post on this thread.) If anything, I'd look at this author's article as a god-given gift of feedback about a likely future Tesla driving scenario.
Let's give ordinary people -- and writers -- a break. They are nearly all not malicious; not idiots; not out to sabotage Tesla products or -- gasp! -- short the stock.(**)
Thanks for listening.
Alan
P.S. Given this audience, please note before pillorying me that I adore my P85+ in a way I've never before admired any other car that I've owned, and I am blown away by how this company has re-thought product, sales and service! 13K miles... and I've never once ran out of juice.
(*)I am grateful beyond measure to have a 250-mile EV compared to suffering with a Leaf or Volt or one of the other truly pathetic capacity options! After driving my baby for 9 months, I'm thinking that the sweet spot is somewhere around 400 miles capacity, maybe 500. We're getting close!
(**)Oh, yes, there ARE some exceptions. :-(
Well said Alan.
Unlike Broder, I don't think this guy set out to run out of juice on the side of the road. As a reporter though, I expect some professional interest in the topic one is writing a story about. Simply renting a car and going on a joy ride and writing about it is something any blogger can do.
Everything you said is spot on though. Things are not perfect and Tesla can always find ways to improve the software and make not thinking less of a penalty. Dozens of people run out of gas with 150,000 gas stations in US so the goal shouldn't be perfection rather give reasonable people as reliable data as possible and let them make a judgement call.
Unlike Broder, I don't think this guy set out to run out of juice on the side of the road. As a reporter though, I expect some professional interest in the topic one is writing a story about. Simply renting a car and going on a joy ride and writing about it is something any blogger can do.
Everything you said is spot on though. Things are not perfect and Tesla can always find ways to improve the software and make not thinking less of a penalty. Dozens of people run out of gas with 150,000 gas stations in US so the goal shouldn't be perfection rather give reasonable people as reliable data as possible and let them make a judgement call.
Oh, I think your expectation is eminently reasonable. Sadly, current journalism trends don't match our shared expectation. The democratization of information flow (aka rise of the Internet) correlates with and I'd claim is a strong cause of a rapid and large decline in the quality of journalism. Worse, readers' expectations have declined as well. Imagine choosing GM as your exemplar of EV wisdom for quotes in your article!
Thank you for your kind words.
Alan
Given that the car running out of juice caused Hertz some overhead and inconvenience, it's possible they could give tesla permission to check the logs. Although it seems this reporter did not have an agenda, renting a car to do a spontaneous review was a convenient way to avoid any contradiction in his version of events. That being said, all feedback here seems to indicate his version of events does seem plausible, though clearly an exercise in idiot testing the car.
There are some excellent points and ideas in this thread but I think that this highlights that as a minimum, showing the estimated range next to or instead of the rated range would be a VERY easy and ultimately very useful tweak. Not sure what distance it would average to, possibly defaulting to 25 but adjustable via the energy app. The only reason I can see not to do this is because people will start quoting these - more realistic numbers in articles and threads etc. leading to a more negative perception of Tesla range.
Duckjybe
Member
Problem with this is the same as the problem with supercharger circles on the supercharger map - the radius of the circle does not equal the distance the road travels!
"Clues from navigation" are absolutely critical for estimating range on any route that's not flat. My Nissan LEAF's GOM (Guess 'O Meter) has often displayed "120 miles" of range after the 4900' descent from the mountain we live on. Needless to say, only a very small number of drivers have ever eked 120+ miles out of a LEAF. On the other hand, after some uphill driving, the GOM is overly pessimistic.
Absent route information, I think range estimates or rolling averages are of little value. From my experience, it's a lot less confusing to simply show rated miles, the amount of remaining energy, or something like that. It does seem sensible to display anticipated range for the current route alongside the rated range.
No system will ever be 100% accurate, but "interactive circles" that shrink as you drive and grow as you charge should help owners visualize their range - but yes - ascending a long steep incline (say) will shrink the circles faster which could be unexpected for new drivers. But hopefully the lower speed/wider circle will point them to the "obvious" solution - reduce speed to extend range.
Or turning on the heater to maintain a certain cabin temperature in winter would cause a sudden reduction to the range circle diameters. So an alert chime could sound and a pop-up message could appear: "Tap YES to swap from cabin heater to seat heaters (increases range compared to fan heater)"
These sorts of Interactive messages / tool tips / pop-ups could be used to educate drivers as they use the car. Obviously there is the important issue of driver distraction so these messages would need to be limited to "things the driver does without realizing they have a big effect on range". (Should these sorts of messages appear on the dash rather than on the touchscreen? Or both?)
And there would be a settings option to turn these notifications on/off. Or for sales to rental companies, loaners or Press cars, Tesla could remove this option to force these messages to remain on :wink:
@ dsm363 a TMC Connect project would be great
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Alan, good post. I agree.... and had posted similar sentiments previously.
I think a pragmatic approach to the issues that regular drivers will face and a measured response to valid experiences will do much to advance the capability for all of us.
I think a pragmatic approach to the issues that regular drivers will face and a measured response to valid experiences will do much to advance the capability for all of us.
jchag
Member
Very well stated Pollux. I've read many articles on the sight that give thanks to Tesla for the good service they receive while having the second motor replaced! If someone had 1/4 the problems in an ICE car they would blow up. I too felt the article was fair. No everyone is going to get educated for almost a year before they can finally afford/buy a Tesla, (hopefully get mine end of 2014).
So in your mind, if one doesn't read the instructions/directions for a table saw, and off goes a finger, it's the saw's fault?
Well, on the other hand, 99% of those 400ish comments below the article are ripping him a new one, so he got 2 for 1: now he has a second lesson learned from his EV driving experience.
jchag
Member
I just re-read the article and could not find the part where the author of the story blames Tesla for the empty batteries. Read it again and quit trying to be an apologist for Tesla. It's new technology, and their will be a learning curve. I still don't see why everyone is upset about the article. Seems fair.
If one is too stupid to learn how to operate a device they are unfamiliar with prior to use, whether it be a Tesla or anything else, they will be called out. Sometimes one has to take responsibility for an f-up, and not try to find blame elsewhere. How is putting blame where it needs to be put, being an apologist for Tesla?
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Have you ever used Microsoft MapPoint / Microsoft Streets and Trips? or was it National Geographic Trip Planner?
One of those had a feature that would show you a range in miles traveled not a dumb circle. I think they called it a spider map because it often gave outlines that resembled a spiderweb.
Essentially as a programmer you can go for one of
1. dumb range circles
2. some inbetween mode with smoothed spider map where only the major roads define the protrusions in the rounded shape.
3. Super detailed spider map style
I suppose if you can generate type 3 you could put a slider in the UI giving the user control over how circular/spiderwebish the range maps would be.
And now maps tend to have elevation data so the range could be adjusted more accurately than just the permutations of 2D roads that were used in old CD rom based mapping software.
"Putting blame where it needs to be put." In your opinion. It doesn't appear, however, to be the case that anybody here, including you or I",is the sole arbiter of who should rightly receive blame.
So, as a few of us are trying to point out, driving a car like a Tesla is not an entirely "unfamilar" device. And the words "range = XXX miles" are pretty plain English. We are talking nuances, not alien spacecraft. I'll admit to not being familiar with every single feature of a new device before using it, particularly if the apparent implmentation of a feature is one well known in the same paradigm.
Thus, as 100's of thousands or even millions of folks will be exposed to Teslas in the next decade, it's in Tesla's best interests to set expectations as realistically as possible.
You might wish, as do I, that everybody would read the manual for the car cover-to-cover and then come here to fill in the gaps. However, they won't. So what's the best method of removing barrier to entry: clarifying car behavior/instrumentation, or sitting back an blaming the person who foolishly expected to drive 209 miles when the car said they could drive 247?
The author wasn't perfect. Neither is the Model S. I'd bet if we take a poll and ask how many folks reach the rated (much less ideal) miles a a majority of the time, there would be a significant percentage who do not. I ask: If the range estimate is inaccurate a significant majority of the time, why not consider an alternate display?
I certainly hope that being circumspect about how Tesla can continue to improve doesn't mean we need to start determining who's an "apologist" for whom... or that we need to devolve to calling folks "stupid"...
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I made the trip from Barstow to Kingman just a week ago. There is a serious uphill climb coming into Kingman. In the California desert there can be a lot of wind. This stretch of road has an exit about every 50 miles. You could stop in Needles and find an RV park but that is it. I think Needles is about 50-60 miles from Kingman. At Needles, the driver may not realize they have a range problem. 30 miles from Kingman I had 50 miles of rated range. 10 miles from Kingman I had 20 miles of rated range. I arrived at the supercharger with 0 miles of range doing 40 mph. I thought we were fine and the last section of road just sucked up the range. We made it, but the guy in the art store next door said he has seen a number of Teslas arriving on a flat bed. In this case I think you have to give the journalist the benefit of the doubt.
Displaying estimated range instead of rated range would be more fool-proof, i.e. avoid situations like this journalist, on the other hand, that can also lead to bad press. Just think about it: journalist tries out Tesla, floors the pedal to test out the famous acceleration, drives around like a madman for a few dozen miles and suddenly sees the remaining range drop to double digit miles => reports the Tesla has no more range than the Nissan Leaf, bummer! Point is: there is way to get bad publicity no matter what TM does...
