June 23 UK Car Sales

[GeorgeSymonds]

One nearby place charges 69p a kwh, that’s near 20p a mile, that’s not going to tempt many to change.

There are also a lot of terraced houses in the country with no easy charging, certainly no home charging. And I’m not talking about just big cities. I’ve lived in a few towns in my time and they’ve all had that situation in at least a chunk of their housing stock. It’s only really houses built from the 50’s that had driveways, or big older houses. Whether that’s 20% or 40% or 60% of housing, I couldn’t say, but I’d say it wasn’t negligible. And irrespective of the price to charge, who wants to charge away from home all the time?

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a mix as we transition and the transition will take 5-10 years from when we sell the last new ICE, and we’re a good few years from selling the last new ICE

 

[Jason71]

but the thing is that I see new sites popping all over the place.

the only thing is i struggle to understand, why each and every bloody petrol garage does not have at least 50KW charger placed near the pump/water station. it is simple and easy with space..

because they cost £50K-£100K to install assuming you can get the power at all and the pay back time is forever. Who wants to go to a location with a single 50kwh charger these days in case it is in use or broken?
Most charger networks are funded by venture capitol and make an operating loss right now.

 

[Jason71]

How is that different from a non-structural battery?

Non structural battery packs can be opened up and potentially individual modules or even cells could be replaced and the pack repaired. Down the line specialist garages are likely to offer this service, people have actually been doing it on Leafs and Tesla Model S for years. Tesla often fit "refurbished" batteries as warrenty replacements so presumably they do it as well. but the Tesla structural packs cannot be opened without destroying them so even Tesla would not be able to fix them if they wanted to. The whole thing would have to be replaced and the old one ground up and recycled.

 

[yessuz]

One nearby place charges 69p a kwh, that’s near 20p a mile, that’s not going to tempt many to change.

There are also a lot of terraced houses in the country with no easy charging, certainly no home charging. And I’m not talking about just big cities. I’ve lived in a few towns in my time and they’ve all had that situation in at least a chunk of their housing stock. It’s only really houses built from the 50’s that had driveways, or big older houses. Whether that’s 20% or 40% or 60% of housing, I couldn’t say, but I’d say it wasn’t negligible. And irrespective of the price to charge, who wants to charge away from home all the time?

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a mix as we transition and the transition will take 5-10 years from when we sell the last new ICE, and we’re a good few years from selling the last new ICE

0.69p a kwh (or actually 16p/mile, because, you know, 4 miles per kwh, is on par with average ~45 mpg petrol/diesel

on top of that ~66% of UK households have a drive...

 

[yessuz]

because they cost £50K-£100K to install assuming you can get the power at all and the pay back time is forever. Who wants to go to a location with a single 50kwh charger these days in case it is in use or broken?
Most charger networks are funded by venture capitol and make an operating loss right now.

where did you get that figure from?! all I can find is actually ~25k.

The point is - petrol station already has required power connection. and it might be owned by same brand. (it is actually quite often to see a rapid/fast charger owned by Shell at the Shell petrol station. it just has to be more common.

And then, there is this:

in NL it is very common to have a DC at least 50 kw next to the pumps.

 

[stonecoldrmw]

only 4? i am currently, if I trust we buy any car valuations, 8k off

Jesus That's mental. What's your spec? I'm sitting on a 2020 M3P, Fremont made with just shy of 45k miles on it. Had it valued by a number of parties about 2-3 months ago. one dealer was willing to stretch to the £29k my current settlement figure is, but that was only because i was going to be taking one of their cars. Everywhere else would have been £24-25k leaving me with a massive deficit.

 

[stonecoldrmw]

T

but the thing is that I see new sites popping all over the place.

the only thing is i struggle to understand, why each and every bloody petrol garage does not have at least 50KW charger placed near the pump/water station. it is simple and easy with space..

This is one of my big bug bears. You have slots and spaces for the pumps. You have space for the air/water supply. It's not hard, there is ample space for a small charger capable of blasting out 50kw.

 

[FastLaneJB]

I still think that folk buying a new ICE today, and planning to keep it 3+years, will be in for a rude awakening when they come to try to sell it ...

Most people finance with a PCP so there's a minimum value at end of contract that if it's below they can just hand it back. Having said that, I think ICE vehicles will maintain their value reasonably well for a while yet, there's still a lot of people that do not want an EV.

 

[yessuz]

Jesus That's mental. What's your spec? I'm sitting on a 2020 M3P, Fremont made with just shy of 45k miles on it. Had it valued by a number of parties about 2-3 months ago. one dealer was willing to stretch to the £29k my current settlement figure is, but that was only because i was going to be taking one of their cars. Everywhere else would have been £24-25k leaving me with a massive deficit.

mine is 2022 MIC LR with 30k miles.

it was valued by WBAC at 30k I think (or maybe 32k)

I bought it with Tesla loan over 6 years and my remaining balance is 38 or 37 at the moment

but I do not care about this as I planned to keep it until it is fully paid off. and it WILL have more than 0 of value anyway

 

[qwickshot]

Targeting wealthy people in their expensive SUVs would only lead to a tiny increase in EV sales. Wealthy people can afford to absorb penalties.

Given that petrol/diesel prices have come down massively while electricity prices have gone through the roof, and given that EVs are still significantly more expensive than their ICE equivalents, it’s not surprising that few “ordinary” people want to make the switch. Also, people who are unable to charge at home will largely, but not exclusively, be from lower socioeconomic classes who can’t afford an expensive EV. And then there’s the fact that, outside of Tesla, the public charging infrastructure is generally very expensive and woefully inadequate.

Buying an EV and running an EV has to be as cheap and convenient as buying and running an ICE before there will be mass uptake. And that still seems a long way away.

When did people with more challenging social economic circumstances start buying/leasing/PCPing brand new cars? More people buying BEV now means there will be more in the used market in 5-8 years time.

The reason I say to start at the high end is because it sets a clear direction of travel and sends a very clear message. Buy a cleaner vehicle or pay up.

At the end of the day, the vast majority of these high end cars are bought by wealthy people who have driveways and can charge at home. If they want to continue to buy the most polluting vehicles, they should be hit with punitive taxes, particularly because alternatives to exist and have for awhile now.

how can you draw distinction between ICE corsa and BEV corsa in these numbers?
Or mini?
you have like 40% uplift in BEV registrations.

for 1st half you got 31k BEVs registered, of which Model Y is 19k. this presumes that there is quite substantial portion new Mini and Corsa registrations as BEV. not ll, but probably 10-20% of all these cars, are EVs

I’m not looking at any specific models. My comments are driven by the overall market share for the year to date.

Car Registrations

SMMT is the country’s primary source of data on the motor industry. Click here for the SMMT car registrations data published monthly

www.smmt.co.uk

At this point in 2022 BEVs had a 14.4% share of new car registrations. In 2023 it’s 16.1%, back in 2021 it was 8.1%.

The pace of EV adoption is actually slowing down, that’s why those numbers are disappointing.

If the pace was maintained, BEV should be making up over 22% of the market share not 16%. It should be accelerating.

The numbers are poor and it should have the government and U.K. citizens concerned.

The point about tax is that come 2025, VED (‘road tax’) will be the same for BEV and ICE. How does that make sense if you want to phase ICE/hybrid out by 3030 and then PHEV by 2035?

 

[yessuz]

When did people with more challenging social economic circumstances start buying/leasing/PCPing brand new cars? More people buying BEV now means there will be more in the used market in 5-8 years time.

The reason I say to start at the high end is because it sets a clear direction of travel and sends a very clear message. Buy a cleaner vehicle or pay up.

At the end of the day, the vast majority of these high end cars are bought by wealthy people who have driveways and can charge at home. If they want to continue to buy the most polluting vehicles, they should be hit with punitive taxes, particularly because alternatives to exist and have for awhile now.



I’m not looking at any specific models. My comments are driven by the overall market share for the year to date.

Car Registrations

SMMT is the country’s primary source of data on the motor industry. Click here for the SMMT car registrations data published monthly

www.smmt.co.uk

At this point in 2022 BEVs had a 14.4% share of new car registrations. In 2023 it’s 16.1%, back in 2021 it was 8.1%.

The pace of EV adoption is actually slowing down, that’s why those numbers are disappointing.

If the pace was maintained, BEV should be making up over 22% of the market share not 16%. It should be accelerating.

The numbers are poor and it should have the government and U.K. citizens concerned.

The point about tax is that come 2025, VED (‘road tax’) will be the same for BEV and ICE. How does that make sense if you want to phase ICE/hybrid out by 3030 and then PHEV by 2035?

BEV market share increased from 14% to 16%

you see petrol and diesel dropping as well.

it looks not that bad imho.

 

[yessuz]

The point about tax is that come 2025, VED (‘road tax’) will be the same for BEV and ICE. How does that make sense if you want to phase ICE/hybrid out by 3030 and then PHEV by 2035?

because the tax is actually applicable for all types of cars.

there could be other tax incentives (i.e. VAT free charging)

 

[qwickshot]

BEV market share increased from 14% to 16%

you see petrol and diesel dropping as well.

it looks not that bad imho.

As I pointed out in 2022 it grew its share by 6.3%, in 2023 it grew its share by 1.7%.

The rate of growth has dropped by over 70%. It’s bad, really quite bad.

If U.K. BEV adoption was listed on the stock exchange, its share price would be in free fall right now based on those very weak numbers.

because the tax is actually applicable for all types of cars.

there could be other tax incentives (i.e. VAT free charging)

VED has long standing track record of having a substantial behavioural impact.

Why spend a load of cash on providing incentives to people who probably don’t need it when you can raise a load of cash through disincentivising the thing you don’t want?

 

[yessuz]

As I pointed out in 2022 it grew its share by 6.3%, in 2023 it grew its share by 1.7%.

The rate of growth has dropped by over 70%. It’s bad, really quite bad.

If U.K. BEV adoption was listed on the stock exchange, its share price would be in free fall right now based on those very weak numbers.



VED has long standing track record of having a substantial behavioural impact.

Why spend a load of cash on providing incentives to people who probably don’t need it when you can raise a load of cash through disincentivising the thing you don’t want?

2021 and 2022 were outliers, as there was a lot of delayed deliveries for all due to chip shortage. only Tesla was shipping. so overall, you saw massive BEV % jump and less others.

but I agree - it does not show it in the right light

 

[MrT3]

Down the line specialist garages are likely to offer this service, people have actually been doing it on Leafs and Tesla Model S for years.

Non structural M3/MY batteries are a different level of complexity compared to a Leaf or MS. There may be some specialists in the future that offer refurb units but taking out a couple of failed cells within the middle of a battery pack isn't really an option.