Just sold my gas guzzling car | Ready to move towards a better future!

[Half Dollar Bill]

And you are guaranteed not to spend a dime for repairs for 4 years.

Well, that's not entirely true. At 25k miles per year that will only be a two year period. You can tack the extended warranty onto that for another couple thousand and get to the 4 year period.
The new Tesla costs an ADDITIONAL $24k, not $24k. It's possible that additional amount prices him out of a new vehicle, which is why he's looking at CPO.
There's also a $2,500 rebate on new electric vehicle purchases in CA. in addition to the $7,500 fed credit.

 

[comanchepilot]

Well, that's not entirely true. At 25k miles per year that will only be a two year period. You can tack the extended warranty onto that for another couple thousand and get to the 4 year period.
The new Tesla costs an ADDITIONAL $24k, not $24k. It's possible that additional amount prices him out of a new vehicle, which is why he's looking at CPO.
There's also a $2,500 rebate on new electric vehicle purchases in CA. in addition to the $7,500 fed credit.

No one living in Malibu qualifies for the $2500 Calif rebate. If they do, they can't finance the car.

Next, you have to choose between the rebate and carpool lane access. If you live in Malibu you prob don't work in Malibu - thus - that carpool lane access is more meaningful than $2500.

And yes, of course its $25k more - that goes without saying.

Who drives 25,000 miles a year? That's a fanciful strawman. If you drove 25,000 miles on LA freeways or PCH you'd spend 12 hours a day on the road. At least.

And you're from Virginia, what do you know about driving in SoCal? you came to disneyland once?

 

[bonnie]

Next, you have to choose between the rebate and carpool lane access. If you live in Malibu you prob don't work in Malibu - thus - that carpool lane access is more meaningful than $2500.

Is having to choose something new? To the best of my knowledge, the rebate and HOV access are two separate things and administered by two different groups.

And you're from Virginia, what do you know about driving in SoCal? you came to disneyland once?

People move.

 

[Half Dollar Bill]

Who drives 25,000 miles a year? That's a fanciful strawman. If you drove 25,000 miles on LA freeways or PCH you'd spend 12 hours a day on the road. At least.

And you're from Virginia, what do you know about driving in SoCal? you came to disneyland once?

We WERE a religious 14-15k mile per year family UNTIL getting the MS. Now I'm over 25k/year. Granted, 20-30k of that is road trips and fun drives that we wouldn't have taken in an ICE.
And it was Disney World, not Land. Though on our 9,000 trip we were privileged to sit in LA traffic FOREVER trying to get to Hawthorne to charge and see the supercharger stat board that seems to have a Schrödinger's Cat existence there. Hands down, though, Mt. Shasta has the best supercharger view of 'em all. That alone would make me want to relocate, if I ever was so inclined @bonnie.

 

[davecolene0606]

Hi Hank! Quite possibly it could be the DU. I do know that on the first car I had posted, a new battery was placed and has 45k out of the 84k on there! Thank you for all of the data!



Interesting. Right now all of the CPO’s are pretty expensive, but do you suggest checking everyday to see if an 85 is posted for my price range? Also, regarding the 19inch wheels, because I drive a ton you reccomend going with these instead of the larger ones? Maybe if I bought a Tesla with the larger ones I could trade them on the forums for smaller 19inch? What are the chances of someone doing that? I know the larger ones were more expensive anyways up front!



Very interesting stuff. Can you reccomend any good specialists that I could speak to when it comes to installing in my local area (Santa Monica)?



Great advice! Thank you for this. I will get the car first then look into installation!

Hey Chris, yup check the CPO list everyday as it changes that often. Best of luck!

 

[SoCalNick]

I'm not sure I agree with the math on the new car...

Here's a guy who drives a LOT. The real argument of cost is what is the car worth after Chris drives it for 4 years and puts on 100,000 miles.

If he buys a 3 year old car for $45K it will probably depreciate 25K in those four years.
If he buys a new car for $85K, it's gonna depreciate 45K in those four years.
Sure he's going to get a $10K tax incentive on the new car, but it will still cost more to get the new car.
Insurance is going to be slightly more, taxes are going to be slightly more, registration slightly more.

The new car will cost more.
He gets the unlimited powertrain warranty either way.
The only risk on the used car is non-powertrain stuff (like the screen) going out.

??

 

[comanchepilot]

Is having to choose something new? To the best of my knowledge, the rebate and HOV access are two separate things and administered by two different groups.



People move.

Law passed and signed by Moonbeam October 10, 2017.

So before you assume someone is wrong . . . keep up!

 

[comanchepilot]

I'm not sure I agree with the math on the new car...

Here's a guy who drives a LOT. The real argument of cost is what is the car worth after Chris drives it for 4 years and puts on 100,000 miles.

If he buys a 3 year old car for $45K it will probably depreciate 25K in those four years.
If he buys a new car for $85K, it's gonna depreciate 45K in those four years.
Sure he's going to get a $10K tax incentive on the new car, but it will still cost more to get the new car.
Insurance is going to be slightly more, taxes are going to be slightly more, registration slightly more.

The new car will cost more.
He gets the unlimited powertrain warranty either way.
The only risk on the used car is non-powertrain stuff (like the screen) going out.

??

Tesla has an unlimited power train warranty?

What about the batteries? There are known problems in early batteries - that is a risk.

You can disagree with the math - but as I said no one in California who does not drive for a living drives 25k miles a year - and maintains their sanity. And you are not driving a Tesla for Uber.

Can you provide me some numbers please?

Personally, after 4 years a 75D with the options avaialble now plus EAP will likely have a value of somewhere around $50k fmv. Not TMV.

A 60S after 8 years, with no warranty will likely have a resale somewhere close to $20k. There is your $24k increased cost returned to you - right there.

show me some numbers to back up your opinion. You take a short range Tesla, with a few known quirks, bought in 2017 4 years old for $55k. In 4 years it will be worth about 45% of acquisition cost if Tesla depreciates like most luxury cars,. which puts the $55k number right at $24,750, vs. $50-55000 or so for the 4 year old vehicle. You recover 100% of what you pay for the new car and have a zero risk profile the entire period of ownership.

If you can afford $61k you can afford $85k for a car. . . . its a no brainer decsion.

Remember- Tesla has MBA's running these numbers - they can do the same math as I and they are driving the CPO buyer toward a new vehicle with those numbers. . .

 

[incrediwoah]

if you do the math, you will likely discover that buying a new Tesla with the current AWD standard, and tons of other former options now being standard, is a much better deal than a 50k mile CPO. YMMV.

A $55k vehicle [seems low end, but I doing that intentionally] prices out [in Malibu] as follows:

1. Vehicle: $55000 -- this most likely a 60kw battery - so consider your range.
2. Tax: $5,225/
3. Registration: $750

Total: $$60,925

New 75D: $75000
EAP / Interior: $8300
Tax: $7900
Title: $900
Minus rebate: [$7500]
Total: $84,600

A NEW Tesla only costs you just under $24000. And every dime the car costs more than $55k adds 11 cents to the price and reduces the cost differential by 11 cents.

Makes ZERO sense to buy a used vehicle when you get the FULL 4 year warranty, plus the FULL 8 year battery warranty. . . .

Its $328 a month for 72 months if you finance. And you are guaranteed not to spend a dime for repairs for 4 years. . . . For $300 a month - plus at the end of 4 or 6 years, you have an asset worth far more than the $24k you spent up front in terms of used value.

An AWD 75D gonna be worth a heckuva lot more in 2021 than a 60kwh Model out of battery warranty . . .

Good argument here. I’m not one to usually finance more than 48 months (I read something about how interest outweighs the extended time you finance for).. But still an option to look into.

No one living in Malibu qualifies for the $2500 Calif rebate. If they do, they can't finance the car.

Next, you have to choose between the rebate and carpool lane access. If you live in Malibu you prob don't work in Malibu - thus - that carpool lane access is more meaningful than $2500.

And yes, of course its $25k more - that goes without saying.

Who drives 25,000 miles a year? That's a fanciful strawman. If you drove 25,000 miles on LA freeways or PCH you'd spend 12 hours a day on the road. At least.

And you're from Virginia, what do you know about driving in SoCal? you came to disneyland once?

I trip to mammoth mountain from LA almost every weekend during the snow season! That’s the majority of mileage being taken on!

Hey Chris, yup check the CPO list everyday as it changes that often. Best of luck!

Cool cool! Would you reccomend me signing up for the premium where I can have it send me an email if my preferred car comes up?

I'm not sure I agree with the math on the new car...

Here's a guy who drives a LOT. The real argument of cost is what is the car worth after Chris drives it for 4 years and puts on 100,000 miles.

If he buys a 3 year old car for $45K it will probably depreciate 25K in those four years.
If he buys a new car for $85K, it's gonna depreciate 45K in those four years.
Sure he's going to get a $10K tax incentive on the new car, but it will still cost more to get the new car.
Insurance is going to be slightly more, taxes are going to be slightly more, registration slightly more.

The new car will cost more.
He gets the unlimited powertrain warranty either way.
The only risk on the used car is non-powertrain stuff (like the screen) going out.

??

You also have a compelling argument here. Again, I plan on moving into a more expensive model X down the road. Purchasing the high mileage tesla now is for the ability to just get into the EV world and away from gas!

 

[incrediwoah]

Tesla has an unlimited power train warranty?

What about the batteries? There are known problems in early batteries - that is a risk.

You can disagree with the math - but as I said no one in California who does not drive for a living drives 25k miles a year - and maintains their sanity. And you are not driving a Tesla for Uber.

Can you provide me some numbers please?

Personally, after 4 years a 75D with the options avaialble now plus EAP will likely have a value of somewhere around $50k fmv. Not TMV.

A 60S after 8 years, with no warranty will likely have a resale somewhere close to $20k. There is your $24k increased cost returned to you - right there.

show me some numbers to back up your opinion. You take a short range Tesla, with a few known quirks, bought in 2017 4 years old for $55k. In 4 years it will be worth about 45% of acquisition cost if Tesla depreciates like most luxury cars,. which puts the $55k number right at $24,750, vs. $50-55000 or so for the 4 year old vehicle. You recover 100% of what you pay for the new car and have a zero risk profile the entire period of ownership.

If you can afford $61k you can afford $85k for a car. . . . its a no brainer decsion.

Remember- Tesla has MBA's running these numbers - they can do the same math as I and they are driving the CPO buyer toward a new vehicle with those numbers. . .

I will not be looking at 60kw batteries.. only P85 and up! Need the extra mileage for longer drives!

From what I understand it is an 8 Year / Unlimited mile battery and DU warranty. That would keep me good until 2021 only for those two items if I purchased a 2013

 

[bonnie]

Law passed and signed by Moonbeam October 10, 2017.

So before you assume someone is wrong . . . keep up!

I asked. I didn't assume. I appreciate the update. And I'll leave it at that.

 

[arcus]

From what I understand it is an 8 Year / Unlimited mile battery and DU warranty. That would keep me good until 2021 only for those two items if I purchased a 2013

Limited battery warranty applies only to 60 kWh packs:
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/New_Vehicle_Limited_Warranty_North_America_en_US.pdf (page 4)

 

[SoCalNick]

Mammoth has a supercharger.

 

[incrediwoah]

I asked. I didn't assume. I appreciate the update. And I'll leave it at that.

Oil is for sissies!

Limited battery warranty applies only to 60 kWh packs:
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/New_Vehicle_Limited_Warranty_North_America_en_US.pdf (page 4)

Read into it. You are right. Unlimited for everything except the 60. I’ll be going for an 85.

“Your vehicle’s Battery and Drive Unit are covered under this Battery and Drive Unit Limited Warranty for a period of 8 years, with the exception of the original 60 kWh battery (manufactured before 2015) that is covered for a period of 8 years or 125,000 miles/200,000 km, whichever comes rst.”

Mammoth has a supercharger.

I KNOW. So pumped!

 

[Eclectic]

You can disagree with the math - but as I said no one in California who does not drive for a living drives 25k miles a year - and maintains their sanity. And you are not driving a Tesla for Uber.

I guess the qualification of maintaining sanity is the key to your statement, but my wife drives well over 25k a year. Maybe it's a Southern California thing, but up here in Northern California there are a lot of people who live, say, in the central valley and commute into SF or Silicon Valley. That's easily a 120 mile a day round trip, which makes for a 30k+ annual tally. We live in the far eastern part of the East Bay and my wife works in SF some days, Santa Clara other days, and has meetings all over the bay area during the workday (which she drives to).

Her sanity, obviously, is the wild card here.

 

[Max*]

@comanchepilot I'm going to use your numbers here, I get what point you're trying to make, but I don't agree with it.

1. Vehicle: $55000 -- this most likely a 60kw battery - so consider your range.
2. Tax: $5,225/
3. Registration: $750

Total: $$60,925

A 60S after 8 years, with no warranty will likely have a resale somewhere close to $20k.

So a used car will cost him $40k (+ finance costs) over the life of the car.

New 75D: $75000
EAP / Interior: $8300
Tax: $7900
Title: $900
Minus rebate: [$7500]
Total: $84,600

Personally, after 4 years a 75D with the options avaialble now plus EAP will likely have a value of somewhere around $50k fmv. Not TMV.

And a new car will cost him $34k (+ finance costs) over the life of the car.

There is your $24k increased cost returned to you - right there.

Not quite.
-He listed 2 cars that were 85kwh models for $40k, not sure where you get $55k for a 60kwh battery. So that's already $15k off here.
-All the 75D has is EAP/Interior, but no premium package, and his cars have more features (for starters sunroof and UHFS). So it's not really an apples to apples comparison. You'd probably need to add $5k here to make it more equivalent.
-He'd pay about $1k-$2k more in finance costs for the new car
-You're assuming a 4 year CPO car will cost $55k, but a 4-year old 75D will cost $50k. OK, I can see where a CPO will have an extra cost of $5k. I'll give you this.

If I use your numbers, I only get a $6k delta in ownership cost.

If I use more realistic numbers (my numbers probably still aren't accurate), then the 75D costs ~$12k more to own than a CPO. Not horrible for new car depreciation.

 

[incrediwoah]

@comanchepilot I'm going to use your numbers here, I get what point you're trying to make, but I don't agree with it.



So a used car will cost him $40k (+ finance costs) over the life of the car.



And a new car will cost him $34k (+ finance costs) over the life of the car.


Not quite.
-He listed 2 cars that were 85kwh models for $40k, not sure where you get $55k for a 60kwh battery. So that's already $10k off here.
-All the 75D has is EAP/Interior, but no premium package, and his cars have more features (for starters sunroof and UHFS). So it's not really an apples to apples comparison. You'd probably need to add $5k here to make it more equivalent.
-He'd pay about $1k-$2k more in finance costs for the new car
-You're assuming a 4 year CPO car will cost $55k, but a 4-year old 75D will cost $50k. OK, I can see where a CPO will have an extra cost of $5k. I'll give you this.

If I use your numbers, I only get a $6k delta in ownership cost.

If I use more realistic numbers (my numbers probably still aren't accurate), then the 75D costs $9k more to own than a CPO. Not horrible for new car depreciation.

Gosh I love this community so much! Thank you for your input! You clarified a few of the questions I had on the math as well.

 

[comanchepilot]

@comanchepilot I'm going to use your numbers here, I get what point you're trying to make, but I don't agree with it.



So a used car will cost him $40k (+ finance costs) over the life of the car.



And a new car will cost him $34k (+ finance costs) over the life of the car.


Not quite.
-He listed 2 cars that were 85kwh models for $40k, not sure where you get $55k for a 60kwh battery. So that's already $15k off here.
-All the 75D has is EAP/Interior, but no premium package, and his cars have more features (for starters sunroof and UHFS). So it's not really an apples to apples comparison. You'd probably need to add $5k here to make it more equivalent.
-He'd pay about $1k-$2k more in finance costs for the new car
-You're assuming a 4 year CPO car will cost $55k, but a 4-year old 75D will cost $50k. OK, I can see where a CPO will have an extra cost of $5k. I'll give you this.

If I use your numbers, I only get a $6k delta in ownership cost.

If I use more realistic numbers (my numbers probably still aren't accurate), then the 75D costs ~$12k more to own than a CPO. Not horrible for new car depreciation.

Not seeing any CPO 85S vehicles for anywhere south of $50k - the least expensive S with a 85kwh battery is $50,700. . . as of a few min ago.

You are not including the $7500 federal credit in your new computation.

I realize its not common core, but lets do the math again. I'm using cash purchase -

CPO 85S presently on sale, Black on cream, 50,000 miles - $50700

tax @ 9.50% LA County: $4816.50

Registration fees: ~ $700

Total: $56,216.50

45% of value in 4 years: $22,815.

Cost of vehicle for 4 years: $33401.50

2017 Tesla Model S

Vehicle: $74500
Paint: $ 1000
Cream Interior: $ 3300
EAP: $ 5000

Total: $83,800
Tax $ 7,961
Title $ 900

Total: $92661

Min tax credit: -$7,500

Net price: $$85161

60% of net vehicle price in 4 years: $45,780.00

OR: The net sales price for a NEW car is $20,944 more for new.

Total cost of vehicle for 4 years: $39401. - $6000 more for new.

Now - lets go to the END of ownership. Selling the cars:

2017 Selling Price: $45750

2013 selling price: $22815

Net difference: $22,935 OR - after 4 years you get $1991 dollars more for the used new car.

So now you have a total net cost of new at $4009 = with zero repair risk. Its LESS than the cost of buying an extended warranty for the 2013/14 CPO at $4500.

So do you want a NEW car, with new hardware upgrades and full warranty, and autopilot, or do you want a 4 year old vehicle with 50k miles and no ability to upgrade to EAP?

Hey, thats value judgment - but its a damn simple value judgement in my mind. . . .

 

[bonnie]

Law passed and signed by Moonbeam October 10, 2017.

So before you assume someone is wrong . . . keep up!

I thought I'd do a little more research into this & found it's not quite as black & white as you portrayed. I'm sure that was not intentional.

Yes, SB 454 will require high income folks to choose one incentive or the other. But only high income, not everyone. Since incentives for higher income buyers were already in question, it's not a surprise. (I'm glad it's tied to income and not price of car, but that's probably another discussion.)

It also prescribes a time limit on HOV lane decals (they’re good until January of the fourth year after the decals are first applied for).

It makes sense to sunset the decals, because HOV lanes will become overly congested - and Caltrans would likely end up excluding all single occupant vehicles.

I wish it wasn't either/or incentives - if the Governor's goal of 1.5 million ZEVs by 2025 is to be achieved, both incentives would be good. And as a friend has pointed out to me, we cannot discount the role that high-income earners play in making ZEVs available to the secondary market.

 

[comanchepilot]

Her sanity, obviously, is the wild card here.

Tell her I'm sorry.

as for you, you're a saint. Or maybe she is!