Latest "Finalize your order" date

[NigelM]

WTH is an "S" ramp curve anyway. Does that mean they go negative in direction/production a couple of times? What about a long hockey stick instead. Just seems like an odd, if not slightly inaccurate metaphor.

Like this:

 

[grisnjam]

WTH is an "S" ramp curve anyway. Does that mean they go negative in direction/production a couple of times? What about a long hockey stick instead. Just seems like an odd, if not slightly inaccurate metaphor.

It's not really a metaphor. It is what the line graph looks like if you plot of cars built Per day against time. It starts slow, then increases quickly then tappers off as you reach the desired build rate. It is more of a stretched 'S' really.

 

[Doogue]

"time to build" email came in yesterday.

I am #3955.

(a bit worried that they are moving up the emails/customer lock-in, but not matching that with ramped production....specifically, wondering whether Tesla is trying to hedge against production delays, questions around production, negative press from production slowdown, and as a result an increase in reservation holders dropping out. Thoughts?)

 

[Trnsl8r]

"time to build" email came in yesterday.

I am #3955.

(a bit worried that they are moving up the emails/customer lock-in, but not matching that with ramped production....specifically, wondering whether Tesla is trying to hedge against production delays, questions around production, negative press from production slowdown, and as a result an increase in reservation holders dropping out. Thoughts?)

I think it's more an indication of that they're bracing for the steep part of the S (see above) and, if everything goes super smoothly, want to make sure they don't hold up the line because they're running out of configurations.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Reservation dropouts???

I think not!

I am getting really closer to thinking a bunch of people into wanting a Tesla
even the ones who make $50K/year. Gas cars suuuuuck, slurp, slurp, cough, cough

can't wait for the Mayan calendar shift and
the consciousness to change of all these F-ers

I think this paradigm shift may be pushed by Tesla and backed by the Mayans....or pushed by the 'others' and backed by tesla, hmm

 

[onlinespending]

I think it's more an indication of that they're bracing for the steep part of the S (see above) and, if everything goes super smoothly, want to make sure they don't hold up the line because they're running out of configurations.

It does however do a disservice to the reservation holders if they need to lock in options well ahead of delivery. If anything it encourages more folks to defer given how little information is out there on a lot of things and for most people, have yet to be able to test drive or see their desired configuration in person. Perhaps if they waited a bit, people would be able to make more educated decisions on what options to get. No one likes to feel rushed into making a decision when clouded by a lot of uncertainty.

 

[kenliles]

It does however do a disservice to the reservation holders if they need to lock in options well ahead of delivery. If anything it encourages more folks to defer given how little information is out there on a lot of things and for most people, have yet to be able to test drive or see their desired configuration in person. Perhaps if they waited a bit, people would be able to make more educated decisions on what options to get. No one likes to feel rushed into making a decision when clouded by a lot of uncertainty.

No.. no.. and no.... and if there's doubt,... NO!
If u feel rushed, then simply defer as allowed; Otherwise Tesla needs to line up those who are ready. No one is being rushed. No one is being forced, No reservation holder is being dis-serviced, dissed, or otherwise, 'onlinespending'

 

[Trnsl8r]

It does however do a disservice to the reservation holders if they need to lock in options well ahead of delivery. If anything it encourages more folks to defer given how little information is out there on a lot of things and for most people, have yet to be able to test drive or see their desired configuration in person. Perhaps if they waited a bit, people would be able to make more educated decisions on what options to get. No one likes to feel rushed into making a decision when clouded by a lot of uncertainty.

Well... early adopting... it's not for everyone.

 

[SCW-Greg]

Like this:
View attachment 9110

This makes sense... I was taking the shape a bit more literally.

 

[onlinespending]

No.. no.. and no.... and if there's doubt,... NO!

Hey don't get your panties in a bunch I was making the rather obvious point that I'm sure no one here would turn down the opportunity to see and test the desired car they're about to spend well over $50k on. Many of us are locking in our options on a leap of faith (however small you may contend it to be). If Tesla can minimize the time between having to lock in your options and your delivery (and that gives you a better chance to have that opportunity to see and test the desired configuration you want; if not become more enlightened from other Model S owners) then that clearly benefits the reservation holder!

 

[Jason S]

"time to build" email came in yesterday.

I am #3955.

(a bit worried that they are moving up the emails/customer lock-in, but not matching that with ramped production....specifically, wondering whether Tesla is trying to hedge against production delays, questions around production, negative press from production slowdown, and as a result an increase in reservation holders dropping out. Thoughts?)

Well, if they are going to meet 5000 by end of year then #3955 would need to be contacted at least 3 months ahead... so now is about the right time given a 10-20% deferral/dropout rate.

The elongated S is a tricky thing, but you can tell from the reservation lock-in ramp-up that Tesla is planning on that kind of thing around Sig 300 or so (most likely one of the latter Sig Special cars).

I still don't understand where people who are claiming a delay from September to November are getting their data. My original paperwork from June 9 was estimated delivery for September and it hasn't changed at all. That paperwork was 12-16 weeks ahead of the estimated delivery as well. Then again, I haven't changed my original order either, so maybe if I put in a change order my delivery date would change. *shrug*

It is still wait and see time.

 

[brianman]

If Tesla can minimize the time between having to lock in your options and your delivery ... then that clearly benefits the reservation holder!

Ok, so how 'bout this. Your reservation is moved to December 2026. Your lock-in date is November 31, 2026. Is that what you had in mind?


Be careful what you wish for.

 

[FalconNinetyD]

For another data point, I just finalized my order for P2747, and the delivery date says November/December.

P85, Blue/Black, Pano, tech package, sound studio, CF interior/spoiler, grey wheels, parcel shelf)

 

[splitsec002]

I'm #P4007 and have not gotten an email as of 1:09 AM 8/23
I was really hoping to get it this year!

They called you out of the blue just to tell you that?! How do I get a call like that? :tongue:

Seriously, we're they returning your call or something? I'd love to think they were just calling to tell you this, but I can't imagine that's what happened.

- - - Updated - - -



Our first clue will be next week when the early 4000s get their Finalize e-mails and what their projected delivery month is. I have a friend with a very low 4000+ reservation, so I'll know whether he gets his car this year or not. I also think there will be some P deferrals for Sunset Red, 40kWh pack etc. that will allow low 4000s to get their cars this year.

 

[jkirkebo]

Hey don't get your panties in a bunch I was making the rather obvious point that I'm sure no one here would turn down the opportunity to see and test the desired car they're about to spend well over $50k on.

Actually, I'm not very interested in a test drive. I trust the reviews done by others, and would rather test the car for the first time after I get it, in my own company only.

I might go and have a look at a production model if we get one here in Oslo, but it's not important to me. I live close to Oslo and didn't bother going to see the beta when it was here earlier this summer.

 

[Arnold Panz]

I still don't understand where people who are claiming a delay from September to November are getting their data. My original paperwork from June 9 was estimated delivery for September and it hasn't changed at all. That paperwork was 12-16 weeks ahead of the estimated delivery as well. Then again, I haven't changed my original order either, so maybe if I put in a change order my delivery date would change. *shrug*

It is still wait and see time.

I haven't changed my order at all, and was just moved from September to October, and I'm about 300 cars ahead of you. I had asked Tesla specifically to let me know if my estimated delivery changed from my MVPA (which said September), and they were nice enough to do so yesterday. If you write them and ask, I'm sure they would update you to October as well and possibly say "October/November". Sorry to be the bearer of bad news!

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

So I should be able to get updated to Nov/dec instead of just December?
not that it matters but I am hoping December so I can plan my super vacation accordingly

 

[contaygious]

I was told mid to late dec so you should be too!

 

[ckessel]

Well... early adopting... it's not for everyone.

First there was the EV1. We've had the Rav4EV since 1997. We had the Roadster for nearly 4 years now. Someone at P3500-4000 is near the end of the first year of the Model S.

At what point are we not early adopters?

I consistently see concerns being brushed aside under the umbrella of "that's what happens to early adopters". At which point in time will we be out of early adopter mode and it'll be reasonable to express those concerns?

 

[mnx]

"We're" still in early adopter mode IMO...

I'd say we're in early adopter mode until a few % of the cars on the road are electric and DC quick charging is all over the place...

I don't know why yourself and onlinespending are up in arms about getting contacted to finalize your order ~5 months out... (perhaps less). If you're not ready to finalize simply defer until you are ready.

First there was the EV1. We've had the Rav4EV since 1997. We had the Roadster for nearly 4 years now. Someone at P3500-4000 is near the end of the first year of the Model S.

At what point are we not early adopters?

I consistently see concerns being brushed aside under the umbrella of "that's what happens to early adopters". At which point in time will we be out of early adopter mode and it'll be reasonable to express those concerns?