Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[Newb]

If there is one thing that concerns me about the Long Term fundamentals of Tesla, it is communications and the future of the Supercharger network.

Some Model S owners are receiving letters warning them that the Superchargers are only for long-distance travel: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/51482-Supercharging-letter-from-Tesla. However, many of these owners say they don't use their local Superchargers much, if at all, and some recipients of the letter appear to have no local Superchargers at all. Meanwhile, there are several people who claim to use their local Superchargers often, but have not received a warning letter. It's idiotic at best and damaging to the brand. :cursing:

This is going to be a complete nightmare if Tesla can't get its act together for the Model 3 launch.

+1

I think Elon really needs to do something about it - either you keep it "free", expand it and increase the upfront price for supercharging (as part of the overall price of the car), or you don't keep it "free" and break with the past. But this "in-between" is a disaster. Make a decision, Mr. Musk!

I mean, if you put some limits (how would that work anyway?) on supercharging today: How will those limits ought to be changed in one year? In two years (when Model 3 is launched)? In three years? If they want to limit supercharging, then let people pay per use or double the price for it upfront - as a future Model 3 owner, I'd be willing to pay those $4,000 or something to have a real "free" supercharging experience.

 

[Runarbt]

+1

I think Elon really needs to do something about it - either you keep it "free", expand it and increase the upfront price for supercharging (as part of the overall price of the car), or you don't keep it "free" and break with the past. But this "in-between" is a disaster. Make a decision, Mr. Musk!

I mean, if you put some limits (how would that work anyway?) on supercharging today: How will those limits ought to be changed in one year? In two years (when Model 3 is launched)? In three years? If they want to limit supercharging, then let people pay per use or double the price for it upfront - as a future Model 3 owner, I'd be willing to pay those $4,000 or something to have a real "free" supercharging experience.

+1

Agree

 

[Model 3]

But this "in-between" is a disaster. Make a decision, Mr. Musk!

What is this "in-between"? It's "free" (included in the price of the car) for long distance travel for the lifetime of the car. Elon has not said anything else, and this is what is has been from the start, and probably will continue to be. Anything else is just speculation on the forums (with a little help from JB).

 

[FANGO]

Yeah, i have no idea how people find so much to grouse about. I see no issue whatsoever with the current status of supercharging.

 

[JRP3]

This is going to run into several legal hurdles at the State level because Tesla is not a utility. In some/most States only regulated utilities can re-sell electricity.

Then a SC "Hook up" fee or something added on to each charge. Tesla should be able to charge extra for using their equipment.

The person that drives 100k plus miles a year using the Superchargers 90% of the time even if away from home is also abusive.

Also a rare outlier. People using a SC as a free gas station near home will likely be a much higher number when there are 500K+ Model 3's on the road.

BTW IF you don't want to finance Supercharger use then just pay $2k more down. If you make it separate many will chose not to buy when they should and have a terrible experience and relate that terrible experience to others.

How would a pay per use model create a terrible experience?

BTW II If I had a nickle for every owner that said they didn't need Supercharger access for their needs but how great the Superchargers are to use then......

Again, pay per use allows use of the SC but prevents abuse. I'd like to use a SC occasionally but paying $2K for a service I might use a few times a year doesn't make sense to me. I doubt I'll ever have local access to one but if I did and prepaid I'd be more inclined to try and get my money's worth.

 

[austinEV]

Yeah, i have no idea how people find so much to grouse about. I see no issue whatsoever with the current status of supercharging.

Because it is unsustainable. There will be hard feelings between users honestly using SC as intended, and locals using it daily as a free gas station. "free" leads to abuse. The entire value proposition goes to hell if you try to road trip and you experience full chargers at every stop. The simplest cure for this is a modest pay-per-use which would take away the incentive to charge locally.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Because it is unsustainable. There will be hard feelings between users honestly using SC as intended, and locals using it daily as a free gas station. "free" leads to abuse. The entire value proposition goes to hell if you try to road trip and you experience full chargers at every stop. The simplest cure for this is a modest pay-per-use which would take away the incentive to charge locally.

Maybe not the simplest cure, but there is only one solution to this that fixes all problems. Make supercharging so quick that it doesn't matter how many people are using it, quick in quick out! :tongue: Might need to crank up the liquid cooling...

 

[AlMc]

Maybe not the simplest cure, but there is only one solution to this that fixes all problems. Make supercharging so quick that it doesn't matter how many people are using it, quick in quick out! :tongue: Might need to crank up the liquid cooling...

This^^ is what I see. The GF starts cranking out 'next gen' batteries and the JB team comes up with the necessary hardware to allow for 10 minute 80% charging.

 

[JRP3]

Faster charging also means it's even less of a hardship for locals to get their money's worth if it's prepaid, which means increased use. Faster charge times may not solve the problem. I also think we are years away from 10 minute charging.

 

[austinEV]

Faster charging also means it's even less of a hardship for locals to get their money's worth if it's prepaid, which means increased use. Faster charge times may not solve the problem. I also think we are years away from 10 minute charging.

yes... I feel like we are arguing about how to best allocate scare resources. If only there was a science dedicated to this...

Economics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

We are arguing the merits of socialism vs free market allocation.

 

[gigglehertz]

What if they dialed down the charging rate for local users, making it less convenient?

 

[dha]

What if they dialed down the charging rate for local users, making it less convenient?

This could backfire and lead to owners simply hogging the stalls for longer periods of time, which is precisely what the company wants to avoid.

 

[DonPedro]

If only there was a visionary in charge of the company with a clever and agile team behind him and a track record for finding smart and consumer friendly solutions. Alas, the stock is probably doomed, since our internet forum cannot agree on how to fix this issue... :wink:

 

[eloder]

This is going to run into several legal hurdles at the State level because Tesla is not a utility. In some/most States only regulated utilities can re-sell electricity.

Wha? Does that mean I can sue Chargepoint, NRG, and the other providers of charging equipment because they charge by the kwh? I'm not quite sure how that can be illegal because they're providing a service for a car, not supercharging people's homes.

Regarding long-term SC future, here are my thoughts:
-Local supercharging is necessary for the Model 3. Musk isn't going to revolutionize anything if ~40% of the population (apartment dwellers) cannot charge. The Supercharging Network is Musk's greatest asset against competitors.
-Free local supercharging is not necessary for the Model 3. I think it should remain free for original owners of the current Model S population at a minimum, but they will want to spell out clear rules and regulations for future buyers.
-Pay per use fees are good for local supercharging, with some of the cost still being built into the car. Free for long distance I think is a huge selling point without much cost to the business because people tend to think of their $300 gas bills on road trips, not the $50-100 it'd take on electricity. They don't have to charge anything ridiculous--it just needs enough of a margin to help maintain and continue build-out of the SC network.
-Prepaid unlimited local supercharging I think is a dumb idea for a non-luxury car. It makes sense when starting a build-out of a nationwide network, it doesn't make sense for a mature network. It'd be disproportionately abused by people with extremely long commutes and people running commercial ventures like Uber on their MS. (When something is free or a flat rate, you'll run into the issue of 5% of the population utilizing 95% of the resources, no different than Unlimited Data being removed from most phone carriers)
-Restricting charging speed will cause more harm than good. If someone charges at the SC to save $2-3 on a $70k car, you can be quite sure that they're charging there due to no other convenient alternatives.

I really wouldn't worry about the communication aspects. I work for a Fortune50 company and I'd peg Tesla's internal and external communications much better than that of my own company.

Drivetrain reliability is definitely a huge issue and it is integral that they fix the reliability issues in the car. You don't hear about Leafs with any problems, really, outside of their crappy battery capacity (thanks to no temperature management system!). Volt EV components are flawless over 200k+ electric miles. It's something that is passable on the Model S because a luxury company can afford to give incredible customer service in the event of failures such as buying people taxis and hotel rooms on drivetrain failure on trips, but it's not possible for a mass market company.

 

[Auzie]

yes... I feel like we are arguing about how to best allocate scare resources. If only there was a science dedicated to this...

Economics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

We are arguing the merits of socialism vs free market allocation.

Such line of thinking may be rational today but hopefully not in the future.

My experience is that many resources that were scarce in the past are much less scarce today. Some resources are abundant and free. I'd like to think that electricity might become free one day, or at least so cheap that no one bothers to go to supercharger for a charge unless they need to.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Because it is unsustainable. There will be hard feelings between users honestly using SC as intended, and locals using it daily as a free gas station. "free" leads to abuse. The entire value proposition goes to hell if you try to road trip and you experience full chargers at every stop. The simplest cure for this is a modest pay-per-use which would take away the incentive to charge locally.

Or simply:
- time limits on parking so you can't use it as a parking spot
- low priority on local Superchargers so you don't slow up other people charging
- low maximum rates so it's inconvenient to charge there (and you can't get a full charge)
There's stuff they can do to deter and minimize the impact on others while avoiding the additional overheads and regulatory issues associated with billing.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

yes... I feel like we are arguing about how to best allocate scare resources. If only there was a science dedicated to this...

Economics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

We are arguing the merits of socialism vs free market allocation.

No we are not! The question is whether the most best and potentially most cost-efficient model (pay up front, free at point of use) can be made to work. If people use the Superchargers when needed, which could simply happen if people rationally evaluate the value of their time, and the market shifts such that access to home charging (driveway, lot, garage or street) becomes easy and universal, the network will be much cheaper to build, maintain and operate.

The key difference between this and, say, Internet or cellphone breakage models, is that (a) Tesla's approach has no ongoing billing (b) using a Supercharger as an unnecessary alternative to home charging is an inconvenience in exchange for financial savings, which is something that people do not normal do selfishly, and frankly a weird thing for a premium car owner to do.

It's that combination that could make it work. Tesla has a margin to play with; just need to keep it within the margin.

 

[JRP3]

The key difference between this and, say, Internet or cellphone breakage models, is that (a) Tesla's approach has no ongoing billing (b) using a Supercharger as an unnecessary alternative to home charging is an inconvenience in exchange for financial savings, which is something that people do not normal do selfishly, and frankly a weird thing for a premium car owner to do.

You'd think, but it already seems to be enough of an issue for Tesla to send out warning messages about local SC abuse. Now think about what happens with the much higher volume, lower cost Model 3, with much more cost sensitive owners.

 

[RobStark]

Wha? Does that mean I can sue Chargepoint, NRG, and the other providers of charging equipment because they charge by the kwh? I'm not quite sure how that can be illegal because they're providing a service for a car, not supercharging people's homes.

If it is there then it is almost assuredly legal.So no you can't sue. Sometimes the chargers are owned by the electric utility and a private company runs the program for the utility. Sometimes public chargers are outright owned and operated by the utility,sometimes the charging company got an exemption and in some instances there are no laws against reselling electricity by the kWh.

When Chargepoint or whoever wants an exemption for a public charger that is "non-discriminatory" goes to the utilities commission they get one treatment. My guess is when/if Tesla ask for a similar exemptions for a private network that serves cars in the $35k-$150k range they will get another treatment entirely.

And Tesla can't have a patchwork of rules like CHAdeMo or CCS. It needs to be uniform and seamless and at the very least national if not global.

 

[FANGO]

Eloder: in states where they can't charge by kWh, they charge by hour. California is one of these.