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I can certainly imagine that for the Model-3 Tesla might consider some way of billing for the use of SuperChargers within a certain range of your living address or even for use of SuperChargers much higher than what is considered 'fair-use".

As long as Tesla makes sure that in case of any problem with authentication / billing the (free) charging is enabled by default.

For me one of the biggest advantages of the SuperCharger 'billing' model is that nothing can go wrong with authentication and billing. They simply always work :).
Billing and authentication are the parts of any such system that cause most problems by far. No one should be unable to get to his / her destination because of such problem.
 
I can certainly imagine that for the Model-3 Tesla might consider some way of billing for the use of SuperChargers within a certain range of your living address or even for use of SuperChargers much higher than what is considered 'fair-use".

As long as Tesla makes sure that in case of any problem with authentication / billing the (free) charging is enabled by default.

For me one of the biggest advantages of the SuperCharger 'billing' model is that nothing can go wrong with authentication and billing. They simply always work :).
Billing and authentication are the parts of any such system that cause most problems by far. No one should be unable to get to his / her destination because of such problem.

Even though there is no billing as of now, there most certainly is authentication. Try plugging in a non-SC enabled 60kWh Model S and see what happens. I have never heard of any issues with authentication.
 
Even though there is no billing as of now, there most certainly is authentication. Try plugging in a non-SC enabled 60kWh Model S and see what happens. I have never heard of any issues with authentication.

Johann, yes you are correct. While typing this I had to think of the several RFID cards I have in case I need public charging. Pff, how I had those, glad I hardly ever need them anymore :)
Tesla's authentication system indeed seems very reliable.
 
With today's price action, the possibility of Tesla pursuing driverless services is now being talked about publicly. This could have enormous impacts on the company's long term profitability. There's a lot of separate small pieces to this driving service puzzle already out there that may point towards Tesla and other companies pursuing such a service.

1) The whole reason this conversation got started was after the MS analyst asked if they would compete with Uber or "cut out the middle man" and provide services themselves. Elon's non-answer implied that they have at least been thinking about it.

2) Aside from Tesla, both Google and Apple have been testing driverless cars for some time now and a lot of focus/capital has been spent on autonomous technology from some quite revolutionary companies. Elon once said that that Google's way of doing driverless cars is much more expensive and not profitable, so why would they be trying so hard to push for driverless vehicles if it can't profit off vehicle sales to the public?

3) The recent video that emerged of the self-charging Tesla charger fits right into all of this. If cars are going to be driving people around by themselves, they're going to have to charge themselves. Putting that much time into making an automatic charger just to save people the 10 seconds of a normal charge doesn't make much sense to me.

4) There's recently been news of simulated city in Michigan currently being built just for development of Autonomous cars. It's not just a fantasy anymore. People are beginning to realize that this will play a major role in the future of transport. This project should speed of the technology and hopefully regulations that are to come.

5) It all generally makes sense. Tesla's mission is to accelerate the advent of electric vehicles and what better way to do it than to take out all of these gasoline taxis and ubers? The more people they can get to try out a Tesla, the more free advertising and positive publicity that would surround Tesla and EVs in general. This would also be arguable the most profitable aspect of Tesla's business model. Tesla has to do much more than just sell cars to reach the $700B cap within the next ten years that Musk has mentioned. Autonomous driving is a much bigger deal than many are anticipating simply because it sounds like it's something out of a movie. Once the technology is perfected and regularly out on the road, services like Uber are worthless.

This may all take a long time to come to fruition but at this point it's hard to believe that Tesla isn't going to at least try to incorporate this into their business. It would make Tesla a bigger part of everyday life and it coincides with their company mission.
 
A tempering observation about self driving cars and some huge market that will suddenly appear and leave everything else out of business - we're a group of people that have personally dealt with the paradigm shift from filling a car with gas, to charging our car in the garage. And if you talk to people while out and about, or you attend EV show and tell events, and talk to people about the mental shift to bring electric driving into their life, then you know how hard it is for people to make that mental leap.

I'm curious how easily people think large numbers of people will get into a vehicle with no steering wheel, or a steering wheel with nobody sitting at it, to carry them to where they want to go? That looks to me like a gargantuan release of control on the part of customers. Granted, there are plenty here ready to ditch the (steering wheel), and there are always the innovators / early adopters. But Early Majority and crossing the chasm into widespread acceptance?

My guess, and that's all it is, is that there won't be any labor savings to be had for about 2 decades - the first decade of implementation will still necessitate a human driver sitting behind the wheel, even if they aren't doing anything except being ready to participate. It'll take a decade of having auto pilot with a human to begin to see significant legal changes that will allow for auto pilot without a human - self piloting and driving cars, with the driver seat just another passenger seat.


I do like that people are thinking along these lines. Down this line of thought are a lot fewer vehicles needed in the world, lots more miles going onto fewer vehicles, I suspect a huge increase in the amount of miles traveled (lower overall system costs trickle through to the consumer in the form of lower commute costs), better utilization of our roadways, fewer traffic jams, and lots of other good outcomes. I certainly hope I'm alive to see some of these things happen.
 
I'm curious how easily people think large numbers of people will get into a vehicle with no steering wheel, or a steering wheel with nobody sitting at it, to carry them to where they want to go? That looks to me like a gargantuan release of control on the part of customers. Granted, there are plenty here ready to ditch the (steering wheel), and there are always the innovators / early adopters. But Early Majority and crossing the chasm into widespread acceptance?
My guess is most people who today drive cars would find it very difficult to give up control. So, it might take a generation or two before driverless cars become the majority.
 
My guess is most people who today drive cars would find it very difficult to give up control. So, it might take a generation or two before driverless cars become the majority.

There is a big policy advantage in self-driving cars. 5-10% would probably make traffic go smoother. 50% and it is probably dramatic. I see state and local governments encouraging this because it is a lot cheaper to encourage people to change their cars than to build new highways. In other words, we won't have to depend on consumers pushing, there will be pull from policy makers too. This is different from ICE/vs EV in the sense that state and local governments don't care, other than for altruistic green reasons. Self driving will provide tangable traffic improvements and increase capacity on existing roadways, as well as being safer and arguably greener.
 
Returning briefly to the local vs long-distance supercharging point: not all Tesla owners the means to charge at home or the office. I'm in that category. Tesla understands this, which is why there's such a density of SuperChargers in London, where a great many likely customers don't own a parking space. That said, I think a pay-per-use model for the Model 3 is a good idea, as it will encourage those who can charge at home to do so (as if the convenience of home charging isn't argument enough).
 
There is a big policy advantage in self-driving cars. 5-10% would probably make traffic go smoother. 50% and it is probably dramatic. I see state and local governments encouraging this because it is a lot cheaper to encourage people to change their cars than to build new highways. In other words, we won't have to depend on consumers pushing, there will be pull from policy makers too. This is different from ICE/vs EV in the sense that state and local governments don't care, other than for altruistic green reasons. Self driving will provide tangable traffic improvements and increase capacity on existing roadways, as well as being safer and arguably greener.

Unless, as has been suggested by many, self-driving EVs lead to a significant increase in miles traveled, which increases congestion. As much as I think they're the future and will do good for the world, it seems very likely that they will increase the amount of cars on the road.
 
Unless, as has been suggested by many, self-driving EVs lead to a significant increase in miles traveled, which increases congestion. As much as I think they're the future and will do good for the world, it seems very likely that they will increase the amount of cars on the road.

I would argue that the status quo is about as close to the worst case scenario as you can get. people already choose to live far from where they work to save on housing costs, already drive wasteful paths to get groceries and run routine errands, run their kids around. We already hire UPS drivers to have Amazon prime send us one small box. We are sitting smack in the middle of the worst case. By automating driving things will just be more efficient. It is possible that people will choose to live even more far out from city centers, but there is a balancing effect of city dwellers having more ubiquitous cheap transport options. Plus there is some statistic that 50% (don't remember the real number) of miles driven in a dense city center is people looking for parking. All these things get smoothed out. I am unconvinced that we can get worse.
 
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/17/3692190/california-pension-plans-fossil-fuel-losses/
California Lost $5 Billion In Public Pension Funds Billion Due To Fossil Fuel Investments Last Year
BY SAMANTHA PAGE AUG 17, 2015 11:43AM


New legislation calls for California's pension funds to divest from coal, while a report finds that fossil fuel investments cost the funds $5 billion in the last 12 months.

California’s public pension funds lost $5 billion last year through declines in their fossil fuel investments, according to a new report from Trillium Asset Management....
 
Unless, as has been suggested by many, self-driving EVs lead to a significant increase in miles traveled, which increases congestion. As much as I think they're the future and will do good for the world, it seems very likely that they will increase the amount of cars on the road.

I think people underestimate the traffic benefits of self-driving cars.

Imagine a traffic light now v. with full autonomous drivers. Now. there's at least a .5-2s delay between every car in a line starting to move, once the car in front moves. With autonomous cars, you'd probably see the entire column of cars begin moving within 2 seconds. A traffic light that's normally a two minute affair is cleared up within 15 seconds.

Rivers don't have traffic because all the water particles are moving simultaneously. With half-decent infrastructure, traffic could become a thing of the past with fully autonomous cars.

Or better yet (as some people have modelled), fully autonomous cars wouldn't even need traffic signals and could utilize much more of every intersection at any given time.

I'm curious how easily people think large numbers of people will get into a vehicle with no steering wheel, or a steering wheel with nobody sitting at it, to carry them to where they want to go? That looks to me like a gargantuan release of control on the part of customers. Granted, there are plenty here ready to ditch the (steering wheel), and there are always the innovators / early adopters. But Early Majority and crossing the chasm into widespread acceptance?


Cost of ownership and insurance are likely to be two very huge factors pushing people into acceptance. Cars are pretty expensive to own--second only to houses, but unlike houses they whittle away and depreciate into nothingness pretty quickly. A house on the other hand, when you have a 2-4 people equally sharing living costs, ends up being a relatively minor expense and appreciates with time.

With the car2go carsharing service in my own city, I calculated that I could drive about 4000 miles annually on the carsharing service before having my own vehicle is worth it. Now imagine such a carsharing service when the fuel is a fraction the cost, where the cars go from maybe 10-20% utilization to 70-90%+, all the cars are low-maintenance and long-lasting electrified drivetrains, and when there's no crews needed to fuel up and go out to maintain vehicles sitting at the side of the road. That 4000 mile number could very easily and very quickly jump to 20,000-50,000 annual miles needed before a personal car is more worthwhile, as the level of autonomy for the cars go up.

Look at the popularity of services like Lyft and Uber, which could be slashed in price with fully autonomous EVs.
 
Eloder: Current highway capacity is estimated to be at about 5% utilization with human drivers:

Research shows that capacity benefits can be realized to a greater extent when AVtechnology is combined with connected vehicle technologies such as V2V and V2Icommunications. For instance, Shaldover et al.11 estimate that human-driven vehiclesequipped with ACC lead to very modest increases in the highway capacity, if the driverschoose the spacing between vehicles. On the other hand, use of the cooperative ACC(CACC) technology, which allows communications between vehicles, can significantlyincrease highway capacity at moderate to high market penetration (at 100% presence ofCACC vehicles in the traffic mix). However, at small market penetration rates such as 10percent, even CACC technology does not lead to discernible capacity benefits. At 50 percentmarket penetration, they estimate a maximum capacity of 2,685 vehicles per hour per lane(vphpl), which is 22 percent higher than the today’s typical highway capacity (of 2,200vphpl). At 80 percent and 100 percent penetration rates, they estimate a maximumcapacity increase of 50 percent and 80 percent, respectively.

Source: http://www.automatedvehicleinstitute.org/pdf/TAVI_8-CapacityPinjari.pdf
 
Most of the Panglossian claims that self-driving cars will allow for more efficient use of road space are simply garbage. Their little toy models fail to account for things like pedestrians.

You can fit more cars in on the *expressway*, but on the city streets, where it matters, it's not nearly so easy.