Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[CaptainKirk]

My mind was blown when JB showed the inside of the power pack and said the racks are hot swappable. Definitely a huge plus going forward for future serviceability, and if better chemistry comes along, it means that the packs can be "upgraded" if the clients wishes.

 

[jhm]

My mind was blown when JB showed the inside of the power pack and said the racks are hot swappable. Definitely a huge plus going forward for future serviceability, and if better chemistry comes along, it means that the packs can be "upgraded" if the clients wishes.

I wonder if this opens the way to use modules of different ages within the same Powerpack. This has two advantages: you can upgrade one module at a time, and you can use used modules of different ages. Thus, used cells from an EV pack can be broken down to modules and repurposed in Powerpacks. Could this be a path to repurposing EV batteries?

 

[surfside]

I wonder if this opens the way to use modules of different ages within the same Powerpack. This has two advantages: you can upgrade one module at a time, and you can use used modules of different ages. Thus, used cells from an EV pack can be broken down to modules and repurposed in Powerpacks. Could this be a path to repurposing EV batteries?

sure seems like it. and with the new 90 pack being an upgrade option soon per elon's announcement, tesla will likely start getting its first batch of returned batteries. i wonder if we will evenutally see two prices for the powerpack -- one for the "new" model, and a cheaper price for a powerpack with "factory refurbished" batteries.

surfside

 

[jbcarioca]

sure seems like it. and with the new 90 pack being an upgrade option soon per elon's announcement, tesla will likely start getting its first batch of returned batteries. i wonder if we will evenutally see two prices for the powerpack -- one for the "new" model, and a cheaper price for a powerpack with "factory refurbished" batteries.

surfside

One question is how much tolerance the design has to accept different chemistries and other pack characteristics. If they will accept repurposed packs, as Nissan and GM are both doing today, tesla must have some sort of pack-level control that treats each pack as an independent, not necessarily equal, source. That presents an interesting problem for data displays and BMS. I, too, think they are probably planning for that.

 

[dalalsid]

sure seems like it. and with the new 90 pack being an upgrade option soon per elon's announcement, tesla will likely start getting its first batch of returned batteries. i wonder if we will evenutally see two prices for the powerpack -- one for the "new" model, and a cheaper price for a powerpack with "factory refurbished" batteries.

surfside

Forget about storage, I'd like to see cars - Model S 85 refurb battery for the price of S 70 new battery.

 

[austinEV]

I wonder if this opens the way to use modules of different ages within the same Powerpack. This has two advantages: you can upgrade one module at a time, and you can use used modules of different ages. Thus, used cells from an EV pack can be broken down to modules and repurposed in Powerpacks. Could this be a path to repurposing EV batteries?

I have been saying for years this is how they should "recycle" cells. Put them into powerpacks for their factories. They can absorb cells for a long time without need for any other plan to re manufacture them or break them down for lithium.

 

[replicant]

Interesting article in the Guardian about Google push into the automative market.

Tidbits:

• "The tech giant has flirted with major car firms as it explores driverless cars but has also quietly set up its own auto company, according to documents obtained by the Guardian."
• "In March, he told USA Today: “Making cars is really hard, and the car companies are quite good at it. So, in my mind, the solution is to find a partnership."
• "Paperwork filed by Google Auto with the NHTSA, and seen by the Guardian, indicates that the cars are rear-wheel drive in design, with each wheel having its own braking system. The cars are powered by a modest 20-30kW electric motor from a lithium ion battery. All the cars built so far have been assembled on the outskirts of Detroit, Michigan, by Google’s manufacturing partner, the engineering firm Roush."
  

(X-post from General Forum > Cars and Transportation)

 

[adiggs]

I'm curious if anybody saw something in the most recent earnings call or shareholder letter that has actively changed (positively or negatively) their long term view of Tesla's prospects?

I've not yet had a chance to listen to the replay, but hope to get to it this weekend.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Tesla will probably have sold 200,000 total cars by the first half of 2017, which will exhaust their $7,500 per vehicle EV credit granted by the US government. What does everybody think the chances are of the government either extending these credits or giving similar incentives to electric vehicle makers like Tesla? If they are not able to get any additional subsidies, it would greatly impact their margins and selling price of the model III. A few thousand dollar difference in the starting price matters a lot more when making a "mass market" car like the M3 when compared to the Model S. Are there any candidates in particular that have a higher chance of granting federal subsidies? (this is not meant to be a political discussion/debate)

 

[Zaxxon]

Ludicrous, only US sales count toward that 200k. Also, the credit then doesn't start to drop for two calendar quarters, and is available but reduced for four more.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

If there is one thing that concerns me about the Long Term fundamentals of Tesla, it is communications and the future of the Supercharger network.

Some Model S owners are receiving letters warning them that the Superchargers are only for long-distance travel: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/51482-Supercharging-letter-from-Tesla. However, many of these owners say they don't use their local Superchargers much, if at all, and some recipients of the letter appear to have no local Superchargers at all. Meanwhile, there are several people who claim to use their local Superchargers often, but have not received a warning letter. It's idiotic at best and damaging to the brand. :cursing:

This is going to be a complete nightmare if Tesla can't get its act together for the Model 3 launch.

 

[EVNow]

What does everybody think the chances are of the government either extending these credits or giving similar incentives to electric vehicle makers like Tesla?

I think the chances are fair if the next president is a democrat - even though the last one was passed when Bush was president. The sentiment would be pro such bills if a Dem becomes the next president. Small change to the language of the old bill can be added to some omnibus bill to pass it. It will have bipartisan support from congressmen from CA, MI & TN.

 

[JRP3]

I'm still hoping that Tesla does not provide "free" SC for the Model 3.

 

[dalalsid]

I'm still hoping that Tesla does not provide "free" SC for the Model 3.

Why? That's what makes a Tesla so compelling, right? They just need to put limits on it, not start charging per use or something like that.

 

[jhm]

I'm still hoping that Tesla does not provide "free" SC for the Model 3.

To keep the sticker price down, this and many other services can be sold on a subscription basis. There's no sense paying sales taxes and ad valorum registration taxes for things like future software upgrades or access to charging infrastructure. I don't want to pay interest on a loan for that either. Tesla needs to work on pricing that minimizes tax and financing costs.

 

[hcsharp]

I'm still hoping that Tesla does not provide "free" SC for the Model 3.

Why? That's what makes a Tesla so compelling, right? They just need to put limits on it, not start charging per use or something like that.

Because there won't be enough superchargers to prevent people from having to wait in line. Remember they expect to ramp up very quickly to 1,000,000 cars per year. Free supercharging would be bad for people who really need it for road trips. Simply putting limits on it will not be enough.

 

[JRP3]

Why? That's what makes a Tesla so compelling, right?

I don't think so, the vehicle is what is compelling. Certainly the "free", (prepaid), SC access is not a value proposition to me as a future Model 3 buyer, and certainly not as a shareholder. As we've seen, a prepaid service encourages abuse. I'd prefer to see that remain with the lower volume up market vehicles such as the S and X, and the mass market 3 get it billed to your account per use, at a slightly higher rate than local electricity prices. That should discourage those with access to home charging from tying up SC's while allowing those who may not have home charging to still own a Model 3 with substantially lower fueling costs than an ICE.

 

[RobStark]

and the mass market 3 get it billed to your account per use, at a slightly higher rate than local electricity prices.

This is going to run into several legal hurdles at the State level because Tesla is not a utility. In some/most States only regulated utilities can re-sell electricity.

I say put a limit on Superchargers within 50 miles of where the vehicle is parked on a regular basis. Not parked occasionally but regularly and put a very high cap on yearly usage.

The person that drives 100k plus miles a year using the Superchargers 90% of the time even if away from home is also abusive.

BTW IF you don't want to finance Supercharger use then just pay $2k more down. If you make it separate many will chose not to buy when they should and have a terrible experience and relate that terrible experience to others.

BTW II If I had a nickle for every owner that said they didn't need Supercharger access for their needs but how great the Superchargers are to use then......

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

This is going to run into several legal hurdles at the State level because Tesla is not a utility. In some/most States only regulated utilities can re-sell electricity.

I say put a limit on Superchargers within 50 miles of where the vehicle is parked on a regular basis. Not parked occasionally but regularly and put a very high cap on yearly usage.

The person that drives 100k plus miles a year using the Superchargers 90% of the time even if away from home is also abusive.
.............................................................................................................................................

The more time I spend on here the more unsure I am about buying a Model 3. It was my dream, but comments like this, drive trains exploding frequently according to historic posts on TMC, production delays and unwarranted emails being sent to people who don't even use Superchargers is turning me against this company. I travel very long distances for work purposes (Medicine Hat and back a couple times a week - 600km in a day) and if somebody on here or the wing walker Musk is going to tell me I can't supercharge then all the best - I will be buying an ICE. So I will be monitoring things. If there isn't a plan in the next year, my sale goes elsewhere. I don't need the hassle or to be made to feel like a criminal.

 

[RobStark]

I will be buying an ICE. So I will be monitoring things. If there isn't a plan in the next year, my sale goes elsewhere.