Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[eloder]

Most of the Panglossian claims that self-driving cars will allow for more efficient use of road space are simply garbage. Their little toy models fail to account for things like pedestrians.

You can fit more cars in on the *expressway*, but on the city streets, where it matters, it's not nearly so easy.

When a train starts moving, all the cars begin moving nearly simultaneously.

A column of autonomous cars will act in the same way because computer reaction times are a tiny fraction of all humans.

Also, I'm not sure of any city whose traffic problems originate from having pedestrians, even remotely...

 

[EldestOyster]

Autonomous Vehicles (was: Long Term Investing...

When a train starts moving, all the cars begin moving nearly simultaneously.

A column of autonomous cars will act in the same way because computer reaction times are a tiny fraction of all humans.

Also, I'm not sure of any city whose traffic problems originate from having pedestrians, even remotely...

I agree with your conclusion, but I disagree with the "human reaction time". I can, and sometimes do, pull away right behind the vehicle in front of me. With an EV, it feels as though you have that degree of control. Most would say this is unsafe, and in so doing, support my claim that it's really about risk reduction. We need to drive defensively, in case "something unusual happens", and so we leave extra room. With the computers in control, nothing unusual should happen, and in the ideal scenario, they tell each other what they're doing. If a panic stop is necessary, that car may be on the brakes even before the human is, and that car will have already discussed this maneuver with those behind it. The following cars can use the (small) buffer between them to compress the line, so that each succeeding car is decelerating a little less hastily, so the "panic" part only applies to the two or three in the front.

We might even see the laws change to suggest not jumping out in front of a vehicle just because you know it would stop for you.

Note my tongue-in-cheek alteration of the thread title.

 

[neroden]

When a train starts moving, all the cars begin moving nearly simultaneously.

A column of autonomous cars will act in the same way because computer reaction times are a tiny fraction of all humans.

The spacing between cars has to increase as the cars speed up in order to maintain safe braking distances. So the cars certainly won't move simultaneously. Not at all like a train.

Unfortunately, what happens now is a lot of reckless tailgating. If self-driving cars cause cars to drive responsibly and safely in cities, it would be a great safety improvement, but it certainly wouldn't increase throughput; it would decrease it!

- - - Updated - - -

I think anyone stuck in a traffic jam on an expressway might disagree.

Touche. Most traffic jams are on city streets, though.

 

[EldestOyster]

The spacing between cars has to increase as the cars speed up in order to maintain safe braking distances. So the cars certainly won't move simultaneously. Not at all like a train.

My claim is that the notion of safe braking distance changes with automation. After all, it may take you 300 ft to stop, but it takes 300 ft for the car in front of you to stop, also. Drivers mostly react to the car in front (yes, better ones look ahead), and they also gauge how much to react. When they underestimate, each succeeding car ends up decelerating more intensely than the one in front, and you get the opposite scenario than the automated one I suggested.

I guess we'll just have to try it and see.

 

[Zaxxon]

After all, it may take you 300 ft to stop, but it takes 300 ft for the car in front of you to stop, also.

Not if it hits something.

 

[EldestOyster]

Going to veer slightly on-topic for a moment, with a little long-term frivolity.

"O Traders, come and bet with us!"
The Market did beseech.
"A pleasant ride, a pleasant dive,
and bargains within reach:
A chance to catch some falling knives,
While TMC'ers preach."

The Eldest Oyster looked at them
But never a word he said:
The Eldest Oyster winked his eye,
And shook his heavy head--
Meaning to say he did not choose
To see his holdings bled.

 

[hershey101]

Going to veer slightly on-topic for a moment, with a little long-term frivolity.

"O Traders, come and bet with us!"
The Market did beseech.
"A pleasant ride, a pleasant dive,
and bargains within reach:
A chance to catch some falling knives,
While TMC'ers preach."

The Eldest Oyster looked at them
But never a word he said:
The Eldest Oyster winked his eye,
And shook his heavy head--
Meaning to say he did not choose
To see his holdings bled.

Oh no... Not again... Didn't this trigger a 10pt drop last time?

 

[EldestOyster]

No, that was haiku. And this is after the fact. Plus, these days, a 10 point change is "noise".

 

[hershey101]

No, that was haiku. And this is after the fact. Plus, these days, a 10 point change is "noise".

Yea, at least its not a 40pt crash

 

[dmunjal]

Any comments on this article? Anyone familiar with this technology?

Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles?
Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) | Seeking Alpha

 

[EldestOyster]

Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) | Seeking Alpha

1. Seeking Alpha.
2. Journalistic Question Mark.
3. Premise: Because cellphones:

...therefore, cars.

 

[dmunjal]

1. Seeking Alpha.
2. Journalistic Question Mark.
3. Premise: Because cellphones:
View attachment 91854
...therefore, cars.

Lol. Thanks for the laugh this morning. I feel better already.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

There might be an application for big trucks. But IMO for cars batteries are already too cheap.
http://www.intelligent-energy.com/our-divisions/automotive/overview/

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Proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells in a hybrid electric configuration are viewed as a highly efficient alternative to the internal combustion engine, offering practical driving ranges, fast refilling times, exhilarating performance and dramatically reduced overall emissions.

Intelligent Energy proprietary fuel cell systems are modular and scalable, enabling our partners to deliver cost-effective and high value solutions to the fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and fuel cell range extender (FCRE) markets.

Intelligent Energy provides:

Superior fuel cell power density
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[JRP3]

Any comments on this article? Anyone familiar with this technology?

Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles?
Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) | Seeking Alpha

Hibben is usually a fairly good writer, but he missed the mark with this one. For example he says 6 gallons of this new technology holds the same amount of energy as an 85kWh Tesla pack, but ignores the fact that a fuel cell is maybe 60% efficient, compared to the 85-90% efficiency of an EV motor/inverter, so the fuel cell vehicle would need a higher amount of energy per mile.

 

[dalalsid]

I just sent him a message and also commented on the article. The calculations are way off. That device is 229ml and 25wh. No idea how that translates to 4kWh/l. Not even close.

 

[Gerasimental]

Hibben is usually a fairly good writer, but he missed the mark with this one. For example he says 6 gallons of this new technology holds the same amount of energy as an 85kWh Tesla pack, but ignores the fact that a fuel cell is maybe 60% efficient, compared to the 85-90% efficiency of an EV motor/inverter, so the fuel cell vehicle would need a higher amount of energy per mile.

Big deal. 9 gallons is still a pretty small tank compared to most hydrocarbon powered cars. His point stands.

 

[Johan]

I just sent him a message and also commented on the article. The calculations are way off. That device is 229ml and 25wh. No idea how that translates to 4kWh/l. Not even close.

Yeah makes little sense. The hydrogen is supposedly "stored at low pressure in some kind of powdered medium". What, like bound to some metal with 10-100 times the atomic weight of Hydrogen? Good luck extracting 4kWh/liter from that (85kWh from 6 gallons). Back of napkin math shows this must be way off.

 

[atang]

Yeah makes little sense. The hydrogen is supposedly "stored at low pressure in some kind of powdered medium". What, like bound to some metal with 10-100 times the atomic weight of Hydrogen? Good luck extracting 4kWh/liter from that (85kWh from 6 gallons). Back of napkin math shows this must be way off.

Which is why refuse to go to Seeking Alpha web site.ALWAYS BULL$hit, every time, all the time! Thanks for your time!:smile:

 

[Gerasimental]

Apologies, must admit I didn't read the article (Not opening another SA link since I found that they even published Mark Spiegel). It does seem like the numerical reasoning here is absolute horse****.

 

[atang]

Apologies, must admit I didn't read the article (Not opening another SA link since I found that they even published Mark Spiegel). It does seem like the numerical reasoning here is absolute horse****.

Your cool with me:smile: Glad we can agree!:wink: