firelegend
Member
Not if you buy them from tesla which given the issues that sometimes needs to be fixed, is the better idea, and those 2013's don't even have AP so yeah 44k sounds nice but...
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Losing enthusiasm for Model 3
- Thread starter igotzzoom
- Start date
Not if you buy them from tesla which given the issues that sometimes needs to be fixed, is the better idea, and those 2013's don't even have AP so yeah 44k sounds nice but...
There are two possibilities here...
1. You got real good deal when you purchased.
2. KBB is over estimating your trade in value.
Either way Tesla's are mass produced vehicles, your personal $800 depreciation is an anomaly and does not apply to market in general.
I bought 10 year old mass produced cars twice and sold them for profit 2 years later, I didn't spend $ to fix or rebuild them, I waited and bought right models at the right price from right seller. However, I would say 1k/year depreciation (after maintenance for older vehicles) doesn't apply to most people.
Actually @AustinPowers drives a car which is sought after in US, it's worth way more than what KBB might show. He didn't know what he had, if he was in US I would have bought it from him and flipped it overnight for profit. lol
I'm in an even funkier situation: comparable CPOs on Tesla's site right now are more expensive than the one I bought last October. Definitely an anomaly. I think the CPOs last fall were a bit discounted, and now there's increased demand for it due to people skipping out on the wait for Model 3, and so prices have gone up.
Putting aside the anomaly, depreciation is an exponential decay, with most of the value lost at the beginning of ownership. Buying used ensures a slower depreciation rate. As of right now, brand appeal is holding up values of Teslas, even the older ones without AP.
Putting aside the anomaly, depreciation is an exponential decay, with most of the value lost at the beginning of ownership. Buying used ensures a slower depreciation rate. As of right now, brand appeal is holding up values of Teslas, even the older ones without AP.
Drone Flyer
Active Member
Yes of course, but I'm talking about inter city travel here. And besides, if you bet a Model 3, it very well SHOULD be your main vehicle. Trust me, your gas car will sit in the driveway after driving a Tesla!
I went back and checked my spreadsheet. Here's how the numbers shake out:
- I've driven my current vehicle an average of 1341 miles/mo since purchase.
- 61% of miles are on the I95 corridor commute and most of those at highway speed.
- My car requires premium gas which has been hovering at $2.93 - 3.10 in my area.
- Fuelly reports an average of 21.2 mpg for my vehicle though i'm averaging a bit lower @ 21 mpg.
At $2.95/gal that's $188/mo in gas using averages since ownership. However, mileage has ticked up the last year or so as we are ferrying the kids around much more and some other lifestyle changes. I ran a trailing average of fuel costs for the past 6 mos @ $250.
Granted my baseline for cost comparison to the M3 is horrid. I have a gas-guzzling turbo WRX that I drive 80mph on 95 for 42mi round trip commute.
So i'm faced with a simple business decision which i've assessed over a 5yr horizon. PDF attached. Note that changing the monthly gas bill from $188 to $225 to $250 skews WRX NPV about $1000ish per step. It's about a wash in cost between the two options once time-value of money is factored in @ 6% cost of capital. Bumping CoC down 1% improves the decision in M3 favor by about $1200 and vise versa.
Of course, i've setup a false choice here. There's always other options like a perfectly reasonable honda civic that gets 30mpg. Though I'd have to factor in the cost of a lost soul and health problems attributed to chronic boredom in the NPV
I went back and checked my spreadsheet. Here's how the numbers shake out:
- I've driven my current vehicle an average of 1341 miles/mo since purchase.
- 61% of miles are on the I95 corridor commute and most of those at highway speed.
- My car requires premium gas which has been hovering at $2.93 - 3.10 in my area.
- Fuelly reports an average of 21.2 mpg for my vehicle though i'm averaging a bit lower @ 21 mpg.
At $2.95/gal that's $188/mo in gas using averages since ownership. However, mileage has ticked up the last year or so as we are ferrying the kids around much more and some other lifestyle changes. I ran a trailing average of fuel costs for the past 6 mos @ $250.
Granted my baseline for cost comparison to the M3 is horrid. I have a gas-guzzling turbo WRX that I drive 80mph on 95 for 42mi round trip commute.
So i'm faced with a simple business decision which i've assessed over a 5yr horizon. PDF attached. Note that changing the monthly gas bill from $188 to $225 to $250 skews WRX NPV about $1000ish per step. It's about a wash in cost between the two options once time-value of money is factored in @ 6% cost of capital. Bumping CoC down 1% improves the decision in M3 favor by about $1200 and vise versa.
Of course, i've setup a false choice here. There's always other options like a perfectly reasonable honda civic that gets 30mpg. Though I'd have to factor in the cost of a lost soul and health problems attributed to chronic boredom in the NPV
But with the Model 3, you have to pay for your electricity...no free supercharging. So the $250 a month you spend on gas will be replaced by $x you will have to spend on electricity.
Agreed. Tesla is an engineering-driven company like Dyson, Bose, Valentine One, etc. I'm in product development myself. If there's one thing i've learned over the years, engineers are an interesting mix of cynical & skeptical about new information or claims, yet always optimistic about their own ability to deliver. And they're usually off in their assessment by a factor of 2X if they are seasoned pros and 3X or more if they are inexperienced. Elon - as CEO - still falls into this trap. He will always be an engineer and a dreamer. This is a good thing for company vision and a bad thing for the bean counters.
I'm lucky that my company keeps sales and marketing at bay until the product is truly close to product release (mostly
). There is nothing worse than external customer schedule pressure on the messy sausage making of product development. I do not envy Tesla's current situation. They literally have the whole world waiting on their engineers and other talented folks to get production ramped up. There are thousands of schedule dependencies. Hundreds of inputs. Enormous technical and schedule risk. Tesla staff need breathing room.Personally, I don't fault them. I can relate, though my projects' complexities are tiny compared to theirs. They need to take their time and get it right. They need to keep in mind that every car that rolls off the line goes to a customer that just paid $50k. It needs to be perfect. The first time. IMO, auto blogs, shareholders, analysts, et al can all go pack sand.
Indeed. It's captured in the model. $46.80.
It was the car of the future 2 years ago, quickly becoming the car of the present and if they don't get their act together will be obsolete byt he time they ramp.
dhrivnak
Active Member
Yes the ramp is going slower than we like. But the Model 3 is the best selling EV in 2018 and thanks to the SuperCharger network Teslas are the only EV realistically able to travel long distances. I predict we will see another record of Model 3 cars this month. So Tesla still leads the pack for EVs. Now if you are needing a second car for around home then yes the Bolt and new Leaf are fine cars for that need. But only the Tesla’s are good for cross country travel.
It all comes down to, and continues to come down to, happiness = reality - expectations. Tesla is simultaneously very good at delivering very high reality, and is very bad as setting really high expectations. I want to reiterate though that Tesla doesn't really control expectations, you do. That being said, I will reiterate also Tesla is very bad at where your expectations are initially set at.
It's the catch-22 of Tesla, that I feel people who are waiting, and justifiably so, want Tesla to actually be forthcoming on everything related to their business, from the financials to the production numbers to what models will actually be able to be sold first and why, and you actually want them to stick to their plan, and if they change their plan, then be forthcoming on the changes, after all, you're a potential paying customer dammit and deserve some answers.
The thing is, Tesla has never been that, and you cannot expect them to change, it's the definition of insanity to expect them to do so. And everyone knows what will cause them to change, mass cancellations, and exposing the not so hidden truth that many of the cars sold are subpar in their quality,, and letting everyone know that (and I mean that realistically, we all know Tesla has problems in order of magnitude greater in that department for such expensive cars and for so little relative amounts).
But you can't do that, why? You believe in the idea, and the mission of Tesla too much, and Elon and Co know that too. So you stick with it, you bite your tongue, and you anguish over waiting cause you know they have you, and you don't want to kill the dream of electrified cars. So this site always ends up in two camps, the sunshine pumper zealot who keeps telling you it's actually the best and superior car and company in every way and you of little faith needs to just wait and it'll all be better some day, or the I am sticking to it dammit but I am chronically going to complain about some legit things but that's all I am going to do complainer.
It's utterly fascinating to watch it unfold, it's like groundhog day every day on this site. I just wish people would be more realistic about Tesla. It is a good not great company, led by a visionary who's bold and enticing vision is beset on all sides by anything resembling a realistic timeframe, that sells good to great to amazing cars with potentially a laundry list of minor to some really not minor issues that many car companies, while they do have issues, simply put they occur on a scale much higher for the low volume they push out compared to others.
Zealots, it's ok to criticize, Tesla deserves it for it's lack of being able to do business in a way people deserve to be treated, and chronic criticizers, honestly, what do you expect from a supermodel hot car company, that she isn't also potentially very crazy and going to have issues? And hasn't been this known since IDK day 1?, and not just for the model 3 but for literally every car this company has made in it's short history? IMO you get little sympathy when you knew the truth the whole time but hoped, dammit, maybe she won't throw shoes into the TV this time.
It's the catch-22 of Tesla, that I feel people who are waiting, and justifiably so, want Tesla to actually be forthcoming on everything related to their business, from the financials to the production numbers to what models will actually be able to be sold first and why, and you actually want them to stick to their plan, and if they change their plan, then be forthcoming on the changes, after all, you're a potential paying customer dammit and deserve some answers.
The thing is, Tesla has never been that, and you cannot expect them to change, it's the definition of insanity to expect them to do so. And everyone knows what will cause them to change, mass cancellations, and exposing the not so hidden truth that many of the cars sold are subpar in their quality,, and letting everyone know that (and I mean that realistically, we all know Tesla has problems in order of magnitude greater in that department for such expensive cars and for so little relative amounts).
But you can't do that, why? You believe in the idea, and the mission of Tesla too much, and Elon and Co know that too. So you stick with it, you bite your tongue, and you anguish over waiting cause you know they have you, and you don't want to kill the dream of electrified cars. So this site always ends up in two camps, the sunshine pumper zealot who keeps telling you it's actually the best and superior car and company in every way and you of little faith needs to just wait and it'll all be better some day, or the I am sticking to it dammit but I am chronically going to complain about some legit things but that's all I am going to do complainer.
It's utterly fascinating to watch it unfold, it's like groundhog day every day on this site. I just wish people would be more realistic about Tesla. It is a good not great company, led by a visionary who's bold and enticing vision is beset on all sides by anything resembling a realistic timeframe, that sells good to great to amazing cars with potentially a laundry list of minor to some really not minor issues that many car companies, while they do have issues, simply put they occur on a scale much higher for the low volume they push out compared to others.
Zealots, it's ok to criticize, Tesla deserves it for it's lack of being able to do business in a way people deserve to be treated, and chronic criticizers, honestly, what do you expect from a supermodel hot car company, that she isn't also potentially very crazy and going to have issues? And hasn't been this known since IDK day 1?, and not just for the model 3 but for literally every car this company has made in it's short history? IMO you get little sympathy when you knew the truth the whole time but hoped, dammit, maybe she won't throw shoes into the TV this time.
seattlite2004
Active Member
Regarding Tesla Superchargers....looks like prices have increased. All the more reason that I'll be taking a Hybrid on roadtrips....no route planning, not constricted on route/roads I take...basically more freedom on the road. So....for me...supercharging isn't really a compelling reason to buy a Tesla.
Changes for Supercharging Rates • r/teslamotors
Changes for Supercharging Rates • r/teslamotors
Ouch. I was looking forward to taking advantage of the cheaper power on a road trip through Oregon and Washington later in the summer, but it looks like those got the biggest (%) increase.
Building the Supercharger Network for the Future
You can look at this way: Your Model 3 supercharging fees are helping to subsidize ongoing free supercharging for those who bought Model S & X before.
Building the Supercharger Network for the Future
You can look at this way: Your Model 3 supercharging fees are helping to subsidize ongoing free supercharging for those who bought Model S & X before.
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Catman20009
Member
I continue to be more and more excited by the M3. I don't like the wait but nothing else currently available does that.
AustinPowers
Total Smeghead
Funny that your "expectations" match almost exactly what real world data for any type of car shows, whereas your "empirical data" is a complete contradiction to any realistic depreciation table you can find for any car, including Model S's and X's.
So rhetorical question: you have already sold your Model S again and you only lost 800 USD over that one year in the process? In that case I congratulate you and take back everything I said before.
But - if you have not sold your Model S then believe me it has lost more than 800 USD in that one year. What you call "fact" or "empirical data" is just what I called it, BS. Because try selling your Model S for the "value" you saw quoted wherever. Reality will soon catch up with you.
If a Model S, however old, would only lose 800 USD in value per year, then no sane person would ever buy any other car. Like I said, even a 20K car, hell, even a 15K car, depreciates more than that in one year, and not just in the first four or five years. THAT is empirical data you can look up anywhere in depreciation tables as well as experience with any real car you will have ever owned or will ever own.
Expect what you wish for Model 3 depreciation, the numbers you called facts are clearly not facts but merely assumptions, and completely unrealistic ones at that.
AustinPowers
Total Smeghead
Are you serious? My car is almost fifteen years old. And while it is still in great condition (and I have no intention of ever selling it), I don't think it will be worth much over time. It is a Diesel after all
Actually I am seriously contemplating converting it to BEV. Because other than the fact that is an ICE I like everything about it better than the Model 3 - which to me would only be a stopgap car anyway, before there are affordable long range BEVs from European automakers. I have said it all along, if BMW offered a BEV 3-series, I would never even give Tesla - or any other manufacturer - a second thought.
And again about the SC network: I take Germany as an example. Average distances driven on a daily basis are miniscule compared to what is driven in the US, and most people don't make cross country roadtrips all too often. And even if they do, in a Model 3 they will have to pay for the electricity just like they would have to pay for gas/Diesel. And don't forget, electricity is not cheap here. Plus, alternative fast charging systems are being built out more and more, so there will be a day in the not so distant future when the SC advantage will be a completely mute point over here anyway. Only the free SC usage for older S's and X's is really an advantage worth talking about, but as you don't get this any longer, so goes the advantage as well.
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Hank101
Go Tigers!
Would be nice if we had an available alternative like this (NOTE: NOT REAL - DOES NOT EXIST):
Chevrolet Jolt EV – All-Electric Sports Car
Domestically produced, by an "experienced" producer, locally serviced, competitively priced, conventional dash, "decent" appearance, interior/exterior options, reliable release plan, ect....
GM could do this, or similar, if so desired. Time will tell.
Chevrolet Jolt EV – All-Electric Sports Car
Domestically produced, by an "experienced" producer, locally serviced, competitively priced, conventional dash, "decent" appearance, interior/exterior options, reliable release plan, ect....
GM could do this, or similar, if so desired. Time will tell.
david_42
Member
We've been driving sub-compacts for decades. The Model 3 is eight inches wider and over a foot longer than our Kia. It's a compact, not a sub-compact like the Leaf or Prius.
