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M3P lease or pcp opinion

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#21
Just because the residuals are high just now does not meant they will be in 3-4 years when it's time to move on. A lease puts all the risk with the lease company. My view is that in 3 years there will be a hell of a lot more model 3's on the market and new ones potentially have newer better battery tech making the current ones less attractive and the price will plummet.

Hence my plan to lease the current car but buy the next one in 4 years when the lease runs out.
 
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#22
The question is simple. Do you think the car will be worth 5k more than the GFV on the PCP?

I didn’t say the answer was but that’s the gamble. Lease can price for close to the expected future median price, they get the benefit of upsides to offset against downsides across the cars they lease out (in other words, they’re ok if the future values across all their cars are more or less accurate even if some are say 3k up and some are 3k down)

PCP will however aim at a lower quartile because any upsides are usually bagged by the customer so they need to be confident they’ll cover the costs and they have few cars in negative equity at the end of the term. They need to avoid the situation where some cars are 3k up which will be bought by the customer who can flip the car for a 3k profit, and cars that are 3k down where they take the hit.

So.. take the FGV, add 5k which is the difference you’re paying over the term and if you think the car will be worth more than that then go PCP.. if you’re not sure, don’t want the risk or don’t want the hassle of buying the car at the end, go HP.
 
#23
if you think the car will be worth more than that then go PCP.. if you’re not sure, don’t want the risk or don’t want the hassle of buying the car.

Difficult to say whether it will be worth more that's the gamble. 25k for a M3P red seems low after 4 years but it could be right. Like alot of people think, the price of teslas could plummet in 3 years but nobody knows. The safest option is definitely the 2 year lease on a long range but this could be my last chance to get the P due to reasons I explained earlier.
 
#24
Futur3EV said:
if you think the car will be worth more than that then go PCP.. if you’re not sure, don’t want the risk or don’t want the hassle of buying the car.

Difficult to say whether it will be worth more that's the gamble. 25k for a M3P red seems low after 4 years but it could be right. Like alot of people think, the price of teslas could plummet in 3 years but nobody knows. The safest option is definitely the 2 year lease on a long range but this could be my last chance to get the P due to reasons I explained earlier.
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Just for clarity, it's not just worth more than the GFV, it needs to be worth more than the GFV plus the extra you've paid going PCP, in this case an extra 5k. If the future value is 25k, the car needs to clear 30k just to break even with a lease.
 
#25
GeorgeSymonds said:
Just for clarity, it's not just worth more than the GFV, it needs to be worth more than the GFV plus the extra you've paid going PCP, in this case an extra 5k. If the future value is 25k, the car needs to clear 30k just to break even with a lease.
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Yeah I see what you mean. In todays market that would seem easy to make the money back but if better tech improves in the next couple years then it probably wouldn't. Something I need to think on I guess
 
#26
C225 said:
Just because the residuals are high just now does not meant they will be in 3-4 years when it's time to move on. A lease puts all the risk with the lease company. My view is that in 3 years there will be a hell of a lot more model 3's on the market and new ones potentially have newer better battery tech making the current ones less attractive and the price will plummet.

Hence my plan to lease the current car but buy the next one in 4 years when the lease runs out.
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You're right there's no crystal ball, but we do have some decent data looking at s/h Model S and Model X values. I frankly think they're extraordinary and the early signs are similar for the Model 3. Why, for instance, are 1 year old cars with a decent mileage on them going for near enough list price? It's not as if the 3 is supply constrained. Order one today and you'll be in it in 3-4 months, which seems a perfectly reasonable amount of time to wait. Very little about the s/h car market is sensible.
 
#27
browellm said:
You're right there's no crystal ball, but we do have some decent data looking at s/h Model S and Model X values. I frankly think they're extraordinary and the early signs are similar for the Model 3. Why, for instance, are 1 year old cars with a decent mileage on them going for near enough list price? It's not as if the 3 is supply constrained. Order one today and you'll be in it in 3-4 months, which seems a perfectly reasonable amount of time to wait. Very little about the s/h car market is sensible.
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At the minute the model 3 has only been in the UK for 2 years so the second hand market hardly has any as most will still have the first one, give it another three years and pcp and leases will run out so just my opinion there will be a lot more on the market putting the price down.

The s and x are much more expensive niche cars in my view with hardly any on sale so thier prices will remain high. Just all my opinion and may be completely wrong and throwing money away but i've got a nice car to drive while I do 😅
 
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#29
Futur3EV said:
Hi everyone,

Hoping to get some advice/personal opinions on leasing and pcp (sorry I know this has been asked quite a few times)

I've been looking at alot of quotes and have got my 3 best options and would like your thoughts on what you think would be best and why.

I could lease through tesla for a 5.4k deposit, 10k miles per annum and 740 p/m for 47 months (no maintenance inc)

Pcp through forza is showing as 10k deposit. 10k miles per annum and 740 p/m for 48 months.

I could also do pcp with 8k miles instead which brings the monthly down to 717. However, I've heard with a tesla you will do more miles than expected due to how fun they are (15ppm if I go over) I don't ever do over 8k miles per year at the moment.

Just after some thoughts whether you think spending around 5 to 6k more on a pcp for the flexibility is worth it as oppose to saving it on the lease?

I'm aware of the pros and cons to both leasing and pcp I was just after any other thoughts/opinions which may help my decision as their may be experiences/thoughts I had not considered.

If it helps, the longest I've ever kept a car is 4 years so I likely wouldn't keep it and the gfmv on the pcp is 26k after 48 months.

Much appreciated.
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I am facing a similar decision for a model Y currently on order. What did you do finally?
 
#30
If you have the cash available how does a cash-purchase stack up?

My experience has been that the trade in on EV has been good (very good at present, but its also good for most anything at present)

2nd hand market strong - as EVs become more popular then in 3 years time loads more will buy one new, and the people wanting a 2nd hand one will be larger too, far greater than the number sold THIS year.

My first 2015 was a Model-S. I regard that as luxury end of the price scale and, as such, would expect massive depreciation just driving it out of the showroom.

I had it 3.5 years, put 95K miles on it, and traded it in for 50%. Meantime the replacement Model-S went 20% further and cost 20% less ...

Not sure a Beamer/equivalent ICE would have done anything like as well as that.

Would I have got a finance deal that left me with the 50% trade-in value at the end, and what would that have cost me? 25% of the cost of the car over 3.5 years? Or am I way off?
 
#31
Cash, PCP, lease is all a matter of juggling risk, cost and flexibility to suit your taste.

Cash - highest cost, totally flexible you can trade in when you like or not, but also a reasonable risk... the car me be worth nothing in a few years.

Lease - lowest cost, not flexible at all, but no risk, you pay the price for the agreed term for the agreed miles and give the car back, doesn't matter what it's worth.

Those are the two ends of the spectrum. PCP sites in the middle.
The cost is mid way between, the flexibility is part way.. you can part ex part way though and settle or finance it at the end and keep it. And the risk is pretty low too, in that if at the end it's worthless you hand it back at no cost, and if it's worth more you keep it and trade it and make a profit.

So really you need to look at your situation. If for example you're risk averse and know you're happy keeping it for 36 months, and will not deviate from the agreed mileage etc... take the lease. If you've got the cash, like some flexibility and don't think there's a risk, go cash. And if you're somewhere between, perhaps PCP is best.
 
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#34
phil4 said:
Cash, PCP, lease is all a matter of juggling risk, cost and flexibility to suit your taste.

Cash - highest cost, totally flexible you can trade in when you like or not, but also a reasonable risk... the car me be worth nothing in a few years.

Lease - lowest cost, not flexible at all, but no risk, you pay the price for the agreed term for the agreed miles and give the car back, doesn't matter what it's worth.

Those are the two ends of the spectrum. PCP sites in the middle.
The cost is mid way between, the flexibility is part way.. you can part ex part way though and settle or finance it at the end and keep it. And the risk is pretty low too, in that if at the end it's worthless you hand it back at no cost, and if it's worth more you keep it and trade it and make a profit.

So really you need to look at your situation. If for example you're risk averse and know you're happy keeping it for 36 months, and will not deviate from the agreed mileage etc... take the lease. If you've got the cash, like some flexibility and don't think there's a risk, go cash. And if you're somewhere between, perhaps PCP is best.
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Of course there is risk with a lease. With a lease you’re committing yourself to monthly payments for the duration of the lease, without a way to exit the contract early that doesn’t involve paying the remainder of outstanding monthly payments.

No problem if you feel employment and salary is stable for the period of the lease.

With a PCP you can get out early without paying significant sums of money (and you may even make a profit if doing it at the right time).
 
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#35
4 years ago I took a 4 year PCP deal on a MX. Residual was so strong there was £13.5k equity at the end and it didn't matter that I was 10k miles over the PCP allowance. Mileage only matters if you are handing the car back at the end. 4 year residual with 50k miles worked out at 64%.

15 months ago we bought a M3 LR outright cash. Just about to trade it in for the same price i.e. zero net cost, 100% residual with 14k miles. This car still had the benefit of the govt grant (£3k I think) so that did boost its residual, but it still would have been 94% residual even without the grant.

So leasing would be a non-starter for me in this market and I don't see it changing that much in the next few years. I think demand for used Teslas will remain strong. Software and some hardware can easily be upgraded and Tesla seem to be leveraging high prices for used cars. The market could change of course, but I think leasing is a bad bet today on a Tesla.
 
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#36
it’s a complete no brainier to go PCP or loan with any tesla at the moment, crazy residuals plus lease is a very bad option….

my last 3 cars have all been on 4 year pcp and i haven’t kept any of them longer than 2 years, touch wood i have always ended up with pretty positive equity towards another vehicle when sold early….my M3 i put a £7k deposit down and came out with +£12k 10 months later….the cost to me over that period was peanuts when taking interest into account
 
#37
Peteski said:
4 years ago I took a 4 year PCP deal on a MX. Residual was so strong there was £13.5k equity at the end and it didn't matter that I was 10k miles over the PCP allowance. Mileage only matters if you are handing the car back at the end. 4 year residual with 50k miles worked out at 64%.

15 months ago we bought a M3 LR outright cash. Just about to trade it in for the same price i.e. zero net cost, 100% residual with 14k miles. This car still had the benefit of the govt grant (£3k I think) so that did boost its residual, but it still would have been 94% residual even without the grant.

So leasing would be a non-starter for me in this market and I don't see it changing that much in the next few years. I think demand for used Teslas will remain strong. Software and some hardware can easily be upgraded and Tesla seem to be leveraging high prices for used cars. The market could change of course, but I think leasing is a bad bet today on a Tesla.
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Excellent experience. I have my Leasing quotes in but based on what I have read here I decided to get a PCP quote. I am looking at 36 months and 5k miles pa or in the PCP case 6K miles is their minimum. I have been trying to reconcile the cost of the PCP offer with their quoted flat rate and their representative APR. What ever approach I take in calculation, the numbers do not make sense. Any ideas folks?
 
#38
OliLondon said:
it’s a complete no brainier to go PCP or loan with any tesla at the moment, crazy residuals plus lease is a very bad option….

my last 3 cars have all been on 4 year pcp and i haven’t kept any of them longer than 2 years, touch wood i have always ended up with pretty positive equity towards another vehicle when sold early….my M3 i put a £7k deposit down and came out with +£12k 10 months later….the cost to me over that period was peanuts when taking interest into account
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Great! Did you understand the PCP numbers relative to the interest rates they quote in the deal?
 
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