Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[DanCar]

... I don't know where you are getting 6 times. ...

3 times in each direction to get their 3d maps just right. Sound familiar?

 

[diplomat33]

3 times in each direction to get their 3d maps just right. Sound familiar?

Well, like I said in my post, Waymo does repeat the route several times to make sure the map is accurate.

If you are going to do HD maps, you want to make sure they are correct, right?

 

[karlos22]

I think it makes more sense for Tesla to have Tesla customers own and manage their own "robotaxi". Tesla owners already have spaces to store, charge and maintain their cars. And Tesla owners can be safety drivers to handle any issues. So Tesla would not need remote assistance. So the more likely scenario in my mind is that Tesla creates their own ride-hailing app, like Uber. I seem to remember Elon even teasing a Tesla Network, like the Uber app. Tesla owners could be like Uber drivers and provide rides to people, and use FSD. We are seeing some Tesla Uber drivers already using FSD. And as FSD gets more reliable, the number of interventions will decrease. Eventually, Tesla owners may give rides and rarely need to intervene, except for the occasional "stall event" when FSD encounters an edge cases and does not know what to do. And Elon can always dangle the promise of FSD eventually being driverless in the future.

Yep, completely agree with this. It’s a logical first step for Tesla and robo taxis. Could be implemented very quickly too.

 

[alsetyledom280]

If Tesla really wants to ride AI theme and roll out robotaxi soon, there might be some way to gain trust from public quickly:

1. Tesla executives and board members take robotaxi to/from Palo Alto HQ to SFO (or Austin HQ to AUS) on regular basis.

2. Tesla opens up free and volunteer pickup and dropoff programs for employee and family with robotaxi for work and kids after school programs in Palo Alto and Austin.

With these 2 steps accomplished over reasonable miles driven under robotaxi, I think public will have a lot more trust on the safety and this robotaxi service will sure take off soon. Investors will reward Tesla handsomely in my view.

And Tesla can easily do this either in CA or TX. As long as regulation for robotaxi is cooperative (I see no reason why local gov will not work with Tesla on this).

It is harder to do this in Berlin or Shanghai, I would guess.

Such a move from Tesla may trigger waymo to cover more area from competition perspective, this is like chatgpt forced Google to be more risk taker.

In the end, such competition will work well for public and investors.

 

[Spalding]

Won't be a new car at all. They'll probably frame it as an advancement in FSD, slapped in a Model 3 (or whatever model they're making in 10+ years, when whatever it is finally gets released).
All the talk of it being the Model 2, or some kind of a 2-seater, seems wrong. A true announcement about development of the so-called Model 2 wouldn't need to be couched in terms of it being a "robotaxi" - that would be important enough news on its own. And a 2-seater taxi, "robo-" or otherwise, is pointless.

 

[phxazcraig]

Won't be a new car at all. They'll probably frame it as an advancement in FSD, slapped in a Model 3 (or whatever model they're making in 10+ years, when whatever it is finally gets released).
All the talk of it being the Model 2, or some kind of a 2-seater, seems wrong. A true announcement about development of the so-called Model 2 wouldn't need to be couched in terms of it being a "robotaxi" - that would be important enough news on its own. And a 2-seater taxi, "robo-" or otherwise, is pointless.

There are so many problems with the idea of turning a Model 3 into a taxi. For instance, the car pulls up to you and stops. You've never seen a Tesla door handle before, and so you don't know how to get in. And if it is dark you can't even see the handle.

I do wonder how luggage would be handled too. It's going to be interesting!

 

[MOE J]

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

Hmm a cut out of yr driver and smooth AI voice prompts. No steering per Se, active touch display screen, comfortable couch like seats, surround glass windows every where, ice cold water for customers, instrumental calming music, tv option with trending news/weather, display screen with total payment at end of yr ride.

 

[Jonez]

The Johnny Cab, Seems to me that RoboTaxis will be for specific routes i.e. Airport Terminals to nearby Hotels Rental cars other transport. It would be a logical first step, known routes repetitive, where other vehicles would fill in while others are charging.

 

[Omar Rios]

Millions of robotaxi capable vehicles on the road already.

 

[Midpack]

V12 is really good, but it’s nowhere near robotaxi capable. So like others have said, whatever they unveil on 8/8 will be years before realization.

I would expect it to be whatever the Model 2 was going to be, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they go back to a Model 2 with controls to tap into a wider addressable market (at the low $ end). It appears they’re beginning to tap out the Model 3 and up addressable market, such that it’ll just be replacements with few new adopters.

 

[diplomat33]

Spoiler alert: My Tesla Model 3 with “Full Self Driving” (FSD) will not be able to operate and collect revenue as a robotaxi this year. No Tesla will be able to do so, unless quite narrowly geofenced in order to launch something.

Additionally, there will be no new robotaxi vehicle for sale and no Tesla robotaxi operations with that vehicle. I know — Elon Musk said a robotaxi would be unveiled on August 8th (or 8/8, which has its own issues). When was the Tesla Roadster 2.0 unveiled? When was the Tesla Semi unveiled, and how many are on the road today? A Tesla model reveal party, historically, means that model is several years away from retail sales.

One could hypothesize that the August 8th robotaxi reveal event is largely a response to Q1 sales dropping, Tesla gross margins dropping, Tesla stock declining, and Elon Musk trying to pump up a Tesla stock revival. One could also argue that AI and self driving are Tesla’s last hopes to retain its stock price and market cap, that without some level of hope around those things, Tesla stock will crash back to a much lower level. Automakers typically have much, much lower P/E ratios that Tesla has right now. Without sales growth, or even without significant (+50% year over year) sales growth, Tesla’s extremely high P/E ratio must be connected to something else. So, it’s not outside the realm of reason to assume that this big robotaxi reveal is largely in response to Tesla’s sales and stock problems.

Or it may be that Tesla is simply ready now (in 4 months, that is) to unveil a robotaxi vehicle model concept. It may be that Elon Musk and others at Tesla are now so bullish about the FSD path they’re on that they want to roll out a new model they think will be used for robotaxi operation one day, and they are finally far enough along with that model to plan an unveiling event.

Tesla Will Not Have True Robotaxi Release This Year - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Spoiler alert: My Tesla Model 3 with “Full Self Driving” (FSD) will not be able to operate and collect revenue as a robotaxi this year. No Tesla will be able to do so, unless ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

 

[Dear_OP]

We already have 'em in the form of Uber/Lyft Model 3 drivers using FSD. They are everywhere. Many of them deliver foods too.

 

[Gospel]

It's gonna look likw a mixture between the Cyber Truck and Model X to hold multiple passengers comfortably, with easy entry doors and built like a tank for a sense of safety.

Image Generated using Chat GPT DALL-E because I have no talent at creating my own concepts.

 

[Joey D]

With their brain, movable eyes and movable head, ears and so on. Unfortunately the brain bit isn't yet available for machines.

Correct. That's the whole point of Vision based FSD. The car has 360 degree eyes...and the brain is "in training." Will it get there? I think it will eventually...but time will of course tell.

 

[spacecoin]

Correct. That's the whole point of Vision based FSD. The car has 360 degree eyes...and the brain is "in training." Will it get there? I think it will eventually...but time will of course tell.

By when do you expect cancer diagnosis in radiology to be unsupervised autonomous? Why is this relevant? It's a form a simpler computer vision application that still isn't autonomous. It's safety critical, but not time critical. It uses still images instead of video and real time decision making.

Waymo has hardware that sees about three football fields in all directions and in most weather, and they aren't still able to remove the human in the loop at highway speeds. Just saying.

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo has hardware that sees about three football fields in all directions and in most weather, and they aren't still able to remove the human in the loop at highway speeds. Just saying.

Waymo is doing driverless on highways now but it is for employees only right now.

 

[mborkow]

By when do you expect cancer diagnosis in radiology to be unsupervised autonomous? Why is this relevant? It's a form a simpler computer vision application that still isn't autonomous. It's safety critical, but not time critical. It uses still images instead of video and real time decision making.

Waymo has hardware that sees about three football fields in all directions and in most weather, and they aren't still able to remove the human in the loop at highway speeds. Just saying.

Great analogy. FSD supervised isn’t anywhere near ready. I’ve only taken it for a few drives and twice it’s told me I had to take over immediately; once while entering a highway and once on surface streets. There is *no* chance this current iteration of hardware/software becomes driverless.

 

[DanCar]

.... There is *no* chance this current iteration of hardware/software becomes driverless.

Contrast that with the many shills on twitter saying v12 is going to send Tesla stock to $1 trillion in value.

 

[mborkow]

Contrast that with the many shills on twitter saying v12 is going to send Tesla stock to $1 trillion in value.

They must be either vested share holders or never tested FSD!

 

[Ocelot]

I am just curios with respect to timing. I personally have found the length of time between announcements and action to be too long. It gives way to much power to the media to keep talking about how this or that would never happen. I do not see FSD in the next year happening (could be wrong) and would like to see maybe a 6 month or max one year gap between announcing products and getting them out there. Model x was what 5 years? Cybertruck , same?