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This is my last post in this thread.. if I'm wrong and Trump is impeached I'll come back to this thread and eat all the crow.
The odds of Trump being impeached approach 100%. If he isn't, he still won't get re-elected.

But if I'm right, you will see 3+% GDP being the new floor and gop holding both house and Senate in Nov.
You're wrong. The numbers are astoundingly clear on this. Nobody at all thinks the GOP will hold both the House and the Senate any more, not even the GOP leadership; Republicans are declining to run for re-election rather than get wiped out in the highly predictable wave.

That second amendment makes it impossible to take any of the others from us.
That's what the Black Panther Party thought. Having researched the history of the 2nd amendment, it was copied from the English Bill of Rights -- and the provision in the English Bill of Rights was designed, in its original context, very specifically and explicitly to protect groups *exactly* like the Black Panther Party.

Look up what happened to them.
 
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I feel Trump is trying hard to negotiate a fair trade. It's urgent and quite important for the nation's long term future. Currently US has $500B trade deficit each year, that's -$500,000,000,000. What did other Presidents do to address it, other than getting us into 20 trillion dollars of debt? Some say the $400B trade deficit with China is structural and fair. I think only part of that is true. Many of those rules were set up long time ago to protect their fragile industries. But things have changed a lot in the last 15 years. A fair trade should benefit both sides.
I agree with the last part. IMO, the global economy was created by U.S. post WWII trade policies which sought to get away from damaging tariffs and drive the world towards open markets. We kept our thumb on the scale since we had both military and economic advantages over anyone else. It's been "USA first" for decades. After the devastation of WWII, USA comprised something like 65% of global GDP. But there was a vision and strategy and process to moving the world economy towards economic cooperation, not trade wars; from bequeathing MFN status, GATT and finally the WTO. We were the grownups (mostly, although we screwed South America in the 90's IMO) and the stability that came with the steady exercise of our "soft power" also grew our own economy.
Trump's approach of throwing out norms of governing, diplomacy and trade negotiations (and losing those in his own admin who know a thing or two) may seem to work short term. It may be good optics politically for people who want to stick it to China.
But who's strategically more capable? Who actually has a strategy?
Who's got Trump's number and can play him like a bamboo flute?

I expect China to give appearances of capitulating and give Trump some meaningless "win" while continuing the process of isolating Japan, Southeast Asia and Australia from U.S influence. Part of the strategy of TPP was to try and circumvent this as much as possible.
Now it's the wild west. China's probably not going to be directly confrontational. Perhaps keep us busy by taking away business; increasing economic ties with Mexico, our second largest trading partner but a constant Trump whipping boy, seems like a good option. China will appear as the grownups and grow their economic influence and increase their soft power while Trump offers instability and U.S. trade policy by Tweet. When the world sees the U.S. president as an imperious child it diminishes our ability to guide toward long lasting trade policies that benefit us. To China, this is a gift.
I think the "trade war" is nothing but a blip. The Chinese are playing the long game, always have.
 
You're wrong. The numbers are astoundingly clear on this. Nobody at all thinks the GOP will hold both the House and the Senate any more, not even the GOP leadership; Republicans are declining to run for re-election rather than get wiped out in the highly predictable wave.

I would like to ad how glad we are that you are back. I almost wrote a pm inquiring about your absence but guessed at some reasons you gave. I join all others in wishing your health problems if not over are under control and you are feeling better.

For whatever it's worth concerning the quote above, I'm not at all sanguine about the so-called Democratic wave. Surely the dam of unmet business and human reactions to vicious attacks from the right, portend change. But, Republican efforts to suppress the vote and extremely rickety and insecure vote counting in many districts might be sufficient to actually nullify the Dems expected advantage. Color me paranoid, yes. What the country has going for it against this unspeakable venality is those who live by images alone neglect underlying discontent at their peril. They think PR is all that matters.

In case you missed it, here's something from the NYT I shared with my luncheon brain trust about recent research on authoritarianism.

Opinion | The Contract With Authoritarianism

When one hears the venerable David Gergen saying on TV that democracy is in peril, one begins to wonder. We are truly reliving the thirties, but from the German side and without the benefit of an FDR. (Weird that Trump seems to have a problem with mustaches.:rolleyes:) Not a prediction: we'll know I'm right when Bolton starts trimming his—the boss doesn't like it.
 
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I agree with the last part. IMO, the global economy was created by U.S. post WWII trade policies which sought to get away from damaging tariffs and drive the world towards open markets. We kept our thumb on the scale since we had both military and economic advantages over anyone else. It's been "USA first" for decades. After the devastation of WWII, USA comprised something like 65% of global GDP. But there was a vision and strategy and process to moving the world economy towards economic cooperation, not trade wars; from bequeathing MFN status, GATT and finally the WTO. We were the grownups (mostly, although we screwed South America in the 90's IMO) and the stability that came with the steady exercise of our "soft power" also grew our own economy.
Trump's approach of throwing out norms of governing, diplomacy and trade negotiations (and losing those in his own admin who know a thing or two) may seem to work short term. It may be good optics politically for people who want to stick it to China.
But who's strategically more capable? Who actually has a strategy?
Who's got Trump's number and can play him like a bamboo flute?

I expect China to give appearances of capitulating and give Trump some meaningless "win" while continuing the process of isolating Japan, Southeast Asia and Australia from U.S influence. Part of the strategy of TPP was to try and circumvent this as much as possible.
Now it's the wild west. China's probably not going to be directly confrontational. Perhaps keep us busy by taking away business; increasing economic ties with Mexico, our second largest trading partner but a constant Trump whipping boy, seems like a good option. China will appear as the grownups and grow their economic influence and increase their soft power while Trump offers instability and U.S. trade policy by Tweet. When the world sees the U.S. president as an imperious child it diminishes our ability to guide toward long lasting trade policies that benefit us. To China, this is a gift.
I think the "trade war" is nothing but a blip. The Chinese are playing the long game, always have.

I would have to disagree with this. China has been stealing IP for a long time, western companies simply put up with it due to advantages of being able to enter their economy. I doubt that any country or company likes the idea of sharing their IP.. on the other hand, China is a recipient of critical IP, they also manufacture a lot of fakes/replicas (basically stealing), by this I don’t think they are acting like adults or playing the long game as you say, instead it’s make a quick buck, fast money and disregard intellectual property belonging to others. Thier actions tarnishes world relations and making them a target of constant attacks of unfair trade practices, which they deserve.

I agree with you on Trump regarding tweeting, but I would argue his presidency will be a short one and the US will remain a world leader regardless. Our structure of government is too strong and historically been too good to be taken down by four meaningless years.

The question is, how do we defeat China through trade relations?
 
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The question is, how do we defeat China through trade relations?

I know what you mean and there are threats posed by China, but defeat is inappropriate with at least three countries I can think of. The U.S. cannot be defeated, nor can China, and in spades we know that to be true for Russia as well. Their populations can be destroyed by nuclear weapons which provides a key for dealing with each other—say, on nuclear arms control, say, on letting the South and North Koreans negotiate a peace treaty, followed by a non-aggression pact, followed by a weapons accord which might include denuclearization.

The problem with Trump and the current mood of our country is we think in zero-sum terms. Xi was open to changing China's practices, but through diplomacy, and that might not have been much, but it was not seriously considered. China has delivered Kim to Moon all wrapped up in denuclearization as a concept. Instead of complimenting his good friend, Trump has shifted ground once again. Maybe this is his way of scotching in advance any concessions to N. Korea at the scheduled meeting in May, which I now think is less likely to occur.

But here we are squaring the circle by imposing our rational thought on a man who prides himself and needs daily if not hourly confirmation of his worth. I cannot imagine a more insecure person. Have you ever tried to argue with a potential suicide, or talked to a peacock? For the record, I've never talked to a peacock. I have suggested to a suicide threatener, "please let me know when and where, I want to watch." Not an advice. In another case the great difficulty was in getting a man's wife and his lover to shut up and let him talk. They kept reminding him he was talking about suicide, I guess because they wanted to watch. Decades later he was successful. But I digress again.

This is but the skim of past murk.
 
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I know what you mean and there are threats posed by China, but defeat is inappropriate with at least three countries I can think of. The U.S. cannot be defeated, nor can China, and in spades we know that to be true for Russia as well. Their populations can be destroyed by nuclear weapons which provides a key for dealing with each other—say, on nuclear arms control, say, on letting the South and North Koreans negotiate a peace treaty, followed by a non-aggression pact, followed by a weapons accord which might include denuclearization.

The problem with Trump and the current mood of our country is we think in zero-sum terms. Xi was open to changing China's practices, but through diplomacy, and that might not have been much, but it was not seriously considered. China has delivered Kim to Moon all wrapped up in denuclearization as a concept. Instead of complimenting his good friend, Trump has shifted ground once again. Maybe this is his way of scotching in advance any concessions to N. Korea at the scheduled meeting in May, which I now think is less likely to occur.

But here we are squaring the circle by imposing our rational thought on a man who prides himself and needs daily if not hourly confirmation of his worth. I cannot imagine a more insecure person. Have you ever tried to argue with a potential suicide, or talked to a peacock? For the record, I've never talked to a peacock. I have suggested to a suicide threatener, "please let me know when and where, I want to watch." Not an advice. In another case the great difficulty was in getting a man's wife and his lover to shut up and let him talk. They kept reminding him he was talking about suicide, I guess because they wanted to watch. Decades later he was successful. But I digress again.

This is but the skim of past murk.

Let me rephrase, how do we even out the playing field with China in regards to fair trade?
 
The odds of Trump being impeached approach 100%. If he isn't, he still won't get re-elected.


You're wrong. The numbers are astoundingly clear on this. Nobody at all thinks the GOP will hold both the House and the Senate any more, not even the GOP leadership; Republicans are declining to run for re-election rather than get wiped out in the highly predictable wave.


That's what the Black Panther Party thought. Having researched the history of the 2nd amendment, it was copied from the English Bill of Rights -- and the provision in the English Bill of Rights was designed, in its original context, very specifically and explicitly to protect groups *exactly* like the Black Panther Party.

Look up what happened to them.

Does the black panther party have 50 million members? Come for their guns without having them vote on the a repeal of the second amendment at your own peril. There are like 266 million guns in the US. It is this deterrent that stops tyranny.

The black panther party was militant and so are some armed militia out there. You won't see 50 million really to their support because they are not militants. But come for their rights and it might be a different story.

And LoL at the impeachment talk. Good luck with that. You realize you need an actual crime to have been committed in office then you need cash majorities of the house and Senate. And then what? You think the Trump is stepping down? LoL. I'll happily eat a player full of crow if he is impeached. He is a jerk and crude, but that's not impeachable.

Good to have the old neo back. 17 dislikes overnight. 5 likes though. I think you are 30% or more of my negative feedback and yet I missed you.
 
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Sorry but that is BS. You you think bringing rifles to a tank/drone fight is anything but suicide then think again. Tyranny is not deterred by violence and never was. Determination of broad masses on the other hand...
Really. The American military will kill civilians in mass? They are in fact mostly gun owning Americans. Good luck with.. "I was just following orders."
 
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Really. The American military will kill civilians in mass? They are in fact mostly gun owning Americans. Good luck with.. "I was just following orders."
As I said, its not guns that make the difference but determination of the broad masses. Mind you I have plenty guns myself but thinking that they change anything at all when it comes suppression is an illusion in my book.
 
As I said, its not guns that make the difference but determination of the broad masses. Mind you I have plenty guns myself but thinking that they change anything at all when it comes suppression is an illusion in my book.

I'm sure there is some tyranny you wouldn't put up with. Like if the government started to take away the first few amendments. Outlawing speech that they find disagreeable and gun ownership for example. In some places this had already happened. College campuses for example.
 
Of course there are many form of tyranny I would not put up with. But if I show up with a gun and even start shooting then government has a reason to put me down. If however I and tons of others show up without violence and demand something this is a very different thing. Just look how Gandhi overturned British suppression in India. And yes, have a look at how much power the students have because they have a non-violent protest.
 
Really. The American military will kill civilians in mass? They are in fact mostly gun owning Americans. Good luck with.. "I was just following orders."
But that's the point. If the military wouldn't go along with the orders then there is no force to fight and no need for your guns. If the military does go along with the orders and come to take your guns you are far and away out gunned and they will take them. In either case your guns aren't going to prevent anything. Plus the simple fact that the 2nd amendment applies to a well regulated militia, i.e. regulated by the government, as Hamilton further explains in Federalist Paper 29.
 
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Our courts have a mixed record on absolutism and rights. Few now dispute that some speech, for example, can be regulated. (Laws against slander and libel, for example.) But its limitations on gun ownership were expanded in a relatively recent court case which former justice Stephens recently condemned as he did in his earlier dissent when on the bench. The same is true also of expanding speech to include money which had the expected nefarious effect on the sanctity of elections today.
 
But that's the point. If the military wouldn't go along with the orders then there is no force to fight and no need for your guns. If the military does go along with the orders and come to take your guns you are far and away out gunned and they will take them. In either case your guns aren't going to prevent anything. Plus the simple fact that the 2nd amendment applies to a well regulated militia, i.e. regulated by the government, as Hamilton further explains in Federalist Paper 29.

You are wrong. A troop might put you an interment camp, but he wont kill you. If you have a gun to protect yourself, they wont have a choice but to either kill or refuse the order. Its a big different to take a life vs taking someones freedom.

Gun owners are well regulated and they are peaceful and dont commit most of the crimes. Most gun crimes are committed by people with illegal guns. If you are saying its a good idea to disarm the law biding citizens of the country, you will leave them without any defense against the lawless.

I dont own a gun and never have btw. But I get it. I am happy to know there are a lot of well armed people that I believe are good people. My neighbors when I lived in California were all either Cops, Military or both. I never felt so safe in my life. I always find that neighbor with the guns and befriend them, encase there is a zombie apocalypses. I am 6'4", 250lbs on a good day so I never felt like I needed a gun, but If I thought I needed one to protect my family, I certainly would get one. My wife just wont let us live where there has been a crime committed within the decade (J/K she is not that bad, but pretty close)
 
You are wrong. A troop might put you an interment camp, but he wont kill you. If you have a gun to protect yourself, they wont have a choice but to either kill or refuse the order. Its a big different to take a life vs taking someones freedom.

Yet police shoot at citizens quite often. It doesn't seem to be the barrier you wish it to be.

Gun owners are well regulated and they are peaceful and dont commit most of the crimes.

Depends on what you consider a crime. Shooting yourself or someone you know is statistically the most likely consequence of owning a gun, not stopping a criminal.

Most gun crimes are committed by people with illegal guns.

People who own illegal guns are still gun owners.

If you are saying its a good idea to disarm the law biding citizens of the country, you will leave them without any defense against the lawless.

You'd also leave them without the means to injure themselves or people they know, which is statistically the more likely event. Bottom line, people who don't have guns are safer. However I never said it's a good idea to disarm citizens. I'm simply pointing out the fantasy of defending oneself against the government is not realistic for the reasons outlined in my previous post.

I dont own a gun and never have btw. But I get it. I am happy to know there are a lot of well armed people that I believe are good people.

Good people make really bad decisions all the time. Most of the time it's not with a deadly weapon in their hands.

My neighbors when I lived in California were all either Cops, Military or both. I never felt so safe in my life.

Sure, well trained, regulated people with guns are probably safer than your average Joe who took a quick course and spent a day at a firing range and then stuck his gun in a drawer next to his bed. If you look at society in general today do you really think most people are responsible enough to have easily available weapons without extensive regulation and oversight? I don't.
 
Good people make really bad decisions all the time. Most of the time it's not with a deadly weapon in their hands.

Yeah, they also make good decisions with their guns. How many crimes have been stopped and how many people saved themselves and their families. I am not going to get into a gun debate. Im done with this.

If you think that someone can take away an Americans constitutional rights, you would be sadly mistaken. Americans are to well armed to take anything so fundamental. Now if enough Americans vote to change the constitution, then so be it. I would be supportive of that. We have a system in place to handle these things and thus far its worked.
 
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Yeah, they also make good decisions with their guns. How many crimes have been stopped and how many people saved themselves and their families.

Fewer than have been injured and killed unintentionally. Again, it's a statistical fact that owning a gun makes you less safe.

I am not going to get into a gun debate. Im done with this.

Good.

If you think that someone can take away an Americans constitutional rights, you would be sadly mistaken. Americans are to well armed to take anything so fundamental. Now if enough Americans vote to change the constitution, then so be it. I would be supportive of that. We have a system in place to handle these things and thus far its worked.

I've already explained why being armed has no effect on taking away rights or guns. I've also explained why you and many people don't understand the 2nd Amendment at all and why no Constitutional change is needed to regulate the ownership of firearms. The 2nd Amendment was specifically created to have a militia instead of a professional standing army. Long ago we realized that a highly trained professional fighting force is necessary and a militia is not.

"A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

The first part has been determined to be unnecessary.
 
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