Market politics

[TheTalkingMule]

Would you mind posting a link to the source that makes you think the Gang of Six plan was a done deal in July of 2011?

One of the links in my posting... Can the Gang of Six’s plan pass? Was written July 20, 2011. The author wrote,
"The Gang of Six's plan -- though fairly detailed for this sort of thing, hasn't been drafted into legislation yet. It hasn't been sent to the Congressional Budget Office. The rest of the Senate -- much less the House -- hasn't been briefed on it in detail, with staffs answering questions back-and-forth and legislators reaching out to the people they trust for analysis. There's a lot of work left to be done here."

It had the support of an estimated 60 Senators, the WH and a bit less than half the House. They needed Boehner to get on board and the press conf was ready to go, but at the last minute he folded to House pressure. Basically they had a deal that could have been rammed through the House, but we didn't have Newt Gingrich there to do the ramming.

Things were looking good in May/June, the deal was all but done in July, then the Tea Partiers pushed the House GOP to stonewall. And here we are 7 years later with deficits creeping back toward $1T+. Yay!

 

[sundaymorning]

I think this could be similar to the 2013 dip between Sep to Nov from $193 down to $127 with the fires, then by Feb 2014 it's at $244. Charts didn't predict the fatal accident and government investigation, and it won't predict any unexpected jumps in M3 ramp either.

This is vintage Tesla, the looming Macros is dragging everyone down, just like it did during Greece, Brexit, Rusia/Ukraine. My view is that this will all pass, Tesla will be self sustaining soon so there is no reason to panic. China doesn’t want a trade war, both parties are negotiating terms right now. A correction once a year is helpful in resetting expectations.

 

[Sean Wagner]

...China doesn’t want a trade war, both parties are negotiating terms right now. A correction once a year is helpful in resetting expectations.

Oh but the toddler in the White House counting everyone's lollies wants one, and has a lot more "macro" mayhem in store.
In his view, 800-900 is worse than 100-150.

And all that while handing Xi of the communist party the biggest schtick one could wish for - a gigantic budget deficit [during an upswing to boot] that needs financing. If China is pushed too hard and decides to graze that button, the markets will go into a seizure like we haven't seen in a long time, and ten of the biggest possible lies will be tweeted to lay the responsibility on anyone but his gibbering loonness.

One can only hope they remember their Sun Tzu: 'When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard'.

The US doesn't belong to the first world anymore, and banana republic is inscribed on the current president's trajectory.

I never imagined writing anything remotely like this just a few years ago. Wakey wakey, America.

 

[sundaymorning]

Oh but the toddler in the White House counting everyone's lollies wants one, and has a lot more "macro" mayhem in store.
In his view, 800-900 is worse than 100-150.

And all that while handing Xi of the communist party the biggest schtick one could wish for - a gigantic budget deficit [during an upswing to boot] that needs financing. If China is pushed too hard and decides to graze that button, the markets will go into a seizure like we haven't seen in a long time, and ten of the biggest possible lies will be tweeted to lay the responsibility on anyone but his gibbering loonness.

One can only hope they remember their Sun Tzu: 'When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard'.

The US doesn't belong to the first world anymore, and banana republic is inscribed on the current president's trajectory.

I never imagined writing anything remotely like this just a few years ago. Wakey wakey, America.

I’m not a Trump supporter, but I know his bargaining chip and I stand behind the president in his decision to renegotiate the trade balance. He likely does not want a trade war, he has businesses in China and over 100 trademarks:

Trump's Biggest Potential Conflict Of Interest Is Hiding In Plain Sight

He used the same hardline methodology to include Europe and Canada in the steel tarrifs, but in the end they were excluded. The US is simply trying to rebalance trade, and China has shown some cooperation by offering to buy US made semi conductors. A sign we are headed in the right direction.

China offers to buy more US semiconductors to cut its trade surplus

 

[Sean Wagner]

We've had no problems financing the total deficit in traded goods [as apart from services] for over a generation.

Because the US could attract capital and top notch people with ease - signal and much envied advantages that are being flushed down the drain by the present administration.

Tariffs with a wide range of countries would have been lowered/abolished under both trade agreements so hastily torn up [TTIP and TPP]. That would have provided enormous leverage for talks with China.

But talking coherently seems to be a sign of weakness now. Better start breaking things.

Most importantly, how is "massaged trade" supposed to work? Are you going to acquiesce being forced to buy inferior products? [Because that's one of the guaranteed effects of firms being "alloted" unwilling customers.]

How about America start concentrating on actually selling more high-value added, competitive products on the gigantic world market?

The Ford Mustang shows it can be done [even in Germany], but is an outlier.
Surge in Exports Makes Ford Mustang Best-Selling Sports Car on the Planet for 2016 | Ford Media Center

 

[TheTalkingMule]

These simpletons don't even understand that China's been prepping to deal with this for 30 years.

It'll be interesting to see what happens when China stops buying debt now that we've decided to go back to $1.5T deficits. I'm sure we can just take solact in moving China and Mexico's trade deficits by $20-40B. Whoo hoo!

 

[Thumper]

Keep in mind that we are headed to a constitutional crisis. Either Trump is impeached in the next few months, or his behavior is documented with witnesses and hard evidence, and he is NOT impeached. Either one is a cause of instability and uncertainty. One of those WILL happen.

 

[Intl Professor]

I've posted this earlier on the macro thread, so here it goes again before GGR moves me.

"Warning: A diarrhea of bad news ahead.

There are additional markers due to Mueller investigation. One example. Haven't digested morning news as yet, but fully expect today's news the basic claim Manafort has for Mueller straying is not valid because of early and specific authorization to investigate Manafort connection to Ukraine validly authorized by higher authority (Rosenstein) and as related to Russia investigation.

Justice Department authorized Robert Mueller to investigate Paul Manafort's work for Ukraine

Manafort's lawyers should advise their client conviction is certain, best to seek plea deal soonest. Watch out for the coming shoe drop!

Edit: Of course before this happens, Trump might pardon Manafort. Effect on the market would be the same whichever happens first, so Trump must act soonerest to avoid a double-dip. (Sorry, with age my brain is more elastic than the language.) Of course, just trying to compliment our "exquisite leader", to borrow a phrase from Mike Pence, for thinking ahead. Alternatively, and back to a scientific understanding of the source of tweets, the President's actions depend on the flora in his bowels combined with the latest from Fox News."

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I am worried about Chinese tariffs on US car imports however

 

[Sean Wagner]

Oh but the toddler in the White House counting everyone's lollies wants one, and has a lot more "macro" mayhem in store.
In his view, 800-900 is worse than 100-150.

And all that while handing Xi of the communist party the biggest schtick one could wish for - a gigantic budget deficit [during an upswing to boot] that needs financing.

We have none of our erstwhile allies - many of whom share our grievances - at least in the loop.
We have no plan, although that would have been so easy - hence nothing to talk about and no way forward.
We have a gigantic "fail" button that can convulse the world - but turn it upside down too, and leave China to emerge riding on top.
They want that badly, and are only shrewdly and patiently gauging the interim damage and pain.

The toddler doesn't want to talk first: he needs damage, confrontation, and a state of constant turmoil.
Classic agitprop, and lies taller than you first think will go down - and that is the true danger to the Republic he poses.

So instead of removing the tariffs Tesla faces, it's all going the other direction, while China is sucking in billions in support of its quest to dominate key future industries like transportation.

Update by way of the FT:
Subscribe to read

Yuan Yang and Alice Woodhouse 49 MINUTES AGO Print this page
China has said it will impose tariffs on 106 products originating from the United States, according to an announcement on state television on Wednesday, in response to tariffs on Chinese imports outlined hours earlier by the US.

CCTV said:

The Tariff Commission of the State Council has decided to impose an additional tariff of 25% on 14 categories of 106 products such as soybeans, automobiles, and chemical products originating in the United States.

The implementation date will be determined by the implementation of the US government's additional tariffs on Chinese products, and will be announced separately.

 

[Reciprocity]

We have none of our erstwhile allies - many of whom share our grievances - at least in the loop.
We have no plan, although that would have been so easy - hence nothing to talk about and no way forward.
We have a gigantic "fail" button that can convulse the world - but turn it upside down too, and leave China to emerge riding on top.
They want that badly, and are only shrewdly and patiently gauging the interim damage and pain.

The toddler doesn't want to talk first: he needs damage, confrontation, and a state of constant turmoil.
Classic agitprop, and lies taller than you first think will go down - and that is the true danger to the Republic he poses.

So instead of removing the tariffs Tesla faces, it's all going the other direction, while China is sucking in billions in support of its quest to dominate key future industries like transportation.

Update by way of the FT:
Subscribe to read

Yuan Yang and Alice Woodhouse 49 MINUTES AGO Print this page
China has said it will impose tariffs on 106 products originating from the United States, according to an announcement on state television on Wednesday, in response to tariffs on Chinese imports outlined hours earlier by the US.

CCTV said:

The Tariff Commission of the State Council has decided to impose an additional tariff of 25% on 14 categories of 106 products such as soybeans, automobiles, and chemical products originating in the United States.

The implementation date will be determined by the implementation of the US government's additional tariffs on Chinese products, and will be announced separately.

So China's existing tariff on us cars is going from 25% to 50% vs our tariffs on their cars, which no one wants, is 2.5%. if you want to avoid those tariffs you only have to give China half your company in China, including all your technology used in that operation. I mean, it's hard not to give your partner the keys to the factory they own.

Why does China hate Tesla so much? This tariff is basically a Tesla only tariff. Don't they realize that Trump and the EPA hate Tesla? If they wanted to send a message to Trump they would raise the tariff of all but Tesla and lower it on Tesla. That would really make Trump mad, right? You would think that they want as many EVs as possible as their citizens choke on the air pollution created by all those exports. China is not big on the happiness or health of it's people I guess.

Let's not forget here, the trade deficits is $500B+. We dont send much there. Taxing soy beans and pork will hurt their own citizens by raising all the prices for those products in China and all the products made from those commodities. I know China can just drive a tank down your street to shut you up if you complain about anything, so I'm sure they will be ok. Hungry, broke, but happily silent.

Don't worry to much, this is all really face saving posturing. I'm sure Trump is winning in the negotiations. That or more tariffs are coming for Chinese goods.

 

[EngRyan]

Market is down across the board in after hours trading. DOW down 400 ish points thanks to Trumps latest China tariff tweet. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow.

 

[bdy0627]

Futures are down on new tariffs from Trump.

 

[EngRyan]

Sorry not a tweet, for once.

 

[AZRI11]

Trump is an idiot. Wag the dog. He is to chicken to start a real war, instead we now have a trade war. Idiocracy.

 

[Richgoogol]

Trump asks for $100 billion in additional tariffs on Chinese products Trump asks for $100 billion in additional tariffs on Chinese products

 

[Dennisj00]

Thank God he’s not starting a real war!

 

[bdy0627]

Trump is an idiot. Wag the dog. He is to chicken to start a real war, instead we now have a trade war. Idiocracy.

Our country is being run by someone who is simultaneously battling a porn star and China. And I'm trying to make trading decisions with that kind of B.S. in the background. You can't make this stuff up.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Our country is being run by someone who is simultaneously battling a porn star and China. And I'm trying to make trading decisions with that kind of B.S. in the background. You can't make this stuff up.

I believe that Donald Trump actually reflects the true values and attitudes of much of the United States population.

In terms of relevance to trading: unexpected and ridiculous things will happen.

 

[RobStark]

Trump is an idiot. Wag the dog. He is to chicken to start a real war, instead we now have a trade war. Idiocracy.

So Trump should Nuke Iran and North Korea to prove he is a Hawk and not a Chicken?