The recent fires on oil tankers east of Oman are definitely bad news. The US is blaming Iran, with absolutely zero evidence. Iran has stated flatly that they didn't do it, and that they are being framed, and Iran is certainly telling the truth: they had no motivation.'
The country which did have motivation is Saudi Arabia. They need to raise the oil price by scaring oil markets. And they have been picking a stupid and unnecessary fight with Iran for nutty reasons for years, so they have a motivation to frame Iran. Plus they want to distract the US from their murder of journalists.
Cicero always said, in detective work, "Who benefits?" Saudi Arabia is the only country which benefits, and it benefits in numerous ways. It also had means and opportunity, in addition to motive.
Saudi Arabia fired at those ships -- count on it.
I think this is a sign that Saudi Arabia is even more unstable than I thought, and I thought it was extremely unstable. Rumor has it that Kashoggi was murdered because he was going to reveal documents showing that the Saudis had smaller oil reserves than they claimed (something which many many people suspected already). Now, the Saudis have resorted to shooting at their own, and UAE, tankers in order to try to drive the oil price up. These are moves of total desperation.
Already, they stopped being able to borrow in their own currency, and now they have trouble borrowing in dollars. Foreign firms now demand a large risk premium to work in Saudi Arabia, which is why the UAE can build big solar farms cheaply, and Saudi Arabia can't get them built at all. MBS has trapped the country in an unwinnable guerrilla war in Yemen for no obvious reason -- and while he's committing war crimes, the Yemenis are able to lob rockets at Riyadh, showing his total ineffectiveness. Attempts to raise taxes have not balanced the budget, but have caused more people to demand a voice in the government. Rumors have it that the Saudis can't balance their budget unless the oil price goes up signficantly.
This is on top of the long-festering conflicts between the Wahhabi religious theocracy leadership and the Royal Family, between the Shia population of the oil producing district and the Sunnis running the country, between the "guest workers" and the Saudi nationals, between the bored Saudi nationals and the royal family, between the bored Saudi nationals and the Wahhabi leadership, between the oppressed women and the male leadership, between the forces calling for civil society and the royals, between the forces calling for civil society and the Wahhabis, etc. etc. It's been a tinder keg for a long time.
But now I really think it's on the verge of utter, total collapse. Could collapse literally any day now.
Hopefully the US will avoid getting into an idiotic war with Iran based on a Saudi false-flag attack.
