Market politics

[wdolson]

That could be a tactical mistake since Sanders could easily out debate Trump while Biden, not so much these days.

I don't agree. If the debates happen, which I doubt Trump will agree, Biden will get in Trump's face every time Trump tries to pull a stunt. You will see Biden say something along the lines of "there you go again" like Reagan did in 1980.

Biden is very good at dealing with bullies and that's the only tool in Trump's toolbox. Bernie is a policy wonk and Trump will do everything he could to derail the debate dragging it away from the issues which is Bernie's strength and make it all about Bernie being a socialist.

Are such pages regularly invaded by mole-troll Trumpists? Or Russians? If not...why not? Surely throwing in material like that would be right up their alley?

It's a closed group that requires approval to join. It's not an unusual thought amongst this crowd. They're pissed right now!

You always have to wonder with these things if it is a Russian troll. And even in a closed group it isn't guaranteed that it isn't unless it's a closed group that requires a new member to be recommended by someone who knows them in the real world. The Russian troll farms are playing the long game in places too.

Every election cycle when a candidate with a strong, but minority following becomes unviable (their route to the nomination becomes impossible) there are always some followers who say "I will not vote for the nominee!", but in the end 70% of Bernie voters in 2016 voted for Hillary in the general. About 13% voted third party or not at all and about 12% crossed over to Trump. The 12% who crossed over might have had quite a few strategic voters who were just voting in the Democratic primaries to weaken Hillary or derail her nomination.

Not all Bernie supporters will vote for Biden in November, but the majority will probably hold their noses and vote for Biden because the alternative is so much worse.

Hillary 2.0

2020 is a very different environment than 2016. In 2016 the economy was good, there were no big crises going on. Democrats were deciding between whether we were going to take a swing to the left or continue the more moderate route. The intellectual debate was something people had the bandwidth to handle.

The Democratic nomination in 2016 was not an existential crisis, it was seen as something of a cross roads, a decision point. This year is an existential crisis. The big question is who can beat Donald Trump and end the madness. Obviously the Sanders supporters think it's their guy, but the bulk of Democratic voters are running for the safe candidate.

Young people will not come to vote for Biden like they did for Obama.

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Young voters never turn out in big numbers. The youth vote was higher in 2008, but that was because it was higher for every demographic.

Scroll down to see the turnout by age chart:
Voter Turnout Demographics - United States Elections Project

The reality of the carefree attitude toward COVID-19 may have a big impact on the number of 65+ voters whom also tend to vote Republican... election is still more than half a year away, think about that...

The odds that everybody in this country are going to get COVID-19 is very high. It has characteristics that are absolutely ideal for universal spread. Those over 65 are at much higher risk to have a bad case. By November the over 65s could be completely traumatized by the mismanagement of the Trump administration.

This is also squaring up to be a very rough year economically. When the economy crashed on GW, already had a bad approval rating, but it dropped down to 25%.

I've said it before, but it's worth repeating. A re-election is always first and foremost an initiative about the incumbent. All you have to be is a better alternative to the incumbent.

 

[dmunjal]

Young voters never turn out in big numbers. The youth vote was higher in 2008, but that was because it was higher for every demographic.

Youth vote is lower than in 2016. Not good for the Democrats. If progressives also stay home, Trump wins.

The youth vote goes missing in 2020 Democratic primaries

 

[wdolson]

Youth vote is lower than in 2016. Not good for the Democrats. If progressives also stay home, Trump wins.

The youth vote goes missing in 2020 Democratic primaries

Don't underestimate guilt. There were a lot of would be Democratic voters who did not like Hillary, figured she would win anyway, and decided to vote third party or not at all. Most of those people feel very guilty now. Trump won by 23,000 votes in Wisconsin. Jill Stein got 31K votes there and there were 22K write ins. In Michigan the difference was less than 11K and Jill Stein got 51K votes. Pennsylvania same story, 45K difference and Jill Stein got just shy of 50K votes. Turnout was down in most of the Democratic parts of all three states.

Rachel Bitecofer pointed out the shift in the suburb vote is generational. The oldest Millennials are 40 this year. The older part of that generation have finally begun to have kids and move to the suburbs. Older Millennial women especially are completely freaked out by Donald Trump as well as the Republicans and driven to vote for any Democrat. That does bode well for future elections if suburbs go solid blue and stay that way.

According to the article you posted, the youth vote this year falls in between 2012 and 2016. Bernie's ascendancy in 2016 got younger voters out, but they seem less enthusiastic for him, and for voting in general this year.

As neroden pointed out, the peak conservative birth year among the post WW II generations is 1974. Each year gets more conservative until 1974, then starts to liberalize again. There was an interesting study about 10 years ago that compared each birth year's lifelong voting patterns compared to who was president the year they were first allowed to vote. Eisenhower, Reagan, and George HW Bush produced cohorts of reliable Republican voters while every other president created reliable Democratic voters. They found the scandals of the Nixon and GW Bush eras tended to turn the youth away from the Republicans. This was a while back so they only had preliminary data on Obama, but while he solidified older voters against him, the younger voters are pretty reliable Democratic voters. Trump is almost certainly going to continue the trend.

When the generations who came of age from Clinton on become the core of the electorate, I don't see where the Republicans are going to have much of a base to mount national campaigns. Rick Wilson predicted in 2016 that if Trump was the nominee, the Republicans were going to be out of power for 30 years. Trump still lost the popular vote and only won the electoral college by just about the most improbable feat in US electoral political history.

Everyone who wants Trump out are freaked out that 2016 is going to happen again. The odds of that are about the same as a major league pitcher pitching two no hitters back to back. Trump may or may not have much help from Putin this year, and there is always the possibility of various forms of cheating. Also when there are only the two major party candidates on the ballot both can win. The biggest popular vote blowout in US history was 61% and the biggest margin post Reagan was 9%. Compared to what happens in congressional and state races, those are all narrow elections.

There is reason to be concerned that Trump could get re-elected if you want him gone, but instead of arguing why the Democratic nominee is going to lose, do everything possible to make sure he wins.

Understanding Psychology helps a lot here. Most people look for a safe harbor when they are scared. If they need to pick a leader, they go for a known quantity and someone who they know is not going to do anything scary or reckless. Biden is winning the nomination and Bernie is underperforming because while many Democrats may like Bernie's ideas, they see him as an instrument of change and that's not the national mood right now. People want safe, reliable, and well known.

 

[AudubonB]

I’d like to learn about that “interesting study about ten years ago”, if you have references or source.

 

[dmunjal]

 

[wdolson]

I’d like to learn about that “interesting study about ten years ago”, if you have references or source.

This is the closest I can find. There is a chart at the bottom that essentially tells the story:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ow-age-affects-attitudes-and-voting-behavior/

 

[Norbert]

Not all Bernie supporters will vote for Biden in November, but the majority will probably hold their noses and vote for Biden because the alternative is so much worse.

To me it would seem that someone who doesn't see enough difference between Biden and Trump to go voting, doesn't really understand Bernie's position in the first place...although there I am entering the area of a thousand different ways to look at it.

 

[JRP3]

#DemExit2020 and #WriteinBernie are trending on Twitter.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There's really no way to lose here. Bernie is clearly what's needed, but if Biden wins and lose to Trump it'll be a nice kick in the pants for the party-first Dems. Trump is too stupid to cause any real damage on a Dick Cheney scale and sometimes a little chaos is a healthy learning experience. Pussy grabbing has gone completely out of style. What good stuff could a second term ironically bring?

Then we get AOC/TWM(tall white male) pummeling whomever in 2024.

And hey.....maybe Biden wins. If he somehow does, I bet that means the House and Senate both turn blue. In which case the Bernie/Warren/AOC agenda gets pushed anyway.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

And how about Warren now saying squat before Super Tuesday? First she takes superPAC money, then leaves Bernie out there flapping in the coronavirus filled breeze!

 

[AudubonB]

As #45's chances of winning a fair fight become lower and lower, the most glorious conditions his supporters can wish for is for the development of movements like the aforesaid "DemExit2020" and "WriteinBernie".

For GOP: consider the ramifications of replacing Pence with just about anyone other than Banshee Gryle. As @wdolson has supplied, the relatively non-dreadful although obviously nepotistic Ivanka is one possibility.

For Democrats: consider that the overarching goal is to replace #45, and as such every other action is counter to that. Time is of The Essence only insofar as ensuring no second term for #45. ALL OTHER GOALS can wait.

 

[JRP3]

The problem is many of us see that the establishment Dems are as much of the problem as the Republicans. We keep kicking the can down the road and nothing changes, and in fact things get worse. The Dems are lucky that Trump is so obviously incompetent and dangerous that many of us will probably hold our noses and vote for Biden even though it goes against almost everything we believe.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I don't agree. If the debates happen, which I doubt Trump will agree, Biden will get in Trump's face every time Trump tries to pull a stunt. You will see Biden say something along the lines of "there you go again" like Reagan did in 1980.

Biden is very good at dealing with bullies and that's the only tool in Trump's toolbox. Bernie is a policy wonk and Trump will do everything he could to derail the debate dragging it away from the issues which is Bernie's strength and make it all about Bernie being a socialist.

I could not agree more than Biden would fare well if debating Trump. Not only would he not be bullied by Trump, he would further bring home to debate viewers the character, values and human qualities he has which are absent in Trump.

There are plenty of mistakes, gaffs and inconsistencies in Biden's 25 + year political career. But voters can sense he is at heart a decent, caring and patriotic American. That and the edge it gives him against Trump explains the remarkable turn around in his appeal and Sander's collapse. Steve Kornacki's county by county comparisons of Michigan voting in 2016 vs 2020 makes crystal clear that Sander's narrow victory over Clinton there was due to Clinton being an even less appealing choice than Sanders, not due to his strength and appeal among the full range of Democrat voters. What with corona virus and a recession now in play, Sanders would likely beat Trump, but he would not generate an electoral wave that will flip the Senate and oust (and perhaps replace) McConnell. All of the Obama Dem coalition are desperate to see Trump and his Republican enablers roundly defeated in November. The primary voting shows that 70% of the Dem coalition believe Biden is a much safer choice to get that done, despite his faults.

 

[JRP3]

Not only would he not be bullied by Trump, he would further bring home to debate viewers the character, values and human qualities he has which are absent in Trump.

Unless we get the angry, stumbling Biden we've seen lately in much less stressful situations. Have some of you not seen all the examples?

 

[adiggs]

The odds that everybody in this country are going to get COVID-19 is very high. It has characteristics that are absolutely ideal for universal spread. Those over 65 are at much higher risk to have a bad case. By November the over 65s could be completely traumatized by the mismanagement of the Trump administration.

We don't need anything like universal infection for this to happen. Somewhere in the 10-20% infection range I figure would be enough to create a dynamic where effectively everybody is personally affected - actual infection, family member, close friend, or somebody at the nursing home that somebody you know lives at.

I recently met somebody that drove this point home for me - when you've got direct personal experience, the political talking points become less important and the reality of one's experience more important.

Understanding Psychology helps a lot here. Most people look for a safe harbor when they are scared. If they need to pick a leader, they go for a known quantity and someone who they know is not going to do anything scary or reckless. Biden is winning the nomination and Bernie is underperforming because while many Democrats may like Bernie's ideas, they see him as an instrument of change and that's not the national mood right now. People want safe, reliable, and well known.

One thing I like, and just saw today for the first time - apparently an important component of how Biden is campaigning is he's making it clear that he's not the big vision and change guy. He's transition guy. Whether it's 1 term or 2, he's transition guy to get things sane again, and then hand off.

 

[LN1_Casey]

#DemExit2020 and #WriteinBernie are trending on Twitter.

Written by idiots who don't understand life yet, and/or bots to try and break up the people Who Wont Vote Trump. I hate people like this, yeah, having your candidate of choice not win the nomination really sucks. But are you honestly trying to say you'd prefer Trump? Because that's what you'd get if you don't vote for his actual opponent.

 

[adiggs]

Written by idiots who don't understand life yet, and/or bots to try and break up the people Who Wont Vote Trump. I hate people like this, yeah, having your candidate of choice not win the nomination really sucks. But are you honestly trying to say you'd prefer Trump? Because that's what you'd get if you don't vote for his actual opponent.

I do so love our political system here in the US. The closest thing to a vote FOR something / somebody was in the 2016 election for me, when I voted Libertarian for the first time. By the standard of the last sentence, I didn't actually vote for something I wanted - I voted for Trump.

And it's even true to a large degree. We have a political system where we can view our votes as "owned" by particular candidates.


In my life, with that one exception, I've never voted FOR something / somebody; I've only voted AGAINST.

This year, I might actually be voting for Biden. Not because I particularly want Biden, but I AM attracted to the idea of some sanity and a large collection of competent people running the government, and not because I think he's going to do anything I expect I'll look back and say "I was there when ..". Mostly, it'll be a vote AGAINST Trump.


What I'd like to see from both sides of the aisle, is a more liberty focused platform, and a lot less bipartisan Authoritarianism. I expect that until we've got a candidate like that, I'll continue voting AGAINST my perceived greater evil.

 

[AudubonB]

The problem is many of us see that the establishment Dems are as much of the problem as the Republicans. We keep kicking the can down the road and nothing changes, and in fact things get worse. The Dems are lucky that Trump is so obviously incompetent and dangerous that many of us will probably hold our noses and vote for Biden even though it goes against almost everything we believe.

1. Define "many". Is it a large fraction of voters? Of Democrat-leaning voters? Of adult residents? Of like-minded Twitter account holders? Of an echo chamber? Is it any different from saying that there are "many" who believe in TSLAQ?

2. "...lucky...that many...vote Biden". And that is the lesson that d*mned well better have been learned after 2016. Far far too many either did not go to the polls at all or voted 3rd party than rallied behind the only way that could have kept the nation and world from the horrors of the last four years: voting FOR a flawed candidate who nonetheless was so far a less horrible choice that it was the height of irresponsibility not to have done so.

 

[JRP3]

Written by idiots who don't understand life yet, and/or bots to try and break up the people Who Wont Vote Trump. I hate people like this, yeah, having your candidate of choice not win the nomination really sucks. But are you honestly trying to say you'd prefer Trump? Because that's what you'd get if you don't vote for his actual opponent.

There are a certain number of people who think both sides are equally corrupt and they saw Sanders as a way to counter that corruption. Some of those people had the same feelings about Trump.

 

[LN1_Casey]

By the standard of the last sentence, I didn't actually vote for something I wanted - I voted for Trump.

Not to blame you in particular, but kinda yeah. It's called the spoiler effect.

This youtube video explains is better than me:

Basically, there are only so many votes in America. If you add a candidate in, it will lower the result for someone else. It can mean that a majority can vote against a person being elected, but that person will still win.