Market politics

[wdolson]

Why is Russia going to war against the US shale industry if Putin wants Trump reelected? That kind of financial impact could sink Trump alone.

Putin doesn't care about Trump in the long run. His overarching goal is to do as much damage to the US as possible. Trump is useful to this cause.

But Putin has another concern that is critical, he has to keep his own oil flowing to world markets or the Russian economy completely collapses. He took measures to go after the US oil when the shale industry increased exports and started cutting into Putin's sales. Then Saudi Arabia retaliated to put Russia into its place.

Dropping oil usage worldwide due COVID-19 fueled this.

I'm afraid you aren't in touch with some of the more radical progressives. There is a lot of anger over the way the corporate Dems have obviously manipulated the process all along the way only to give us a candidate who's so weak they are hiding him from the media and trying to get debates canceled so people can't see how bad he is.

The KGB and it's successor, the FSB (of which the Internet Research Agency is a part) has a term for people like that: useful idiots. They routinely take advantage of people who are upset and angry and have used social media to fuel these sentiments and make people who are leaning in that direction more angry and more likely to join the cause. There are Americans who are upset and angry, the goal of the the Russians is to maximize the anger and animosity.

Remember the Revolutionary War saying "united we stand, divided we fall?" The Russians know that.

Did you not see how Trump tried to save shale, just like how he tried to save coal? The economy will be fine due to the massive move to renewables. Shale will die, and Trump will look the hero for trying to save their american jobs. Looks like a win-win for Putin.

This is affecting much much more than just the oil business. The banks are in serious trouble because they hold a lot of the massive debt the oil shale industry generated. Manufacturing across the board is also very impacted. Components for almost every manufactured product in the world requires components from China and Chinese production is very disrupted now. We are weeks to a couple of months away from widespread medicine shortages.

With people afraid to travel combined with other travel restrictions, all travel related industries are going to suffer and could lead to chain reaction bankruptcies.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Putin doesn't care about Trump in the long run. His overarching goal is to do as much damage to the US as possible. Trump is useful to this cause.

But Putin has another concern that is critical, he has to keep his own oil flowing to world markets or the Russian economy completely collapses. He took measures to go after the US oil when the shale industry increased exports and started cutting into Putin's sales. Then Saudi Arabia retaliated to put Russia into its place.

Dropping oil usage worldwide due COVID-19 fueled this.



The KGB and it's successor, the FSB (of which the Internet Research Agency is a part) has a term for people like that: useful idiots. They routinely take advantage of people who are upset and angry and have used social media to fuel these sentiments and make people who are leaning in that direction more angry and more likely to join the cause. There are Americans who are upset and angry, the goal of the the Russians is to maximize the anger and animosity.

Remember the Revolutionary War saying "united we stand, divided we fall?" The Russians know that.



This is affecting much much more than just the oil business. The banks are in serious trouble because they hold a lot of the massive debt the oil shale industry generated. Manufacturing across the board is also very impacted. Components for almost every manufactured product in the world requires components from China and Chinese production is very disrupted now. We are weeks to a couple of months away from widespread medicine shortages.

With people afraid to travel combined with other travel restrictions, all travel related industries are going to suffer and could lead to chain reaction bankruptcies.

But banks don't hold the debts directly. They sell that off to bond holders. Unlike the mortgage CDS, there's no splicing of mixed-quality tranches. The bag holders are the bond holders. Now the banks might hold the CDS's for those bonds, but we're not talking about trillions of dollars worth like with real estate, as the shale producers had much shorter time-frames to deal with their debt. I can see the banks being financially impacted, but they won't be crippled by a collapse of the shale producers. As a matter of fact, the banks have already started divesting from oil as they've considered anymore loans to them as being high risk.

 

[wdolson]

But banks don't hold the debts directly. They sell that off to bond holders. Unlike the mortgage CDS, there's no splicing of mixed-quality tranches. The bag holders are the bond holders. Now the banks might hold the CDS's for those bonds, but we're not talking about trillions of dollars worth like with real estate, as the shale producers had much shorter time-frames to deal with their debt. I can see the banks being financially impacted, but they won't be crippled by a collapse of the shale producers. As a matter of fact, the banks have already started divesting from oil as they've considered anymore loans to them as being high risk.

Here is an article about the banks at risk:
You should avoid shares of these banks with too much oil and gas exposure

The big banks will take a haircut, but most of the bank debt is held by smaller regional banks.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Here is an article about the banks at risk:
You should avoid shares of these banks with too much oil and gas exposure

The big banks will take a haircut, but most of the bank debt is held by smaller regional banks.

the fact that it made it to a marketwatch article means that the risk is known and it's up to those banks to mitigate their impending losses.

 

[Dare]

Not a shot. This selloff won't last till Nov. It will burn off in the next 1-2 months, tops.

How about now?

 

[bkp_duke]

How about now?

Still not a shot. The market is falling too fast for the selloff to last into Nov.

 

[Dare]

Still not a shot. The market is falling too fast for the selloff to last into Nov.

Hopefully you’re right, but I still think this will be the end for Trump. His incompetence will be his undoing.

 

[jdw]

I despair when people are looking at Joe "Grampa Simpson" Biden to save them from Trump incompetance.

 

[Dare]

 

[JRP3]

The KGB and it's successor, the FSB (of which the Internet Research Agency is a part) has a term for people like that: useful idiots. They routinely take advantage of people who are upset and angry and have used social media to fuel these sentiments and make people who are leaning in that direction more angry and more likely to join the cause. There are Americans who are upset and angry, the goal of the the Russians is to maximize the anger and animosity.

Those people don't need any help from the Russians to feed their anger, the establishment does a fine job on it's own. Conspiracy theories are not needed to explain the obvious. The system has been failing the people for decades.

 

[JRP3]

Jake Tapper compares Biden to Kerry, and why it's a bad choice:

 

[Bobfitz1]

Unless we get the angry, stumbling Biden we've seen lately in much less stressful situations. Have some of you not seen all the examples?

There are no shortage of cringe worthy Biden clips from the past few months of debates and appearances. However the events of the past two weeks have surprisingly improved his presence and speaking abilities. I've seen several short speeches (after his wins in SC and then Super Tuesday that were coherent and showed he knows how to modulate his tone, energy and voice to get across several positive aspects of his character. I think the media coverage of those stronger than expected speeches were part of the reason turnout in Michigan and most of the other states Tuesday were way higher than in 2016. Those extra voters were not the legions of young voters Sanders has promised he could mobilize.

While I can only stand small and infrequent doses of Fox Faux News, I suspect that broadcast clips of Sanders speeches shown on Fox, MSNBC and broadcast networks are pretty close to identical. They are nearly always angry, hectoring diatribes. Great for boosting the enthusiasm of his supporters, but a bad single view to expand and win the support of the full range of Dem inclined voters and independents needed for a wave election.

The reality is that given where the electorate stands now, there is no single election, great leap forward path to a much more progressive and equitable country. A resounding election victory over Trump and the Republicans, followed by legislation to move forward renewable energy, expanded and improved health coverage, immigration reform and at most a few others (crafted in a way to avoid triggering big losses in 2022) is the only way forward to climb out of the deep nightmare we are in, dust off and move forward again.

 

[wdolson]

Those people don't need any help from the Russians to feed their anger, the establishment does a fine job on it's own. Conspiracy theories are not needed to explain the obvious. The system has been failing the people for decades.

In Psychology it's called shaping. Reward the behavior you want to see and it will become more common. The Russians want chaos in the American political system so their troll farms reward outrage behavior, which causes it to grow. The anger is there to begin with, but anger can be expressed and dealt with in different ways.

Another part of shaping a group is to make a relatively small group feel larger than it is. Fox News has been doing that to Republicans for years. During the GW Bush administration Republicans really thought their attitude was the majority in this country.

There was a Five Thirty Eight podcast Tuesday night where they talked about the narrative going into the primary season compared to the reality that has come out of voting. The belief taken from the 2016 primary was there was a fast growing extreme liberal movement in the Democratic party, but the voting patterns in the primaries is showing that at least some of Bernie's support in 2016 was just not-Hilary voters. When younger voters do turn out to vote, they do vote much more liberal than at least the Roosevelt Democrats, but like young voters through the generations, they still don't turn out. When they do turn out in numbers we will see the shift to the left, but it isn't happening this year.

But back to shaping groups, this can stir mob behavior in people. If someone has gotten their anger stoked, they can act out thinking the crowd will join them, but thus far it's isolated acts of violence like the guy who rammed the protestors at the Charlotte neo-Nazi rally or the Sanders supporter who assaulted one of Biden's aids (who used to be on the Sanders campaign) and broke her iPad.

My SO does DV perpetrator counseling, mostly court ordered. Some older men, and men of some immigrant or very conservative religious groups can believe they have a right to their behavior, but almost all men under 50 ended up in the system because they were abused as children, carry a lot of hurt, and have anger problems as a result. Her approach is to shape behavior the opposite way, into constructive directions and her recidivism rate is essentially nil.

The US has a large segment of the population who used to do fairly well, but they have been left behind because the US economy doesn't have room for them. If driverless vehicles become legal and all the bugs get worked out, it will create another massive group of Americans who are unemployable. Those left behind and at risk of being left behind have legitimate reasons to be upset. It's how that upset is channeled that is the issue and there are many forces manipulating those people to channel their anger in destructive directions because those forces want them fighting one another instead of putting their heads on pikes.

 

[AudubonB]

@rhino:

You Disagree with my post?

there can be only three possible reasons:

You think a Democrat can win in Alaska - which, alas, means you know nothing about the state so you shouldn’t be posting, or

You think that I shouldn’t vote, which means that you shouldn’t be anywhere near any political forum ...and a whole lot more besides, none of it good, or

My wording was confusing, in which case I apologize.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I despair when people are looking at Joe "Grampa Simpson" Biden to save them from Trump incompetance.

You should start following the primary results and endorsements by political leaders who have credibility with voters.
The large increases in voter turnout and who they are voting for would ease your concern about beating Trump.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I despair when people are looking at Joe "Grampa Simpson" Biden to save them from Trump incompetance.

At least with Biden, we know he'll hire a team of far more competent members and not 'yes men,' even if he himself is unable to preform as a president should. And he'll play far less golf and watch far less Fox News.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Those people don't need any help from the Russians to feed their anger, the establishment does a fine job on it's own. Conspiracy theories are not needed to explain the obvious. The system has been failing the people for decades.

Leave it CA to give you want you want ... anyone other than biden!

Sanders is back in the running.

 

[wdolson]

@rhino:

You Disagree with my post?

there can be only three possible reasons:

You think a Democrat can win in Alaska - which, alas, means you know nothing about the state so you shouldn’t be posting, or

You think that I shouldn’t vote, which means that you shouldn’t be anywhere near any political forum ...and a whole lot more besides, none of it good, or

My wording was confusing, in which case I apologize.

I had a bit of trouble understanding you last post, but I figured it was me.

Leave it CA to give you want you want ... anyone other than biden!

Sanders is back in the running.

You may be joking but...

Just because California was called for him it does not put him back in the running. The polls out today are grim for Bernie. The best poll for Bernie has him losing to Biden by 16 in Wisconsin. One has him below viability in Florida. At this point the only way Bernie can win the nomination is if Biden dies.

And as Nate Silver pointed out, Biden's weakest in the blue states in the west, which is actually a good thing for the general election. Even if every Bernie primary voter in California boycotted the general election, Biden will reap 55 EV from California. In the general California is an automatic win for any Democrat. Biden is showing more strength in the upper Midwest than Hillary did, which puts the states Trump won narrowly back into the Democrat's camp.

There is a lot of buzz about Biden's speech today, even Fox News carried it. I sense a public mood shift that people want the primaries to be over and the general election to be ASAP. If Bernie is still in the race next Tuesday I expect he's going to drop out soon after. The states next Tuesday are all poor ones for Bernie and several are fairly big delegate prizes. The math is already pretty much impossible for him. Five Thirty Eight has the odds of Biden taking the nomination on the first ballot at 99%. It will likely be 100% by next Wednesday.

Looking at how things are shaping up for the "debate" this Sunday I suspect Bernie is looking for getting Biden to buy into his ideas as much as possible before bailing out to try and get as many of his supporters as possible to vote blue this fall. This year Bernie had two goals running for president: stop the existential threat caused by the current incumbent and get the US moving in the direction he wants to take it. The second one will never happen if the first one fails, and Bernie knows that.

I'm sure he's disappointed he won't be able to implement his reforms, but he's settling for the better of the two candidates who will be on the general election ballot. And maybe he can nudge Biden into committing to some of the social reforms Bernie wants.

 

[bhtooefr]

Worth noting that a "make America sane again" candidate won't work, IMO, even if the candidate wins.

Here's what happens if Biden wins the general, IMO: The Biden administration probably will stabilize things... but not actually fix things. Then, in 2022, the fascist backlash will begin, and the Republicans will have full control of the legislature. In 2024, if Biden even runs, I suspect he loses - if he doesn't run, whoever does run loses - and to a more competent (and therefore more dangerous) fascist than Trump. The mechanism for this, I think, is that whatever party is in power gets blamed for the problems during their administration, closing the lane for that party. In a Bitecofer model, that means that the Democratic base is demoralized and doesn't bother showing up. In a conventional model, that means that the centrist swing voter votes Republican to get something different.

(I suspect that the Bitecofer model only works with generic Democrats and generic Republicans along the Standard Spectrum Of Positions, though, and that a candidate could actually convince someone to swing from one party to the other... but it takes a special candidate, and it's less likely for that to happen with the parties' centrally-controlled strategies. Obama 2008, Sanders, and Trump all break the Bitecofer model, IMO. And, it's not necessarily the centrist that is the swing voter - Sanders/Trump is not a centrist swing at all, yet we saw it.)

If Trump wins in 2020, we get four years of bad stuff, including as the "vote blue no matter who" crowd likes to point out, potentially making the Supreme Court more right-wing. The backlash against him continues, though, and may keep the legislature Democratic, especially if Trump wins on low vote count (if the Dems can win the Senate, they can pull a McConnell on Trump, even, and block SC appointments). Then, in 2024, when he terms out, the Republican party gets blamed for the problems, opening the lane further for Democrats (including progressives who actually want to fix things).

All of this said, actually voting for Trump is something that I could never do, could never advocate for, and could only advocate against. He's an awful person and an awful president.

And, if Trump wins in 2020 and is then replaced by Pence for some reason... yeah, that outcome horrifies me. Pence is actually far more competent, and therefore far more dangerous.

But at this point, the only way I see myself voting for Biden in the general is if he has a really good vice president, and some guarantee that that VP isn't just ceremonial. (Given his apparent condition, that may be precisely the case... but I doubt the VP will be really good.)

 

[JRP3]

I doubt the VP will be really good.

I'm expecting Kamala Harris. Not good.