Market politics

[wdolson]

Honest question for you. Do you believe the DNC used voter suppression in Super Tuesday by closing stations, especially in Texas.

Long voting lines in Texas renew accusations of voter suppression

AOC implies voter suppression cost Bernie Sanders Michigan primary: 'Kids were waiting three hours' to vote

Please don't just say Republicans are worse.

Caucuses are run by the party, primaries by the state (and local governments). In Texas the Democrats have essentially no control over the voting process at all.

If you read the Fox News article linked, she does not mention the DNC or Bernie. A lot of people have read things into her statements she didn't say. She was talking about problems voting in this country, which is a serious problem.

Michigan was overwhelmed between a new voting process that allowed for same-day registration and a much larger than expected turnout. The long lines were a fail for the state, which does have a Democratic governor now.

The polling average in the week before the primary had Biden up by 22.4 and he won in the end by 16.5. He under-performed the polls by 6 points. How can anyone make a case anyone suppressed votes for Bernie?

 

[dmunjal]

Caucuses are run by the party, primaries by the state (and local governments). In Texas the Democrats have essentially no control over the voting process at all.

If you read the Fox News article linked, she does not mention the DNC or Bernie. A lot of people have read things into her statements she didn't say. She was talking about problems voting in this country, which is a serious problem.

Michigan was overwhelmed between a new voting process that allowed for same-day registration and a much larger than expected turnout. The long lines were a fail for the state, which does have a Democratic governor now.

The polling average in the week before the primary had Biden up by 22.4 and he won in the end by 16.5. He under-performed the polls by 6 points. How can anyone make a case anyone suppressed votes for Bernie?

So, it's the local and state governments at fault when it's the Democrats but the RNC when it's the Republicans?

Bernie was favored to win Texas.

Bernie Sanders leads in Texas, a pivotal Super Tuesday primary, NBC/Marist poll says

https://q13fox.com/2020/03/02/bernie-sanders-ahead-of-joe-biden-in-texas-new-poll-shows/

 

[wdolson]

So, it's the local and state governments at fault when it's the Democrats but the RNC when it's the Republicans?

Bernie was favored to win Texas.

Bernie Sanders leads in Texas, a pivotal Super Tuesday primary, NBC/Marist poll says

Bernie Sanders ahead of Joe Biden in Texas, new poll shows

The time between the South Carolina and Texas primaries was only 4 days. Most of the polls that came out on March 2 were in the field before the South Carolina primary. The Emerson college poll was in the field Feb 29 (the day of the SC primary) to March 1. That says about half the respondents were not aware of the SC primary result when they answered the poll. A Swayable poll that was in the field Mar 1 and 2 had a point lead for Sanders, but also had 5% for Buttigieg and 3% for Klobachar. They dropped out on the eve of the Texas primary and most of that vote went to Biden. The Data for Progress poll from March 3 was in the field Feb 27-Mar 2, but Biden had a 2 poin advantage in that poll.

Michigan happened in a more stable polling environment as the shocks in the days before Super Tuesday had settled into the minds of voters in subsequent primaries. The highest rated pollster (Monmouth A+) on the eve of the Michigan primary had Biden up by 15 and he finished at 16.5, within the margin of error.

Bernie is under performing his 2016 performance. That's a fact. There are many possible reasons for this:

1) The DNC/Democrats/somebody are cheating or changing the results
2) Some percentage of the 2016 Bernie vote was anti-Hillary and not pro-Bernie
3) This is a different time and the voters have different priorities from 2016
4) Biden really is more popular
5) Everything is being faked be a deep state plot that is hacking all the vote tabulation

Personally I think #5 is getting into the tin foil hat crowd led by Alex Jones. And I think the most likely reasons are #2 and #3.

The fact of the matter is there is more support for the moderate candidates this election cycle. When there were 6 of them competing for the moderate lane and only one or two in the more liberal lane, the moderates balkanized each other. Now that the race has been pared down to one moderate and one liberal, the moderate voters are rallying around the one moderate candidate and he's winning.

As I've said before, the Democratic party is not as liberal as the Twitter Democrats think it is. It's moving a bit to the left every year, but the bulk of the party is still fairly moderate. The younger generations are more liberal which means the party will liberalize over time, but right now the bulk of voters are over 40 and they are not super liberal, as a group (though there are always individuals in any group who are out on the end of the bell curve).

The US population is also very freaked out right now and it's getting worse. I had to do the regular grocery shopping the other day and it was madness. They announced over the PA they just got in some hand sanitizer and they sold out in about a minute. The toilet paper aisle was empty and at checkout they said they completely restocked that aisle an hour and a half before. The checker was tracking sales for the day and said it was a record day for sales.

Traditionally people have run to strong man Republicans when things look scary, but it's the strong man Republican's incompetence that is part of the reason they need so much toilet paper. Biden is the calm, rational voice that people feel gets it and gets them. One comment about tonight's debate between Biden and Bernie was Biden showed that he likes and cares about people, Bernie comes across as liking humanity, but not really liking people much.

A big element of leadership in a crisis involves assuring those affected that things are going to be alright and to demonstrate competency in actually getting things done. Trump is falling flat on his face in both areas. Bernie would probably do OK in the latter, but he doesn't have the "bed side manner" to make people feel like there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Biden can do both.

 

[SageBrush]

Pollution likely makes things worse with Covid19.
This is probably one of the reasons the Lombardy numbers are so bad: that's one of the worse regions in Italy for PM10.
Air pollution likely to increase coronavirus death rate, warn experts

Don't downplay this thinking the US is too wide and large: the problem will never be Arkansas or Utah, but Los Angeles, New York, Chicago. Dense cities will be enough for nightmarish scenarios.

Air pollution is obviously a risk factor for disease severity but the Lombardy region of Italy has other risk factors
https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/25/suppl_3/ckv176.123/2578969

I expect the US southern states to end being Lombardy+++.
They are a toxic mixture of tobacco abuse, obesity, co-morbidity, poverty, broken healthcare and trumperism.

 

[X Fan]

Air pollution is obviously a risk factor for disease severity but the Lombardy region of Italy has other risk factors
https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/25/suppl_3/ckv176.123/2578969

I expect the US southern states to end being Lombardy+++.
They are a toxic mixture of tobacco abuse, obesity, co-morbidity, poverty, broken healthcare and trumperism.

Geez, c'mon; your posts seem to be hopelessly intolerable of folks that don't think like you and besides Seattle was ground zero for the breakout. That is a very liberal market.

Fact is, this disease will hit across all human beings, regardless of political stance.

Please don't bring that partisan divide on this forum...take it to the political thread.

 

[LJS22]

So what price do you expect Democrats will accept for Trump to be reelected in November after a fast, stimulus-fueled recovery?

If Obama was in office the Republicans would do anything to prevent a stimulus, there would be no negotiation. We know this because they tried it without any power. But I think the democrats will be more willing to help as long as they get some items in the bill that support their agenda also then the bill will likely be passed.

Sorry trying not to be too political here but the nature of Congress has been this. Republicans wanted no bailouts or stimulus when Obama came into office but now that Trump’s presidency rides on the economy recovering they are bailing everything out. This is one of the most unstable economies I’ve seen.

 

[SageBrush]

Geez, c'mon

Take off the blinders.

Trumpers are twice as likely as democrats to not view Covid-19 as a real threat. Look at the poll I posted. That will directly translate into twice the R null value, all else being equal. But things are far from equal: the southern states have more obesity, more diabetes, less health resources, more tobacco abuse, and a population that is majority trumper.

It is a petri dish for an epidemic explosion.

 

[X Fan]

Take off the partisan blinders.

Trumpers are twice as likely as democrats to not view Covid-19 as a real threat. Look at the poll I posted. That will directly translate into twice the R null value, all else being equal. But things are far from equal: the southern states have more obesity, more diabetes, less health resources, more tobacco abuse, and a population that is majority trumper.

It is a petri dish for an epidemic explosion.

There you go again....you have no clue what my political views are but yet....since I disagree with you I must be politically a polar opposite of you.

Geez...

 

[Fact Checking]

If Obama was in office the Republicans would do anything to prevent a stimulus, there would be no negotiation. We know this because they tried it without any power. But I think the democrats will be more willing to help as long as they get some items in the bill that support their agenda also then the bill will likely be passed.

Democrats have a very difficult task: which is the bigger threat to America, the coronavirus recession, or a second term of the IIC (Incompetent In Chief)?

The first term of Trump already cost the nation the dissolution of the White House Pandemic Response Team, with the consequence of possibly tens of thousands of Americans dead (if we take the optimistic scenario).

What would be the body count of a second Trump presidency?

And that's the questions they are weighing if they are true patriots. If they are slimy politicians they'll just screw the Republicans by slow-walking any stimulus measures...

I.e. I'm not convinced a "big" stimulus is coming anytime soon - and if that's the case there will be more macro turmoil.

I could be wrong though.

 

[SageBrush]

you have no clue what my political views are but yet

I have no interest in your political views, I am just telling you that the US South has a plethora of risk factors including trumperism. From what I have seen though, trumpers follow the sociopath quite readily so they may change their opinions relatively quickly. The problem of course is that trump is already weeks behind in his messaging, and his messaging is inconsistent for political gamesmanship purposes.

Does the South have weeks to start practice social distancing ? I don't think so. It is already behind the 8 ball.

 

[bkp_duke]

Take off the partisan blinders.

Trumpers are twice as likely as democrats to not view Covid-19 as a real threat. Look at the poll I posted. That will directly translate into twice the R null value, all else being equal. But things are far from equal: the southern states have more obesity, more diabetes, less health resources, more tobacco abuse, and a population that is majority trumper.

It is a petri dish for an epidemic explosion.

There is a reason they act this way. Literally, the Trump supporters are tired of for decades having being told by Democrats why they are stupid and and worthless. That repetitive insulting has distanced them so much that they have a deep-seeded distrust for the mainstream media and anything they say (whether it be true or not).

The liberals and their aggressive hatred for anything "conservative" drew the battle lines here. For better or worse, society now gets to deal with those consequences.

Perhaps if people weren't so condescending to conservatives with different viewpoints, they might listen to your opinions and consider them, instead of what you see now. If you ever actually sit down and talk with them, they are nice people, and if you showed that you valued their opinions, even if you don't agree with them, you would probably get a lot further in convincing them about some things that are backed by data (climate change, COVID-19, etc.).

For anyone wanting some insight into the psyche of this group, that's why they act the way they act. Society has not been kind to them, and they feel justified in giving society the big middle finger because of it.

 

[LJS22]

Democrats have a very difficult task: which is the bigger threat to America, the coronavirus recession, or a second term of the IIC (Incompetent In Chief)?

The first term of Trump already cost the nation the dissolution of the White House Pandemic Response Team, with the consequence of possibly tens of thousands of Americans dead.

What would be the body count of a second Trump presidency?

And that's the questions they are weighing if they are true patriots. If they are slimy politicians they'll just screw the Republicans...

True. But Republicans have been good in the past at blaming Dems for killing Americans and supporting non American lives. They will turn this in every way they can and I’m not sure the electorate is smart enough to not fall into that trap.

Democrats need to be outspoken, front run a bill that can pass and get the country back above water. We can’t keep this up until November. The economy is going to collapse in a way that might not be redeemable for years. We might already be there.

 

[JRP3]

The liberals and their aggressive hatred for anything "conservative" drew the battle lines here.

Wrong thread but I remember the beginning of rabid "lib bashing" from the right during the Clinton administration from people like Limbaugh.

 

[JRP3]

Yep, there are bad actors on both sides. But if you actually talk to the PEOPLE, you will find something far different than what the media (on both sides) portrays.

The culmination of all of this was the "deplorables" comment by H. Clinton. That comment pretty much solidified the anti-liberal stance of these people for at least a generation.

I'm sorry but the "us vs them" rabidity started gaining steam long before that spured by the Limbaugh types and Fox news. Then anti-liberal stance was well established long before "deplorables".

 

[bkp_duke]

I'm sorry but the "us vs them" rabidity started gaining steam long before that spured by the Limbaugh types and Fox news. Then anti-liberal stance was well established long before "deplorables".

But before then they would at least LISTEN. Now? No shot in hell.

 

[winfield100]

There is a reason they act this way. Literally, the Trump supporters are tired of for decades having being told by Democrats why they are stupid and and worthless. That repetitive insulting has distanced them so much that they have a deep-seeded distrust for the mainstream media and anything they say (whether it be true or not).

The liberals and their aggressive hatred for anything "conservative" drew the battle lines here. For better or worse, society now gets to deal with those consequences.

Perhaps if people weren't so condescending to conservatives with different viewpoints, they might listen to your opinions and consider them, instead of what you see now. If you ever actually sit down and talk with them, they are nice people, and if you showed that you valued their opinions, even if you don't agree with them, you would probably get a lot further in convincing them about some things that are backed by data (climate change, COVID-19, etc.).

For anyone wanting some insight into the psyche of this group, that's why they act the way they act. Society has not been kind to them, and they feel justified in giving society the big middle finger because of it.

Seriously?
In 1980, Ronald “Raygun” Reagan started or continued the big lie that you should fear the government
Saying the fear mongering lie
“I’m from the government and I’m here to help you”
That you should fear this, repeated it in “the big lie”
Newt Gingrich continued it with destruction of government, starve it to death
For 40 years mostly republicans have tried to starve the government, to make it ineffective, except for the around $700 Billion for military misadventures, per year

Congratulations, you succeeded.
You made people fear the government, made it very ineffective and complain about the results.
You made the deals with the devils, you won.
Welcome to your whirlwind and chaos.
40 years plus of trying to destroy effective government, you gestated it, birthed it, cannot control the results

 

[JRP3]

But before then they would at least LISTEN. Now? No shot in hell.

They weren't listening. One word does not suddenly change everything.

 

[bkp_duke]

They weren't listening. One word does not suddenly change everything.

I'm from the "deep south" and grew up there before I moved to CA. I still have close connections there and travel back to visit family frequently.

I'm telling you what people are saying, and for how long they have been saying it (basically since B. Clinton). You can like it or not, but that's simply the fact of things.

Fox has certainly tapped into that sentiment and exacerbated it, but they did not start it. There is a long-standing distrust of "liberal elites" and I'm telling you it comes down to the lack of respect, simply as a human being, that is given to these people in the deep south by said "elites". It's been decades in the making, but that's the root of it.

If you take the time to talk to them, instead of pre-judging them, they are actually pretty open to discussion of things "new" to them. They LOVE talking about Tesla when they see my car and want to know more, like how long it takes it to charge, how far it can go, how's the ride, etc. etc.

 

[JRP3]

I'm telling you what people are saying, and for how long they have been saying it (basically since B. Clinton).

That was my point. I talk to similar people too, and their "anti libtard" attitude started around Bill Clinton, spurred on by Limbaugh and Fox. Yes, it's continued to get worse over the years.

 

[Intl Professor]

That was my point. I talk to similar people too, and their "anti libtard" attitude started around Bill Clinton, spurred on by Limbaugh and Fox. Yes, it's continued to get worse over the years.

It has been controlling in American politics since at least the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. Anything anti-labor is welcome here. What could be more inflammatory than "workers of the world unite!," going back to the mid-19th century. Even we, but for different reason, invaded Russia at two places during the Russian Civil War as did many state actors. It is estimated seven million died then. That's how important it is to stop communism for Americans (sic). Well. at least its leaders, that's why the noble Reagan opposed Medicare as "communism." And now, of course, Medicare for all.

Sound familiar? The French call it "le capitalisme sauvage."