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I am rooting for a deal to be made between the US and China. I think Trump is unusually equipped for a president to handle trade deals because of his business acumen. It is interesting that so many people are not giving him a chance, as if they prefer failure. I am not sure if this is common knowledge, but there is a psychology to making a sale. Often I see Trump posturing in order to get the psychology right, and then he gets put down by the media. His posturing may be off-putting on the surface, but is highly effective and often he is able to achieve the results he wants. Trump is a grand master salesman. A perfect example is the tweet he sent this morning stating that he was a tariff person. He is letting China know there will be more pain for them not making a deal rather than making a fair deal with the US. Like him or hate him, one has to admit that he is very good at getting things done.
I am intrigued by the prospect of a deal being made that would lower auto tariffs and reduce recession worries. I never bought into the short squeeze that has been discussed ad nauseum on TMC, but a scenario where a surprise trade deal breakthrough happens is where I could potentially see the stock price shoot up. The shorts piled on because of their belief of Tesla being overvalued. Some think that once the economy slows, the fundamentals will take over and Tesla will sink. Others think competition and lack of demand will sink Tesla. A surprising trade deal could drive a stake through the hearts of all those shorts, plus the bump from the macros could make things interesting.
I am intrigued by the prospect of a deal being made that would lower auto tariffs and reduce recession worries. I never bought into the short squeeze that has been discussed ad nauseum on TMC, but a scenario where a surprise trade deal breakthrough happens is where I could potentially see the stock price shoot up. The shorts piled on because of their belief of Tesla being overvalued. Some think that once the economy slows, the fundamentals will take over and Tesla will sink. Others think competition and lack of demand will sink Tesla. A surprising trade deal could drive a stake through the hearts of all those shorts, plus the bump from the macros could make things interesting.
I hope you are right. However negotiating with someone whose personal wealth is at stake can be quite different from negotiating with a politician whose position of power is at stake. In particular when dealing with politicians from East Asia, face needs to be saved.
Good point Curt. His techniques seemed to have worked so far with North Korea. He seems to have made good relationships with South Korea and Japan. His track record is good in Asia, let’s hope it continues.
I know many positive-thinking people who naturally gravitate toward giving anyone the benefit of the doubt, the chance to redeem themselves, the opportunity for a 2nd...or 3rd...chance.
But #45 not only has used bankruptcy as a ploy - SIX times! - in order just to wipe out debt so that he can sail away clean, but he denies the fact that he has, in fact, been an utterly rotten businessman again and again and again.
Those of us who see him thus are those who most definitely do not see him as some grand master salesman, but as a grand master conman.
Whether or not you can somehow find some disagreement with the presentation I just gave, if you are honest with yourself you must at the very least understand why a very, very large fraction of Americans and the rest of the world have not one iota of admiration for his business acumen.
But #45 not only has used bankruptcy as a ploy - SIX times! - in order just to wipe out debt so that he can sail away clean, but he denies the fact that he has, in fact, been an utterly rotten businessman again and again and again.
Those of us who see him thus are those who most definitely do not see him as some grand master salesman, but as a grand master conman.
Whether or not you can somehow find some disagreement with the presentation I just gave, if you are honest with yourself you must at the very least understand why a very, very large fraction of Americans and the rest of the world have not one iota of admiration for his business acumen.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Seriously, Trump has convinced certain people that he's some great businessman when facts show the exact opposite. I guess in that way he is a "grand master salesman", but his "product" is BS.
Entrepreneurs are risk takers and sometimes it does not work out. There are successful presidents that have declared bankruptcy, including Lincoln and Jefferson. There are very successful businessmen that have declared bankruptcy, including Walt Disney and Henry Ford. The real estate business is a tough business because of the large amount of capital needed and the cyclical nature of the business. If he truly was a conman then the Trump Organization would have fallen apart because nobody would want to do business with him. Ultimately you have to deliver the goods. If he did not deliver then he would not have been one of the world’s richest real estate developers. I know many will be chomping at the bit to prove me wrong here, but there is an irrational hatred of all things Trump despite all his successes.
With that being said, I could agree he is not perfect and has room for improvement. He just is not the buffoon many claim. I hope he does well because it would be good for the country.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
In fact it would not be good for the country, or the world, if he does well, because it would just give him additional power to try and dismantle the move towards sustainability which is required for survival. He wants to keep supporting coal for crying out loud, a completely outdated technology. We did not become a great country by clinging to the past.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
The hatred need not be irrational. The rational reasons for despising him include but are by no means limited to the fact* that effectively without exception throughout all his years of business, he socialized losses (left noteholders holding the putrid bag; told creditors in effect "You didn't get paid? Sue me.") and privatized gains. The little we have been able to learn of his tax payments, his inheritance shenanigans and his misuse of charitable corporate status furthers his despicability. Worst of all is his uncanny persistence in lying or being slippery with the truth on a scale never before seen in any public figure.
Other points: his bankruptcies were not in the real estate sector sensu stricto. They were in the gambling business, for cry-i. My dead g-g-g-ggrandmother couldn't fail at that business!
*Fact (n): The truth. Veritas. That which is. AKA a word whose meaning appears not to be understood by #45.
Lastly: "not the buffoon many claim". I know not what words others may use, but as for me, give me the word "liar" or give me the word "cheat".
Other points: his bankruptcies were not in the real estate sector sensu stricto. They were in the gambling business, for cry-i. My dead g-g-g-ggrandmother couldn't fail at that business!
*Fact (n): The truth. Veritas. That which is. AKA a word whose meaning appears not to be understood by #45.
Lastly: "not the buffoon many claim". I know not what words others may use, but as for me, give me the word "liar" or give me the word "cheat".
For the record I am a long TSLA holder and am a major renewable energy advocate. I am not a troll. I live in the Midwest and it is clear to me that often the people in between the coasts, especially in rural areas, are not understood. They are often dismissed as being stupid, racist, or greedy. So I think we should speak up from time to time.
Even though I am a big renewable energy fan, I think a quick transition would do more harm than good. For instance, say you own or work for a private corn processing plant. Often these plants use coal fired boilers since the plants are typically at least 50-60 years old. These businesses do not have a lot of spare change laying around. Forcing a plant to scrap a boiler prematurely would potentially put many of these types of businesses out of work and be very detrimental to the economy. However, most of these plants are replacing the coal fired boilers with cleaner fuel boilers once they are out of life. This trend has not changed since Trump became president.
2016 was sort of the perfect storm scenario.
1) The Democrats acted throughout the cycle that Hillary was the next president. It didn't help Bernie any, but he did lose in the end by a fairly decent margin. The whole superdelegate thing helped stack the deck in her favor, but take the superdelegates out and she had 2205 won by election (primaries and caucuses) and Bernie had 1846 won by election. That's 54.4% which is a comfortable win. Treating Hillary like the assumed nominee from the beginning may have given her a bandwagon effect that tilted the field in her favor.
2) The Democrats nominated someone who was both boring and unlikable. The Democrats have nominated some bad candidates in the past, but usually they were just boring. I believe Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the two most unliked main party candidates in presidential history.
3) The Russians and other foreign agents were working to throw the election Trump's way.
4) A number of key states that often vote Democratic in presidential election years have been controlled by Republicans most of this decade and they pulled every trick possible to shift the vote for Trump. A statistical analysis indicates there may have actually been vote tampering in some states, though it's probably impossible to prove.
5) There is a tendency after 8 years of one party in the White House for the other party to get it next time.
There are plenty of boring Democrats out there who probably would make a good president. But there are very few who are as unlikable as Hillary too. And the ones who are unlikable are better politicians and more dynamic speakers. It's virtually impossible for the Democrats to nominate anyone as boring and unlikable as Hillary unless they nominate her again, but I don't think that will happen. There are signs Trump's foreign help are giving up on him. And some of the states that were in Republican control in 2016 will be at least partially in Democratic hands in 2020.
The Republicans really have pulled off minority rule up to now. We see where elections are completely fair, Democrats tend to do very well, but in states where Republicans have done everything they can think of to suppress the Democratic vote, they still lost many races in 2018. In some places the game is still very rigged like Wisconsin where Democrats won state legislature races by an average of 9 points and the Republicans have 65% of the seats (there may have been some seats that weren't up for election as part of that, I haven't looked in depth). But the Republican power is beginning to erode because their base is getting too small to allow them to keep winning with all their old tricks.
I am also from the midwest...still live here.
Speaking up is fine....honesty is better.
It seems whenever certain points are raised about trump the response is either "what aboutism " or a complete lack of acknowledgement of the points raised. He has and continues to lie at a rate that is frankly dizzying. Please instead of saying he is a great businessman look at his easily verifiable track record. If not for his father he would have no business to go into.
He played a deal maker on tv. That is not the same as being a deal maker.
pz1975
Active Member
I just wanted to say that you are one of the best posters on this forum. When I am partway through a post and I scroll up to see who wrote it because it is so well-written and informative, it is almost always you. Thank you for your contributions here.
I can't find it quickly, but the real author of "The Art of the Deal" has come clean about Trump and greatly regrets making up lies about his business smarts. Two easy tests that are independent, though mentioned by the co-author spilling the beans. Why won't banks lend to him, save for Deutsche Bank? How does he profit? Drain casinos of cash, fall behind on payments to labor and contractors, then declare bankruptcy. He has admitted being good at using tax laws.
Thank you and you're welcome. Just my normal babbling.
Tony Schwartz has been trying to tell people about the real Donald Trump since the election. He felt guilty he had done as good a job as he did making Trump look good. I thought he had Trump dialed in pretty well.
Sean Wagner
Member
If one takes the time to look into Trump's transactions, his mob-like treatment of people who expected to have a deal or be paid is evident. In his very limited former playground, he learned where to abuse substance for his short-term personal gain, and conversely shies away from reality by any means. He is conjuring up all the wrong issues and incapable of confronting what ails America to the point it has ceased to be a first world country.
In the end, Trump is merely a symptom of the Republican party's generation-long descent into dogma and disfunction. A reckoning is called for where responsibility is rediscovered. America's failures come down to wanton and self-inflicted acts of mutilation it is immoral and simply stupid to try to pin on anyone else.
I'm perfectly OK with confronting China's so-called communist party. Doing so by first alienating and destroying the trust of and treaties with onetime allies was stupid beyond measure, and the US will not be redeemed in my lifetime. The loss to the free world is unfathomable.
The recipe for modern success is to think up or create attractive products in an attractive country with excellent access to the gigantic world markets, which is impossible without nurturing connections, science, and education. Tax rates are much less important than transparent, predictable, and effective government that works both for business and for citizens.
Meanwhile, none of the European countries highly competitive on the gigantic world market
- have the terrible opioid epidemic, thanks to regulations making it impossible to legally create addicts and profit from their suffering
- do have free trade agreements with Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and soon Australia. Would have had one with the US too.
- do make higher education attainable to all those with the requisite smarts, while also providing excellent vocational training for instance in Mechatronics. Some German firms in the US have shown this can also successfully benefit adults.
- do spend less percentage wise on health than the US but manage to insure everyone to a very high standard. Noone's life will be destroyed in Europe by medical costs.
- let's not even talk about guns. I own one, but the slide is always safely stored in a separate location.
Freedom without honesty and responsibility is not sustainable. Likewise, success in a well-regulated free market economy over the long term mostly goes to those who better concentrate on what matters and uck fup less. The conditions to attract entrepreneurial and smart people and capital were right in the past. It did not matter one bit that the trade deficit persisted. The latter is just a symptom of crazy budgets and extremely parochial management beholden to the quick buck at so many erstwhile industrial champions.
In the end, Trump is merely a symptom of the Republican party's generation-long descent into dogma and disfunction. A reckoning is called for where responsibility is rediscovered. America's failures come down to wanton and self-inflicted acts of mutilation it is immoral and simply stupid to try to pin on anyone else.
I'm perfectly OK with confronting China's so-called communist party. Doing so by first alienating and destroying the trust of and treaties with onetime allies was stupid beyond measure, and the US will not be redeemed in my lifetime. The loss to the free world is unfathomable.
The recipe for modern success is to think up or create attractive products in an attractive country with excellent access to the gigantic world markets, which is impossible without nurturing connections, science, and education. Tax rates are much less important than transparent, predictable, and effective government that works both for business and for citizens.
Meanwhile, none of the European countries highly competitive on the gigantic world market
- have the terrible opioid epidemic, thanks to regulations making it impossible to legally create addicts and profit from their suffering
- do have free trade agreements with Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and soon Australia. Would have had one with the US too.
- do make higher education attainable to all those with the requisite smarts, while also providing excellent vocational training for instance in Mechatronics. Some German firms in the US have shown this can also successfully benefit adults.
- do spend less percentage wise on health than the US but manage to insure everyone to a very high standard. Noone's life will be destroyed in Europe by medical costs.
- let's not even talk about guns. I own one, but the slide is always safely stored in a separate location.
Freedom without honesty and responsibility is not sustainable. Likewise, success in a well-regulated free market economy over the long term mostly goes to those who better concentrate on what matters and uck fup less. The conditions to attract entrepreneurial and smart people and capital were right in the past. It did not matter one bit that the trade deficit persisted. The latter is just a symptom of crazy budgets and extremely parochial management beholden to the quick buck at so many erstwhile industrial champions.
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On the radio yesterday I heard someone talking about Trump's foreign policy. He gets beligerant, creates a crisis, then backs down, gets some sort of nothing concession, and declares victory. The interviewer summed it up even more succinctly:
Trump's foreign policy consists of starting fires than trying to take credit for putting them out.
Trump's foreign policy consists of starting fires than trying to take credit for putting them out.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That's because you're thinking small scale, locally, and short term. When you understand and acknowledge the impact of continued fossil fuel use, especially coal, you'd realize that anything but a quick transition is in fact doing much greater harm. Now if we had a rational administration which understood the need to quickly move towards sustainable energy we would have programs in place to help people switch to cleaner fuels. Instead we have an administration, who you seem to admire, which is simply denying there is any problem at all.
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