Mary Barra, what is going through your mind right now?

[JohnSnowNW]

GM already sells their EV Compliance Car. It's called the Spark EV. It is similar to other EV Compliance cars by other carmakers. Drive one. It's dirt cheap, handles better than the others, and is pretty quick, especially the first ECM flash versions.

The Bolt has more HP and range than any of the Compliance Cars. This was not necessary.

The entire US sales of all EV/PHEV's was just over 100,000 units last year. This includes Tesla, Nissan, and Chevrolet as the main contributors. Exactly why would a responsible company build 100,000 additional units for the next year sales? Or even 50,000?

But GM can and has ramped up volume on high demand models very, very quickly. It's what most all car companies are good at. It's part of the automotive industry structure.

I didn't say they would. The argument is that they'll only build ~30k...this argument has been countered with GM saying they "could" build 50k.

I'm simply stating that GM doesn't seem to have plans to build more than 30k, and the 50k remark does nothing to dissuade from this assumption.

 

[Jeff N]

They provide nothing to substantiate the remark.

I haven't seen you provide anything to substantiate your 30,000 figure.

I believe it probably originated from a Reuters story quoting a couple of anonymous parts suppliers. There is no evidence they were in a position to know the weak link in the total supply chain for the Bolt EV.

The supplier sources probably just know what GM has initially projected for first year sales and asked their company to be prepared to supply. Every car company has to make initial sales projections. GM famously overestimated initial Volt sales and clearly didn't want to do that again.

That says nothing whatever about how many cars they are able and prepared to built once the actual customer demand becomes evident. GM, like every other car maker, will likely adjust in supplier targets on an ongoing basis.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

I haven't seen you provide anything to substantiate your 30,000 figure.

I believe it probably originated from a Reuters story quoting a couple of anonymous parts suppliers. There is no evidence they were in a position to know the weak link in the total supply chain for the Bolt EV.

The supplier sources probably just know what GM has initially projected for first year sales and asked their company to be prepared to supply. Every car company has to make initial sales projections. GM famously overestimated initial Volt sales and clearly didn't want to do that again.

That says nothing whatever about how many cars they are able and prepared to built once the actual customer demand becomes evident.

My remark is backed by the automotive press. I didn't just pull the number out of thin air, as Kelly did in response to a "compliance car" remark.

So, GM expects demand to be around 30k, but they're not constrained to that amount. Great, still sounds like they'll be producing 30k the first year to me...and have given no indication on how quickly they would ramp up, or could ramp up, production. Aside from saying they "could."

So, I think it's safe to assume 30k first year, 2nd year production would expand based on demand.

 

[McRat]

...
I'm simply stating that GM doesn't seem to have plans to build more than 30k, ...

It's unlikely that you are correct. You either would have to be a GM insider to post projected sales numbers, which of course, you would not do, or an outsider, hence have no idea of sales projections.

There is a whole science behind calculating future sales. While the auto industry is on the cutting edge of that branch of mathematics, they are also into flexible manufacturing big time.

However, I'd be surprised if they sold more than 30,000. It's not Jesus's face on a pancake, it's a car. 30,000 would be good for a first year EV/PHEV today. I don't think Tesla sold 30,000 last year in the USA did they?

 

[JohnSnowNW]

It's unlikely that you are correct. You either would have to be a GM insider to post projected sales numbers, which of course, you would not do, or an outsider, hence have no idea of sales projections.

There is a whole science behind calculating future sales. While the auto industry is on the cutting edge of that branch of mathematics, they are also into flexible manufacturing big time.

However, I'd be surprised if they sold more than 30,000. It's not Jesus's face on a pancake, it's a car. 30,000 would be good for a first year EV/PHEV today. I don't think Tesla sold 30,000 last year in the USA did they?

I'm certainly not claiming to be an insider...just using numbers that have already been speculated by those that know a great deal more about the automotive game than me.

I don't have Tesla's numbers on-hand, but I wouldn't make a comparison between a base 80k vehicle, and a base $37.5k, anyway.

 

[SageBrush]

I agree with you which is why I don't understand most of the posts in this thread. I want EVs to be wildly successful. I want the Bolt to be wildly successful (even though I know many at GM and their dealers will try to kill it) - it isnt really a competitor to the 3 so why all the hate?

I don't have any particularly negative opinion about the Bolt, but the same cannot be said of GM

 

[Drivin]

She is probably thinking "glad we didn't have the hubris to over design the Bolt"

 

[Bangor Bob]

Perhaps Tesla should contract with GM to build some Model 3s for them.

GM, where quality is someone else's job? No, Tesla shouldn't want to do that. But... What does Valmet have in the contract pipeline? I think they're building the A-Class and some Mercedes SUVs at the moment.

That may have been harsh, and I may be having flashbacks to GM vehicles of the 70's, 80's and 90's. My Volt does seem to be solidly bolted together and mostly aligned ok. The door trim alignment is off by a mm or two though, and I had to adjust the bump stops on both the hood and hatch...

 

[LaCostaRacer]

If I was Mary, I would be more concerned about the new Nissan Leaf than the Tesla M3.

With the exception of range, cost, and the Bolt being electric- the two cars will be in two different classes.

Also, if I were her I would be very concerned about initial quality- the Bolt needs to be demonstrably better than the Leaf, Kia Soul, Ford and other cars to get the sale. GM has shown that they are concerned mildly by the recent cost reduction, but they are going to need to do more than that.

 

[EVNow]

Who cares what GM thinks.

The question is how will Ghosn react?

 

[stopcrazypp]

Who cares what GM thinks.

The question is how will Ghosn react?

Yeah, I'm interested in this too. GM already shown their cards. Nissan did not yet.

 

[Snowdog]

Nothing wrong being number 2 EV and getting lots of press comparing you.

GM did a really great job for a traditional automaker producing a serious, affordable EV.

I really wonder what goes through the minds that brought us this:
Toyota Mirai Goes On Sale With '2,000 Preorders' - HybridCars.com

 

[HookBill]

Nothing wrong being number 2 EV and getting lots of press comparing you.

GM did a really great job for a traditional automaker producing a serious, affordable EV.

I really wonder what goes through the minds that brought us this:
Toyota Mirai Goes On Sale With '2,000 Preorders' - HybridCars.com

Oh, have we gotten to the point now where the preorder numbers are being compared? Has this become the EV version of who has the biggest hands?

 

[Snowdog]

Oh, have we gotten to the point now where the preorder numbers are being compared? Has this become the EV version of who has the biggest hands?

That wasn't the point. I am wondering if this is starting to shake the confidence of Toyota Management belief that people won't buy EVs because they take too long to refuel.

Toyota should have been a natural to develop EVs. Instead the Chairman said:
"“The reason why Toyota doesn’t introduce any major [pure electric vehicle] is because we do not believe there is a market to accept it.”"

 

[HookBill]

That wasn't the point. I am wondering if this is starting to shake the confidence of Toyota Management belief that people won't buy EVs because they take too long to refuel.

Toyota should have been a natural to develop EVs. Instead the Chairman said:
"“The reason why Toyota doesn’t introduce any major [pure electric vehicle] is because we do not believe there is a market to accept it.”"

I understood your point. My comment was purely meant for comedic relief.

 

[renim]

Yeah, I'm interested in this too. GM already shown their cards. Nissan did not yet.

Unless Ghosn slaps an Infiniti badge on the LEAF 2, Nissan really truly does not consider it a competitor. After trailblazing the LEAF, Nissan had its chasm year in 2012, and Ghosn was very relieved that Tesla model S validated their gamble on EVs, even if the first generation LEAF was not the success that Renault/Nissan spent $5 billion on.

Nissan senior hierarchy drove and lived LEAF, their families too. Generation LEAF 2 has 550km NEDC, 600 km JC08 range. (remember this is a Japan/Euro company, not a USA company). by comparison the Japan Tesla S70D is 442km NEDC, Tesla P90D is ~505km NEDC, Tesla P90 is 550km NEDC

so roughly for city use, Nissan 2 will match or exceed all Teslas revealed to date.

but Nissan competes with GM/Toyota/VW not Tesla, Nissan watches Tesla closely for ideas to assimilate.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Unless Ghosn slaps an Infiniti badge on the LEAF 2, Nissan really truly does not consider it a competitor.

Actually, Nissan did plan a direct competitor to Tesla: the Infiniti LE. However, they cancelled/postponed it because of the short range. No doubt when the Leaf 2 comes they will have an Infiniti version.

 

[HookBill]

Unless Ghosn slaps an Infiniti badge on the LEAF 2, Nissan really truly does not consider it a competitor. After trailblazing the LEAF, Nissan had its chasm year in 2012, and Ghosn was very relieved that Tesla model S validated their gamble on EVs, even if the first generation LEAF was not the success that Renault/Nissan spent $5 billion on.

Nissan senior hierarchy drove and lived LEAF, their families too. Generation LEAF 2 has 550km NEDC, 600 km JC08 range. (remember this is a Japan/Euro company, not a USA company). by comparison the Japan Tesla S70D is 442km NEDC, Tesla P90D is ~505km NEDC, Tesla P90 is 550km NEDC

so roughly for city use, Nissan 2 will match or exceed all Teslas revealed to date.

but Nissan competes with GM/Toyota/VW not Tesla, Nissan watches Tesla closely for ideas to assimilate.

Imitation is the greatest form of flattery.

 

[Snowdog]

Generation LEAF 2 has 550km NEDC, 600 km JC08 range.

You mean the 200 Mile Leaf that is rumored to be coming someday. OK. Any idea when they are joining the party?

As far as the crazy NEDC ratings, it looks like Telsa purposfully underated to not mislead people.

Some people complain about EPA, but is actually a pretty achievable number for most people. NEDC is pure nonsense.

 

[renim]

You mean the 200 Mile Leaf that is rumored to be coming someday. OK. Any idea when they are joining the party?

As far as the crazy NEDC ratings, it looks like Telsa purposfully underated to not mislead people.

Some people complain about EPA, but is actually a pretty achievable number for most people. NEDC is pure nonsense.

yes it is the 200 mile leaf, thats likely to come about 6 months after the GM Bolt
NEDC is the legally correct rating for Europe
JC08 is the legally correct rating for Japan

they may appear to be pure nonsense, but JC08 is probably the most carefully constructed rating currently in existence, doesn't mean it is a good rating for US range requirements, but for energy usage in megacity dominant Japan.