Model 3 Body Line Still in Development in Detroit - Reports (incl. WSJ)

[Navin]

Perhaps this is a reason for the delay.

Original report on the subject:

Source: "Pilot" Model 3 Body Line Still In Development Near Detroit - DailyKanban

Confirmed by WSJ reported via Twitter:

Charley Grant on Twitter

Charley Grant is a known tesla hater. This is such BS

 

[smartypnz]

This is the funniest thread yet!!

 

[MotoEvCA]

Can't we just admit we all have been lately way too optimistic with the car being shipped on time...?

It could be 6 month late and still be an incredible achievement for Tesla. Even 12 months late would still be impressive.

Sadly, there is too much riding on the success of the Model 3. With this being a volume product for Tesla, a twelve month delay would hit the stock price hard. Tesla is not sitting on a pile of cash or receivables unlike Apple.

Elon set the timeline not the customers. We will have to hold on and hope for the best.

 

[Gwgan]

Article by Edward Niedermeyer....I stopped reading right there. Well known FUDster .

Has anything EN has written about Tesla ever been believed by anyone? Not here, not since at least 2007. Search Results | Tesla Motors Club

 

[stopcrazypp]

Has anything EN has written about Tesla ever been believed by anyone? Not here, not since at least 2007. Search Results | Tesla Motors Club

Note some of those are from his father, Paul Niedermeyer. He was a Tesla skeptic from the Roadster days, then he passed the torch to Edward his son (who took over TTAC).

 

[techmaven]

Another Edward Niedermeyer article that makes no sense.

The "pilot line" is in development near Detroit, but Tesla is using the pilot line in Fremont to hand build Model 3's? Which is it?

And then the article specifically says that the supplier is building a highly automated body line that will operate for 18-24 months, then shipped to Fremont for installation there. So clearly, this supplier's assembly line is not for the initial production at all. More likely, this is part of the increase from 5k/week to 10k/week... it isn't even scheduled to be installed until sometime in 2018. And producing the parts in Michigan and then moving the production to Fremont doesn't mean that the Tesla has to hand build in Fremont.

 

[stopcrazypp]

That article makes no sense. They quote this from Elon:

“The Model 3 – the internal name for designing the machine makes the machine is the – we call it the alien dreadnought. At the point at which the factory looks like an alien dreadnought, then you know you’ve won. It’s like, what the hell is that? So we’ve got alien dreadnought version 0.5 will be Model 3. It will take us another year get to version 1 and probably a major version every two years thereafter. By version 3, it won’t look like anything else.”

The timeline for this pilot body stamping line fits with what Elon is calling Alien dreadnought version 1. And then the article says without any evidence whatsoever: "In the meantime, it seems likely that Tesla is hand-building Model 3 using prototype tooling."

What?!?? Um, no, they are currently building using the existing assembly line technology. You know, like the one used to build the Model S and X. Are those built by hand?

I will just leave you with Tesla's comment about the author of this article from last year:

We don’t know if Mr. Niedermeyer’s motivation is simply to set a world record for axe-grinding or whether he or his associates have something financial to gain by negatively affecting Tesla’s stock price, but it is important to highlight that there are several billion dollars in short sale bets against Tesla. This means that there is a strong financial incentive to greatly amplify minor issues and to create false issues from whole cloth.

I agree with this assessment. This part of the article gives a hint:
"According to this source familiar with Thai Summit America’s business with Tesla, the supplier has been developing a pilot body panel line for Tesla. This highly-automated body line will reportedly operate for 18-24 months, and then be shipped to Tesla’s Fremont, CA production plant if all goes well. According to the same source, Five Lakes Automation, an assembly automation firm specializing in body stamping and welding lines, is also collaborating on the pilot line."
This suggests this pilot line is something that is longer term in terms of automation, since they weren't going to move it into the factory until 18-24 months anyways. What Tesla is doing right now is likely just conventional assembly, similar to Model S/X.

 

[gregd]

This reminds me of a gizmo they had on late night TV some many years back, where you could watch TV without paying a cable bill! Lots of space-age plastic and chrome, with a round satellite dish shaped thing in the middle and knobs and everything. Only $19.95! Every claim they made ended with an exclamation mark!

The more observant called them "glorified rabbit ears"... The thing was, every statement they made was absolutely true, but the way they strung things together made it sound amazing.

The sad part is that after my dad passed away, we found one when cleaning out the house. And he worked for NASA. I guess a sufficiently well crafted story can fool anyone. Or at least some.

 

[BluestarE3]

Whether the story is true, false, or exaggerated, it is becoming increasingly frustrating to see these stories alongside Musk Says Tesla Can Rebuild Puerto Rico’s Power System. I wish Musk could focus on the Model 3 rollout more.

Job One IMO is to

• Communicate more often / accurately to Model 3 customers who have placed reservations
• Produce more Model 3 feature videos in preparation for the 1st wave of non-employee orders

In 2017, customers should not have to order a Model 3 'blind' (not 100% clear on features) and a test drive should be available should a reserving customer want one. Otherwise, Tesla should offer a 100% refund on the car should the customer determine they have a change of heart on the day of delivery.

While the Model 3 is my primary choice, a 2018 Volvo XC60 T8 PHEV will give me 4.9 seconds to 60 MPH, 5-doors, a $5,000 fed tax credit, access to the carpool lane, and....
Adaptive Cruise Control w/Pilot Assist

When Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) detects a slower vehicle in front, the speed automatically adapts to that vehicle. If the vehicle in front slows down and stops, ACC will make the your vehicle stop comfortably behind it, and then keep the brakes engaged. The driver can adjust time gaps. ACC is supplemented with Pilot Assist which not only keeps the set speed and distance to a vehicle in front, but also supports the driver in keeping the car within the lane as well. It relieves the driver from the need to constantly adapt the speed to the vehicle in front and adjust the steering to keep within the lane in low speed traffic. Pilot Assist is available at speeds up to 80 mph. Pilot Assist is restricted in how much acceleration, braking and steering force a driver can apply.

Re: Volvo PHEV. No, thanks. It still has an ICE.

 

[03DSG]

Dictionary: FUD = EN

 

[DR61]

While the Model 3 is my primary choice, a 2018 Volvo XC60 T8 PHEV will give me 4.9 seconds to 60 MPH, 5-doors, a $5,000 fed tax credit, access to the carpool lane, and....

I like Volvo and am glad about their recent announcement about future EV's. But this car gets only up to 17 miles in EV mode, and 28 mpg combined in hybrid gas engine mode, with base price of $53K. That would be OK a few years ago, but not now.

 

[Krugerrand]

It sounds more like a tier one supplier of body parts for Tesla. It's very common for car manufacturers to receive entire stamped subcomponents for cars and then assemble them into the entire car.

Exactly. They are predominately a stamping company doing sub-assemblies at best for Tesla. Much ado about nothing.

 

[BluestarE3]

Wasn't he the guy with the white horse in Animal House?

Yep, that's the guy (or a close relative):

 

[S3XY]

This reminds me of a gizmo they had on late night TV some many years back, where you could watch TV without paying a cable bill! Lots of space-age plastic and chrome, with a round satellite dish shaped thing in the middle and knobs and everything. Only $19.95! Every claim they made ended with an exclamation mark!

The more observant called them "glorified rabbit ears"... The thing was, every statement they made was absolutely true, but the way they strung things together made it sound amazing.

The sad part is that after my dad passed away, we found one when cleaning out the house. And he worked for NASA. I guess a sufficiently well crafted story can fool anyone. Or at least some.

Well you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see through ...uh, never mind.

 

[cwerdna]

It sounds more like a tier one supplier of body parts for Tesla. It's very common for car manufacturers to receive entire stamped subcomponents for cars and then assemble them into the entire car.

In fact, some automakers don't even have stamping.

I saw a documentary on Porsche's plant in Stuttgart which mentioned this. I took a tour earlier this year of that exact plant and they confirmed they have no stamping. A supplier provides them stamped parts. I asked the guide (a very hardcore Porsche enthusiast, IIRC doing an internship at Porsche) and he said it was because they were a small volume automaker and that their plant was in a residential area.

 

[TEG]

By the way, those pictures in that "story" are quite old. Mentioned back in February here:
Tesla Model 3: First pictures of chassis and inside the ‘alien dreadnought’?

Were they picture of Fremont, or something in Detroit? I don't know...

 

[22522]

In fact, some automakers don't even have stamping.

I saw a documentary on Porsche's plant in Stuttgart which mentioned this. I took a tour earlier this year of that exact plant and they confirmed they have no stamping. A supplier provides them stamped parts. I asked the guide (a very hardcore Porsche enthusiast, IIRC doing an internship at Porsche) and he said it was because they were a small volume automaker and that their plant was in a residential area.

Stamping is loud.
Plating is... unhealthy.

 

[secondstage]

Another Edward Niedermeyer article that makes no sense.

The "pilot line" is in development near Detroit, but Tesla is using the pilot line in Fremont to hand build Model 3's? Which is it?

And then the article specifically says that the supplier is building a highly automated body line that will operate for 18-24 months, then shipped to Fremont for installation there. So clearly, this supplier's assembly line is not for the initial production at all. More likely, this is part of the increase from 5k/week to 10k/week... it isn't even scheduled to be installed until sometime in 2018. And producing the parts in Michigan and then moving the production to Fremont doesn't mean that the Tesla has to hand build in Fremont.

Exactly, IF this article is true they talk about a new body line that is planned to increase the manufactoring capacity.

one employee profile estimates that work on the project began in January of 2017

Initial manufactoring engineering began of course before January 2017!
Accoring to the Thaisummit Homepage, they are producing stamping machines and laser welding machines.
I though tesla stamping the model 3 bodypanels with the big stamping machine they have. So this line they talked about is maybe laser welding machines for alien dreadnought 1.0. Of course they have already laser welding machines there, come on nobody is doing this by hand.

 

[cwerdna]

Stamping is loud.

From the guide's explanation, it sounded more like the ground shaking from each cycle of a stamping machine was more a concern for a residential area.

 

[ecarfan]

Currently on the Fremont factory tour you are shown stamping presses (in the same area as the enormous press that has been used for S panels since 2012) that the tour guide says are used for stamping Model 3 panels.

The story of Tesla operating a Model 3 body line in Detroit is suspect.