Model 3 Delivery Estimates for Q4 2017

[FlatSix911]

The Model 3 body line slowed down to 1/10th speed https://www.instagram.com/p/BaAOokSgdCp/

 

[dhanson865]

The Model 3 body line slowed down to 1/10th speed https://www.instagram.com/p/BaAOokSgdCp/

You are about 10 posts behind on that one, see "it's the line not the video at 1/10th" and other responses above.

I repeat that because 90% of the posts on the reddit thread about that clip were of people asking for it to be sped up 10x to make it real time or people reposting a 10x sped up clip as if that represented what the full speed process would be.

 

[Out4aDuck]

If this welding station is operating at 1/10th speed, we're still talking about 500 units per week. That means the bottleneck is somewhere else in the line.

 

[dhanson865]

If this welding station is operating at 1/10th speed, we're still talking about 500 units per week. That means the bottleneck is somewhere else in the line.

Welding stations could interleave inline or the line could bifurcate or there could be multiple complete lines. Whatever the topology you can assume there are more stations.

 

[dennis]

Welding stations could interleave inline or the line could bifurcate or there could be multiple complete lines. Whatever the topology you can assume there are more stations.

Explained another way, the arrival rate of bodies at this station is 1/10 of the ultimate speed of the line. However the actions performed at this station are at their spec'd speed. This allows extra time for QC inspections.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Model 3 is relatively simple. I'd imagine the speed will be quite high by December.

 

[bdy0627]

I think if you did this poll a few months ago, the results would have been pretty different. Expectations were higher until reality set in.

 

[elasalle]

Even if we are at 50% of projected goal in Dec, that would be 2.5K/week. i.e. 10K in Dec.
So 10-15K gets my vote.

 

[bdy0627]

Even if we are at 50% of projected goal in Dec, that would be 2.5K/week. i.e. 10K in Dec.
So 10-15K gets my vote.

That's if we exit November with a rate of 2,500 per week. If we exit December at that rate, there won't be 10K in December. Will we be at 2,500/week in 6-7 weeks? I vote no.

 

[bonaire]

Early in the year I estimated Model 3 deliveries at 6000 for 2017. I reluctantly voted 5k-10k. The layoff thing of Friday may be iceberg tips. But on the bright side, the Model 3 reservation list is very good to lure buyers of inventory Model S 75 from.

 

[geneclean55]

Early in the year I estimated Model 3 deliveries at 6000 for 2017. I reluctantly voted 5k-10k. The layoff thing of Friday may be iceberg tips. But on the bright side, the Model 3 reservation list is very good to lure buyers of inventory Model S 75 from.

What is your definition of layoff?