Model 3 Delivery Estimates for Q4 2017

[generalenthu]

This is going to be tricky with the S curve and all, so the bragging rights should be that much more valuable. I will enter my guess as 8500.

Also, how this number evolves over time should be interesting to watch. You can always change your vote.

 

[jimmyjohn]

2017 Q4 is going to be CRAPtacular; full of words like "hell" and "bottleneck" and "S-curve" --- translation to failure. The news is getting worse by the day --- and we don't even know what's going on.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

December should still be a good month even if delayed by one month. I predict 15k to 17k deliveries. For reference:

 

[dm33]

Elon's latest tweet, "Assume the worst. Now I need to get back to work...".
Sounds ominous, like not a short delay. I'm assuming months of delay, so I'd expect just a few hundred maybe a thousand built in Q4. Still by hand.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Elon also said this:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Bear in mind that the production ramp is an exponential curve. Late Oct is possible, but not certain. Literally every day makes a big difference."

I take that to mean that they can solve the bottlenecks by late Oct, but non-employee configurator opens in 6-8 weeks. My interpretation is that between late Oct and late Nov, Tesla will fill thousands of employee orders, be at 1K/wk delivery rate by end of Nov, and deliver another 5K or so in Dec to non-employees, so total ~10K in Q4.

 

[techmaven]

People here, and elsewhere, are still thinking linearly. That's not how this is going to go. The point of the s-curve is that delays like this is what causes the s-curve. It is the s-curve. As they resolve the bottlenecks, the rate rises very quickly until they hit the kinds of optimizations that get difficult again. What would cause continual delay is ongoing problems with the parts or design, like the door seals, the falcon wing door actuators, and the front doors of the Model X. But of course, the Model 3 doesn't have those kinds of very difficult to solve problems that will hamper production for the first 1-2 model years.

I think some people forget that the Model S and the X both went through many design cycles after they started shipping. Plenty of initial designs of various parts where improved or outright discarded and re-implemented in the first two years of production in both vehicles. To find out that the Model 3 initial production vehicles require some additional re-work is completely expected.

At this point, there is nothing to indicate that the Model 3 isn't just going along the s-curve, just not at the target that Musk initially thought. That doesn't mean they can't build a couple of thousand in October, or 5,000 in November, or 15,000 in December. My assumption is that after getting past the initial parts and design problems, and then the initial production issues was always targeted for late Sept through end of October, so they are right in the mix of it. Then hitting the 40-60% of the 5k/week mark is pretty easily. Getting to the 80% mark in December is the next big hurdle, and then hitting 100% of that mark (which is probably slightly sandbagged) by end of December or sometime in January.

As a result, my feeling is that they have full line start up some time in October. Assuming early in the 3rd week of October, then maybe 1000 vehicles built. November, about 6,000 and initial outside of employee deliveries but without a configurator. Only choices are wheels and color. And December, about 14,000. In January, the same 14k or so with a week's shutdown but higher rate.

 

[D-egg-O]

Elon's latest tweet, "Assume the worst. Now I need to get back to work...".
Sounds ominous, like not a short delay. I'm assuming months of delay, so I'd expect just a few hundred maybe a thousand built in Q4. Still by hand.

This is why I am guessing employee only deliveries for all of 2017, which put my guesstimate between 5k-10k.

 

[techmaven]

This is why I am guessing employee only deliveries for all of 2017, which put my guesstimate between 5k-10k.

If they hit 60% of the target production rate by early December, that's two to three week's worth of production. Basically, you are saying that they don't resolve the initial production problems until early December. That's quite pessimistic.

Another point of reference... the Model X ramp, deliveries per month:
6, 4, 5, 199, 270, 270, 1860, 795, 1600, 2145.

This is a much more difficult vehicle to ramp up production... and after the 1,860, they were still sorting out door seals and every vehicle had to have door seals replaced that also held up deliveries... and remember, the target production rate was about 50% of 2,500/week, or 1,250/week... but the actual deliveries is based on the order mix (the S and the X share the general assembly line).

The target for Model 3 is 5,000/week for the initial production line, or 4 times the rate of the Model X production. We likely are already past the first six months of Model X production equivalent.

 

[D-egg-O]

If they hit 60% of the target production rate by early December, that's two to three week's worth of production. Basically, you are saying that they don't resolve the initial production problems until early December. That's quite pessimistic.

Another point of reference... the Model X ramp, deliveries per month:
6, 4, 5, 199, 270, 270, 1860, 795, 1600, 2145.

This is a much more difficult vehicle to ramp up production... and after the 1,860, they were still sorting out door seals and every vehicle had to have door seals replaced that also held up deliveries... and remember, the target production rate was about 50% of 2,500/week, or 1,250/week... but the actual deliveries is based on the order mix (the S and the X share the general assembly line).

The target for Model 3 is 5,000/week for the initial production line, or 4 times the rate of the Model X production. We likely are already past the first six months of Model X production equivalent.

Yes. It is pessimistic, which is why it's my worst case guesstimate.

 

[schonelucht]

Latest Elon tweets are not encouraging. 5k would be an excellent result.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Another way to look at Elon's tweet, he says that:

1) design studio open to non-employees in 6-8 weeks
2) for "First Production" there is no need to configure, just pick color

So what would be in the design studio if/when it opens? SR? Is it possible that Tesla could start delivering non-employee "First Production" cars before the 6-8 weeks target for design studio? Note that Elon's 6-8 week answer was specific to the question on when the design studio will open, and not to the bottleneck fix. When he mentioned the bottleneck fix in a later tweet, he said late Oct is possible, although not guaranteed. I suspect the target dates for bottleneck fix and design studio opening are two separate dates in Elon's head.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I'm guessing <5k. Then again, I've been consistently wrong about these guesses!

 

[dhanson865]

I think they'll produce more than 5,000 in Q4 but deliver less than 5,000 in Q4. I thought it was interesting that the poll went for delivered instead of produced. I fully expect cars built in mid/late December to not get delivered until Jan and for the run rate to be high at that point leaving that difference between produced and delivered.

 

[Tdriver]

Lots of reasonable assumptions being made here.........but........listen to this. Yesterday on Google News I read an article by an analyst that was told the following by what he called a very reliable source. The source said that Tesla is lacking some very critical production equipment and that this equipment to being sourced from an outside company. This will take several months to complete. In the meantime Tesla will have to hand build M3's and be limited to 100-200 cars a month. Now, if this is all true, there is a problem, and this may be why we have been seeing monthly production of 1-200 cars in this past quarter. If its not true, great, but it scared me enough to sell my Tesla stock yesterday and I am not buying it back until I see a clear path to reasonable production rates. Lets hope for the best.

 

[techmaven]

Lots of reasonable assumptions being made here.........but........listen to this. Yesterday on Google News I read an article by an analyst that was told the following by what he called a very reliable source. The source said that Tesla is lacking some very critical production equipment and that this equipment to being sourced from an outside company. This will take several months to complete. In the meantime Tesla will have to hand build M3's and be limited to 100-200 cars a month. Now, if this is all true, there is a problem, and this may be why we have been seeing monthly production of 1-200 cars in this past quarter. If its not true, great, but it scared me enough to sell my Tesla stock yesterday and I am not buying it back until I see a clear path to reasonable production rates. Lets hope for the best.

Fake news. Neidermeyer, the serial FUDster strikes again.

 

[CSFTN]

That article was on SA, no (or at least Neidermeyer was the author)? A site encouraging and assisting shorts is NOT a reliable source. Nor is WSJ, at least not in modern times.

 

[generalenthu]

I think they'll produce more than 5,000 in Q4 but deliver less than 5,000 in Q4. I thought it was interesting that the poll went for delivered instead of produced. I fully expect cars built in mid/late December to not get delivered until Jan and for the run rate to be high at that point leaving that difference between produced and delivered.

That's a fair question. This thread started with a delivery discussion related to the US federal tax incentive timelines expiring. I thought @techmaven was very optimistic, which this poll is showing.

That said, Tesla will be in a rush to deliver and the owners would be in a rush to take delivery to get the incentive for tax year 2017, rather than 18. I don't expect more than a 2k delta between the two figures as all these deliveries will still be out of Fremont delivery center for the most part.

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

 

[RobStark]

11,111

 

[bdy0627]

Lots of reasonable assumptions being made here.........but........listen to this. Yesterday on Google News I read an article by an analyst that was told the following by what he called a very reliable source. The source said that Tesla is lacking some very critical production equipment and that this equipment to being sourced from an outside company. This will take several months to complete. In the meantime Tesla will have to hand build M3's and be limited to 100-200 cars a month. Now, if this is all true, there is a problem, and this may be why we have been seeing monthly production of 1-200 cars in this past quarter. If its not true, great, but it scared me enough to sell my Tesla stock yesterday and I am not buying it back until I see a clear path to reasonable production rates. Lets hope for the best.

Probably not a great idea to entirely base your investment decisions upon one analyst on Google News. Cause you to due diligence on the claims? Sure. Immediately sell all of your stock? Uh, no.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The target for Model 3 is 5,000/week for the initial production line, or 4 times the rate of the Model X production. We likely are already past the first six months of Model X production equivalent.

Could you please elaborate on the bolded sentence? How do you figure that this is the case?