Model 3 demand question

[astrowunder]

Sorry again- I'm soapboxing. The MOST annoying part as a Tesla supporter (and business owner) is that if they had given me a 4 week delivery date, then moved it back a few days, I would have been ecstatic instead of disgruntled.

 

[jjrandorin]

My experience ( also with a Model 3 performance with Performance package) was the exact opposite of yours, so I dont think its a systemic thing. I think (just like other businesses) that some "dealerships" (sales center / delivery centers) are better than others (or have / had people who were more organized, or better connected, etc etc).

 

[astrowunder]

My experience ( also with a Model 3 performance with Performance package) was the exact opposite of yours, so I dont think its a systemic thing. I think (just like other businesses) that some "dealerships" (sales center / delivery centers) are better than others (or have / had people who were more organized, or better connected, etc etc).

I hope so. I know that problems tend to get amplified on the forums. Glad to hear you had a good experience. Mine was so shockingly poor I didn't really know what to make of it. I had to be talked out of canceling my order after schedule change number 4 by a current model 3 owner. At least schedule change number 6 was actually an earlier date, in full disclosure.

 

[David_Cary]

It was just over 3 weeks for my 2 week lead time. I am having to change the date which hasn't been as easy as it should be....

 

[voip-ninja]

I was shocked how fast I got my SR+. Six days from order to delivery. I would not be shocked if demand is weaker than expected. If you look at the top selling cars in the US, everything that sold over 150,000 units a year was either an truck/SUV or had a base price of around $20k. With the tax credit going away, I just can't see the M3 selling more than 150-200k units per year within the US. Now, I have very little sense of foreign demand. Can the rest of the world make up 300-350k units? Maybe.

I think the Y will see a decent amount of demand in the US above that level, and when they get the pickup out, that will do very well. Tesla is positioned well for the long term if they can iron out any remaining quality issues and can expand their service center footprint. It will be tough to be mainstream when folks have to drive hours to the nearest service center, even from reasonably populated places like upstate NY.

In the short run, my opinion is they are in a bit of a cash crunch. I wish they'd just bite the bullet and issue more equity so they can stabilize themselves and continue to grow at a rapid pace. I also think Elon needs to bring in a solid COO. He is great visionary, but he needs someone who can dive into the details, optimize processes, and the like while he concentrates on the big picture. Much like how SpaceX is run - where there is far less margin for defects or unexpected issues.

This makes perfect sense.... now go post this in the investment thread so you can get 100 downvotes from hysterical Tesla cultist investors.

 

[T-Will]

What happened to the great mass of supposed reservation holders supposedly waiting for the SR?

Canceled my reservation because I was hoping for the full $7500 tax credit, so now I'm just waiting for used Model 3's to come down into my target price range.

 

[voip-ninja]

I'm never going to understand consumers that are going to expect a Model 3 type vehicle with $15,000 worth of batteries and electric motors to retail for a similar price to a $25,000 Accord or Camry that has a $3,000 engine/transmission/gas-tank.

 

[notAnExpert]

I'm never going to understand consumers that are going to expect a Model 3 type vehicle with $15,000 worth of batteries and electric motors to retail for a similar price to a $25,000 Accord or Camry that has a $3,000 engine/transmission/gas-tank.

That’s because most consumers don’t care about what it costs to make a car, only what it costs to buy a car that would take them comfortably and reliably from Point A to Point B. An average consumer worries about affordability before environmental impact.

 

[jpk195]

Canceled my reservation because I was hoping for the full $7500 tax credit, so now I'm just waiting for used Model 3's to come down into my target price range.

Were you expecting to pay 25k for a Tesla? That’s a bit reasonable if so, especially since the ownership cost of a 35k Tesla is pretty close to a 25k ICE sedan.

 

[Matt L]

I'm scratching my head over the advertised 2-4 week delivery window. Production rates are around 1K/day, right? With the US tax credit about to half again fairly soon and prices are about to go up 3% within days (except for $35K) demand seems like it ought to be very strong, possibly resulting in people who want their cars before the US fed tax break halves missing out. Yet somehow, even with shipping cars overseas, Tesla only has a backlog of 2-4 weeks? That's only 14K to 28K Model 3s. Doesn't that sound like a demand problem? Maybe I'm missing something, but when Tesla had many months of backlog, I wasn't concerned. I realize Tesla still has the lease lever, and increasing international demand, but it doesn't seem like 10K/week is a necessary target. What minimum rate does Tesla need to maintain on the line in order to keep efficiencies high enough to allow the $35K or $37K car to still be profitable.

They are also building and shipping huge groups of international deliveries.

 

[voip-ninja]

That’s because most consumers don’t care about what it costs to make a car, only what it costs to buy a car that would take them comfortably and reliably from Point A to Point B. An average consumer worries about affordability before environmental impact.

Well, the .gov can push massive fuel taxes to represent the real world 'cost' that carbon fuels supposedly cost. Worked out well when France tried that.

Another option is to bomb India and Chinese coal power plants since even if EU + North American + Korean + Japanese carbon emissions were magically reduced to zero the global temperature is going to continue to increase due to Chinese and Indian coal/gas burning ALONE.

OR...... Musk and company can shift the product ID of Tesla to more of a luxury/performance category with environmental benefit being a great extra perk rather than banking on the idea that enormous numbers of Americans think that driving an electrical car when coupled with all of their other energy sapping habits is somehow going to save the planet.

We need technological solutions to global warming and electric vehicles are just one very small piece of that. If people ate less meat for example it would have an enormous impact on climate change since methane is a far more effective greenhouse gas than CO2.... but you see very few politicians try to encourage Americans to become vegans or even limit meat consumption to a few days a week since they know that it would result in street riots.

 

[T-Will]

Were you expecting to pay 25k for a Tesla? That’s a bit reasonable if so, especially since the ownership cost of a 35k Tesla is pretty close to a 25k ICE sedan.

I was expecting mid to low $30k range since I’d want FSD. Still a higher TCO than my 2005 Honda Civic.

 

[voip-ninja]

I was expecting mid to low $30k range since I’d want FSD. Still a higher TCO than my 2005 Honda Civic.

I would say you were hoping for that as expecting that is highly unrealistic. You can't even get a LEAF with comparable features at those prices.

You can't find a mid to low $30K ICE car with FSD, or even high quality TACC for that matter.

Certainly for someone who wants what a Model 3 with those features delivers at the low to mid 30's price range should be looking used.

 

[JPWhite]

"I would say you were hoping for that as expecting that is highly unrealistic. You can't even get a LEAF with comparable features at those prices."

Let's say such a vehicle were to become available, then the poster "might" "consider" buying one if the wind was in the right direction.

 

[T-Will]

I would say you were hoping for that as expecting that is highly unrealistic. You can't even get a LEAF with comparable features at those prices.

You can't find a mid to low $30K ICE car with FSD, or even high quality TACC for that matter.

Certainly for someone who wants what a Model 3 with those features delivers at the low to mid 30's price range should be looking used.

Initially, I was hoping for a $35k standard range with FSD would put it around $43k, minus $7500 federal incentive and $2500 state incentive, would’ve put it around $33k-ish. That won’t happen now, but I’ve already seen long range premiums with EAP for $40k on the used market. So those are realistic expectations in the near future.

(Sorry for being slightly off topic, but was just answering why someone might have canceled their reservation now that the standard range is available.)

 

[DanH]

I rembember standing in line on the day of the reservation and thinking to myself - I must have been in the wrong profession. There were quite a few people in their 20’s who were planning to buy a $40K+ car. I wouldn’t even dream Of paying for anything over 30K, especially for a car at such a young age.

 

[Casmium]

There is still a lot of people overseas who will want a SR, and people who lease, demand should stay pretty strong till the y is available, most people who stop to ask me about my 3 when they see me loading stuff into the frunk have never heard of Tesla