The instant VINs are apparently from ordering off the "existing inventory" page. There are a number of scenarios that I can think of:
1. Tesla hands out a VIN whenever anyone orders, and slaps that on the frame that's going to their order whenever they get around to building it.
2. Tesla has the production sequence so well structured that they can incorporate new orders as soon as they are placed.
3. Tesla has a predefined production sequence, and when you buy from existing inventory you're essentially taking a spot in the production sequence.
With the VINs being assigned so early, we can't use that event as an indication of "getting close to delivery".
That has been the way they've worked, but the Q3 earnings call included a statement that they're just shooting themselves in the foot by sticking with end of quarter pushes. Those pushes are clogging up the logistical network, costing Tesla money, and they hate spending money that they don't have to.
Page 21 of the
Q3 Shareholder Deck shows the following figure which attempts to show how their current behavior (blue lines) needs to be supplanted by smooth deliveries (red lines).
View attachment 865959
So we may see some changes in the cadence of deliveries. For reference from last quarter, deliveries were really active starting July 23. Here we are at October 20, and nobody is talking about being able to schedule their delivery yet. We know that Tesla has a bunch of vehicles built that people already have VINs for, so I can only assume that they're changing up the logistics in an effort to get closer to the "smooth delivery" cadence. Otherwise, they'd already be at the delivery sites, ready to go.
Edit: VINs were being assigned well before July 20, so something has changed in Tesla's operations.