Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

[Jacoo56]

Tesla made huge changes from the 2020 to 2021 model year in Q4 2020 so the idea that they don't or won't make changes between model years is wrong. They might not make huge changes this go round but it is absolutely a valid concern there could be changes starting in October for the 2022 model year. In fact there probably will be at least some changes (likely a range increase for sure). Whether it is worth waiting for is all speculation and up to the individual person to decide.

Also no need to get chippy bc you got called out for providing wrong info as it happens all the time. I've gotten corrected many times myself.

Look at the 2018-2020 M3. I dont recall any feature changes in that period. They made minor fixes (weather seals, etc), but no big changes like what happened with 2021 refresh. those getting a Q4 car, will have the same car as the Q3 people. I would guess that the M3 doesnt get a design refresh until 2023. It is not a valid concern. IF im wrong, message me next year and ill venmo you $50.

There is no way they add the 4680s to Q4 cars to extend considerable range

 

[Doug03]

Tesla made huge changes from the 2020 to 2021 model year in Q4 2020 so the idea that they don't or won't make changes between model years is wrong. They might not make huge changes this go round but it is absolutely a valid concern there could be changes starting in October for the 2022 model year. In fact there probably will be at least some changes (likely a range increase for sure). Whether it is worth waiting for is all speculation and up to the individual person to decide.

Also no need to get chippy bc you got called out for providing wrong info as it happens all the time. I've gotten corrected many times myself.

But other than the 2021 refresh I don't think there were any changes for a few years. The 2020 is the same as the 2019 which is the same as the 2018. I haven't been following Tesla all that closely over the years so they may have made very minor changes in those years that I'm unaware of. Except for things like battery technology (see the Model Y and the 4680 batteries), I think Tesla usually don't announce details about any updates. So they could be planning to greatly improve the Model 3 for 2022 and we just don't know it. But as someone that is hoping to get a Model 3 near the end of Q3, I'm not worried about missing out on any model year 2022 improvements. I just want my car.

 

[StealthLSU]

same here, no movement which is weird because the last 5 days the front date moved to the left one day each morning.

Aug 25 - Sept 7

Aug 26 - Sept 7

Aug 27 - Sept 7

Aug 28 - Sept 7

Aug 29 - Sept 7

 

[Jacoo56]

But other than the 2021 refresh I don't think there were any changes for a few years. The 2020 is the same as the 2019 which is the same as the 2018. I haven't been following Tesla all that closely over the years so they may have made very minor changes in those years that I'm unaware of. Except for things like battery technology (see the Model Y and the 4680 batteries), I think Tesla usually don't announce details about any updates. So they could be planning to greatly improve the Model 3 for 2022 and we just don't know it. But as someone that is hoping to get a Model 3 near the end of Q3, I'm not worried about missing out on any model year 2022 improvements. I just want my car.

The 4680 battery is in initial ramp right now. Most likely candidates would be MY and Semi. They wont hit volume production on 4680 until 2023

Tesla gives rare update on 4680 battery cell production: still some work to do

Tesla has released a rare update on 4680 battery cell production, which is critical to launching the automaker’s upcoming new...

electrek.co

 

[Doug03]

Wonder if on days the edd doesn’t move, it’s a sign of some kind of halt in the factory or if it’s just a technical issue.

I think it's more likely that they just haven't updated the EDD yet today. Lately the updates have been right at 7:30 but that wasn't always the case.

I supect that one of the parameters their algorithm uses to calculate EDD is how many cars they manufactured yesterday. If they miss their target then EDDs slip. If they exceed it then EDDs get earlier. If they're pretty close to the target then EDDs would either stay the same or tighten (like the start date moving a day to the right as a lot of us have been seeing).

Of course it's all just speculation. For all I know EDD goes up or down based on the flip of a coin. Maybe today the coin landed on its side.

 

[jrmt23]

same here, no movement which is weird because the last 5 days the front date moved to the left one day each morning.

Aug 25 - Sept 7

Aug 26 - Sept 7

Aug 27 - Sept 7

Aug 28 - Sept 7

Aug 29 - Sept 7

You ordered about a week after me, and we have a similar EDD. Maybe our cars will be on the same batch heading to texas.

 

[Doug03]

The 4680 battery is in initial ramp right now. Most likely candidates would be MY and Semi. They wont hit volume production on 4680 until 2023

Tesla gives rare update on 4680 battery cell production: still some work to do

Tesla has released a rare update on 4680 battery cell production, which is critical to launching the automaker’s upcoming new...

electrek.co

Right. My point was that with battery technology they usually lay out a roadmap. I know we can assume that every model will get the battery improvements eventually but the public has an idea of what models will get the new tech first and roughly when that will be (or when Tesla thinks it will be, we know estimates can be optimistic). Contrast that with a change like the heated steering wheel where we didn't really know it was coming until people were using it. I think even some people that got the first 2021 refreshed Model 3s didn't see the option for a heated steering wheel; and it was uncertain if they had the hardware and needed a software update or if some early 2021 models just never got the hardware.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Look at the 2018-2020 M3. I dont recall any feature changes in that period. They made minor fixes (weather seals, etc), but no big changes like what happened with 2021 refresh. those getting a Q4 car, will have the same car as the Q3 people. I would guess that the M3 doesnt get a design refresh until 2023. It is not a valid concern. IF im wrong, message me next year and ill venmo you $50.

There is no way they add the 4680s to Q4 cars to extend considerable range

But other than the 2021 refresh I don't think there were any changes for a few years. The 2020 is the same as the 2019 which is the same as the 2018. I haven't been following Tesla all that closely over the years so they may have made very minor changes in those years that I'm unaware of. Except for things like battery technology (see the Model Y and the 4680 batteries), I think Tesla usually don't announce details about any updates. So they could be planning to greatly improve the Model 3 for 2022 and we just don't know it. But as someone that is hoping to get a Model 3 near the end of Q3, I'm not worried about missing out on any model year 2022 improvements. I just want my car.

I never said anything about 4680 batteries as that isn't coming to the Model 3 anytime soon but there will almost certainly be an EPA range increase due to improved 2170 batteries. This has been a trend for sometime now for Tesla.

The idea that you can just say "don't worry no changes coming Tesla doesn't do model years and they just refreshed last year" is 100% incorrect. Could be a battery range increase. Could be air suspension. Could be a 12v lithium battery. Could be anything. Could be everything. Could be nothing. The point is making blanket statements and passing them off as fact to others helps no one on here.

Go back and read the forum threads from this time last year when everyone was getting their 2020 models delivered and had no idea 2021 would be major changes. You'll find lots of buyers remorse for those who just took delivery and scrambling by those who hadn't taken delivery yet trying to get a VIN number with the 2021 model year.

 

[shipwreck75]

new day, same EDD, hoping that is a good sign, window is tight Estimated Delivery: August 31 - September 09, 7/13 order

 

[ellingmel]

So I picked up M3 today after being called numerous times to see if I could pick up early which I was pleased about. I picked up at the Costa Mesa location and for those of you who pick up there, good luck finding parking. They don’t allow you in their parking lot and the street is filled with employee vehicles.


I arrived approximately 30 minutes early to watch a couple pick up their MY and observed one employee shuttling cars to the front for deliveries. I stood behind my car for that time after I verified my vin and proceeded to walk around it.
I observed a scratch on the front passenger bumper but nothing I was going to lose sleep over. It didn’t matter anyhow as no employee ever asked if there were any issues. They just gathered my paperwork and check and disappeared. Pretty underwhelming experience but there’s clearly worse experiences out there and I’m just happy to have a car again.
From order to delivery it took 50 days.
View attachment 697389

Congrats! Did you happen to see my MSM model 3 there? Apparently it is to go to Spokane from Costa Mesa - but no word on if it will ever make it!!

 

[Ssheehan]

I think it's more likely that they just haven't updated the EDD yet today. Lately the updates have been right at 7:30 but that wasn't always the case.

I supect that one of the parameters their algorithm uses to calculate EDD is how many cars they manufactured yesterday. If they miss their target then EDDs slip. If they exceed it then EDDs get earlier. If they're pretty close to the target then EDDs would either stay the same or tighten (like the start date moving a day to the right as a lot of us have been seeing).

Of course it's all just speculation. For all I know EDD goes up or down based on the flip of a coin. Maybe today the coin landed on its side.

Yeah, maybe I’m just a little worried because my car was already delayed and was supposed to be built on the 13th. It’s suppose to be built this Friday and I’m just hoping there’s not another delay.

 

[Conejo]

Just did my 3rd refresh of the day and got my VIN!!! EDD is 18-23rd

 

[FrozenExplorer]

Received my VIN this morning. Was becoming a frustrating ordeal being one of the oldest order dates left in the US that I knew of. In the end, got my VIN 69 days after ordering, nice right? Almost worth it having to wait extra . EDD now 08/28-09/03. Will post final EDD plot after receipt of car.

 

[Doug03]

I never said anything about 4680 batteries as that isn't coming to the Model 3 anytime soon but there will almost certainly be an EPA range increase due to improved 2170 batteries. This has been a trend for sometime now for Tesla.

The idea that you can just say "don't worry no changes coming Tesla doesn't do model years and they just refreshed last year" is 100% incorrect. Could be a battery range increase. Could be air suspension. Could be a 12v lithium battery. Could be anything. Could be everything. Could be nothing. The point is making blanket statements and passing them off as fact to others helps no one on here.

Go back and read the forum threads from this time last year when everyone was getting their 2020 models delivered and had no idea 2021 would be major changes. You'll find lots of buyers remorse for those who just took delivery and scrambling by those who hadn't taken delivery yet trying to get a VIN number with the 2021 model year.

Understood. I mentioned the 4680s. And I only brought those up to contrast how Tesla has handled announcing those details, with how they have handled announcing details like the 2021 Model 3 Refresh. In one case we have a rough idea of their intentions in advance of any changes. If someone doesn't want to buy a car until the 4680s come out, they can make a somewhat informed decision on that. Versus with the 2021 refresh where, as you mentioned, we didn't really know what was changing until people got behind the wheel of their new vehicles. I agree with you, we don't know what Tesla has planned for 2022. But recent history suggests that after Tesla makes changes like they did in 2021, they usually stick with it for a few years. Maybe they will make a ton of improvements that will make me wish I got a car that came off the assembly line a few months later. But I purchased my Model 3 knowing I'd get it around the time 2022s would start being produced. And I'm not worried that I'll be missing out on anything. Right now I'd take a 2021 Model 3 in September over a 2022 Model 3 in November. Now if Tesla adds a HUD, maybe I'll have to eat my words a little.

 

[Ssheehan]

Just did my 3rd refresh of the day and got my VIN!!! EDD is 18-23rd

Sweet! with my edd being 2 days behind you, hopefully I’m on schedule to get my VIn on Friday.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Understood. I mentioned the 4680s. And I only brought those up to contrast how Tesla has handled announcing those details, with how they have handled announcing details like the 2021 Model 3 Refresh. In one case we have a rough idea of their intentions in advance of any changes. If someone doesn't want to buy a car until the 4680s come out, they can make a somewhat informed decision on that. Versus with the 2021 refresh where, as you mentioned, we didn't really know what was changing until people got behind the wheel of their new vehicles. I agree with you, we don't know what Tesla has planned for 2022. But recent history suggests that after Tesla makes changes like they did in 2021, they usually stick with it for a few years. Maybe they will make a ton of improvements that will make me wish I got a car that came off the assembly line a few months later. But I purchased my Model 3 knowing I'd get it around the time 2022s would start being produced. And I'm not worried that I'll be missing out on anything. Right now I'd take a 2021 Model 3 in September over a 2022 Model 3 in November. Now if Tesla adds a HUD, maybe I'll have to eat my words a little.

I agree and that's the same boat I'm in! I am fine with my decision but some others may not be or may be worried.

 

[NJBiggie]

Just got the "Tesla Virtual Orientation" email...no VIN and same EDD as yesterday after nearly two weeks of the front end moving 1 day right while back end stayed the same. OD 7/6 EDD 8/31-9/8. Anecdotally, anyone have a sense of timing b/w the TVO email and VIN?

 

[kempd31]

I got the virtual orientation email so that's some sort of progress I guess. No EDD change this morning.

 

[Conejo]

Sweet! with my edd being 2 days behind you, hopefully I’m on schedule to get my VIn on Friday.

Especially since you ordered before me, I’d imagine yours is imminent. Haven’t been contacted by anyone yet to schedule and I never got the emails that a few people have, so I was honestly surprised

 

[Doug03]

Just got the "Tesla Virtual Orientation" email...no VIN and same EDD as yesterday after nearly two weeks of the front end moving 1 day right while back end stayed the same. OD 7/6 EDD 8/31-9/8. Anecdotally, anyone have a sense of timing b/w the TVO email and VIN?

Got that email too.
Similar dates to you. Ordered July 8, EDD currently August 31 - September 9 and it hasn't changed since the 7:30 AM EST update yesterday.
Here's hoping we get our VINs this week!