Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[RTPEV]

So... definitely a jump compared to their January estimate, which is a good sign, but nowhere near 2,500 a week. Hopefully we see a big jump in March numbers.

More importantly, it's not even 1000 / week. Although we need to take into consideration these are DELIVERY estimates, not PRODUCTION estimates. It would probably be more valid to take that 2485 and use that as an indication of January PRODUCTION rate (or at least late Jan to early Feb).

 

[navguy12]

There was an issue with production between 19-27 February

Troy: you used the past tense.

In your opinion has this period of slowed and/or stopped production over?

Can you elaborate on why yes or no?

Thanks. Cheers.

 

[Troy]

@navguy12, it's based on VIN assignments. See the chart here.

 

[Foxhound199]

Am I reading this correctly that all the reported invites this week are near the west coast? Could indicate these are the ones Tesla believes they can get delivered quickly just before the end of the quarter (March 31).

 

[Nurkbonis]

Yep.

Am I reading this correctly that all the reported invites this week are near the west coast? Could indicate these are the ones Tesla believes they can get delivered quickly just before the end of the quarter (March 31).

 

[VIKING26]

Am I reading this correctly that all the reported invites this week are near the west coast? Could indicate these are the ones Tesla believes they can get delivered quickly just before the end of the quarter (March 31).

Good observation. I hope that means most of us that configured last week will be driving our cars before the end of this month!

 

[Kipp]

@Troy, @chojn1, Could you add a chart under the "Deferring Rate" pie chart that has "Deferring Rate of Non-Owners"? There is an assumption that there are a lot of non-owners that generally want the SR version and will be deferring. I've been noticing that the Deferring Rate has dropped from about 30% to 27% today. This drop indicates that more people are actually not deferring. I would suppose that, like me, they want the tax credit so are willing to pay the extra $ for LR and PUP. I find it hard to believe that only 10% of non-owners want the LR PUP. Maybe after the tax credit goes away, more people will want the SR.

 

[S3XY]

To add to this -- the suggestion that Tesla would schedule deliveries prematurely to raise cash makes no sense. If they added 2000 cars to the queue at $2500 per car that would generate only $5 million in cash, and only temporarily. Tesla has over $3 billion in cash on hand, so this is barely a rounding error. Plus, the vast majority of deliveries (over 90%) have occurred within 6 weeks of configuration according to the spreadsheet.

And if he's suggesting that they're holding back on production then he's still wrong. Even if their margin on each car is only 10% they would be adding almost $6,000 in cash per car.

 

[Kipp]

Could you add a chart under the "Deferring Rate" pie chart that has "Deferring Rate of Non-Owners"?

I found the info I was looking for in the table below the "Deferring Rate" called "Deferrals". There is a non-owner column which contains the data I was looking for. Not sure if it was added recently or I just didn't see it.

 

[Troy]

@Kipp, @chojn1 added this feature yesterday. We are planning to improve it by excluding outdated data. I will work on this later. Thanks for the feedback.

 

[suwaneedad]

It looks to me like Tesla will hit their "3-6 week delivery" estimate for anyone who configured by Feb 17, essentially by end of Q1.
Using CJ/Troy spreadsheet (which changes by the second) as of this moment, there were 12,500 invites thru 2/17.
70% of invites configure, = 8,750 orders.
8,750 - 7,561 deliveries = 1190 orders to fulfill by 3/31 for the "3-6 week" estimate to hold up.
1190 orders / ~670 current weekly production rate = 1.8 weeks of production, leaving 2 weeks for transport/prep/delivery by 3/31.
Naturally the above won't occur for a variety of ~isolated reasons (perhaps a black batch is the last to be made, and someone in upper Maine ordered one and is out of the country the last week of March), and naturally some who configured post-2/17 will have their cars by 3/31 as well (more likely those living near Fremont, and/or ordering the large-batch popular colors such as blue and charcoal).

CJ/Troy sheet has been amazing thus far. And its current information predicts those who configured thru 2/17 will take delivery by 3/31.
Pretty cool.

 

[LV Acrobat]

It looks to me like Tesla will hit their "3-6 week delivery" estimate for anyone who configured by Feb 17, essentially by end of Q1.
Using CJ/Troy spreadsheet (which changes by the second) as of this moment, there were 12,500 invites thru 2/17.
70% of invites configure, = 8,750 orders.
8,750 - 7,561 deliveries = 1190 orders to fulfill by 3/31 for the "3-6 week" estimate to hold up.
1190 orders / ~670 current weekly production rate = 1.8 weeks of production, leaving 2 weeks for transport/prep/delivery by 3/31.
Naturally the above won't occur for a variety of ~isolated reasons (perhaps a black batch is the last to be made, and someone in upper Maine ordered one and is out of the country the last week of March), and naturally some who configured post-2/17 will have their cars by 3/31 as well (more likely those living near Fremont, and/or ordering the large-batch popular colors such as blue and charcoal).

CJ/Troy sheet has been amazing thus far. And its current information predicts those who configured thru 2/17 will take delivery by 3/31.
Pretty cool.

I hope so. I’m starting to think black was a bad choice...

 

[suwaneedad]

I hope so. I’m starting to think black was a bad choice...

I doubt that black was a bad choice...~1in8 configs is black (126/1000 cars), so I'd expect a run of black to be made really soon given that we've only seen one black VINs assignment reported since you configured. Even if current production is only ~600/wk, that means one day of black cars every week or two right now. Yours is in that next batch of black!

 

[LV Acrobat]

I doubt that black was a bad choice...~1in8 configs is black (126/1000 cars), so I'd expect a run of black to be made really soon given that we've only seen one black VINs assignment reported since you configured. Even if current production is only ~600/wk, that means one day of black cars every week or two right now. Yours is in that next batch of black!

That was my thinking, really seems time for a black batch, and since I configured 2/14, I'm pretty confident I'm in that group. Maybe this week?

 

[suwaneedad]

That was my thinking, really seems time for a black batch, and since I configured 2/14, I'm pretty confident I'm in that group. Maybe this week?

Hey, I'm awaiting my silver VIN (2/15 configure)...silver is half as popular as black!

 

[nonstickrobot]

That was my thinking, really seems time for a black batch, and since I configured 2/14, I'm pretty confident I'm in that group. Maybe this week?

Get in line ;-) 2/4 black/aero/EAP Bay Area config here still with no VIN. I also believe black was an unfortunately timed choice.

 

[suwaneedad]

Get in line ;-) 2/4 black/aero/EAP Bay Area config here still with no VIN. I also believe black was an unfortunately timed choice.

*selfishly hopes guys in the paint shop grab the pails of silver paint this week rather than black, since silver comes with a $1000 bill attached to each unit.

 

[nonstickrobot]

*selfishly hopes guys in the paint shop grab the pails of silver paint this week rather than black, since silver comes with a $1000 bill attached to each unit.

Had I known black would take longer, I’d have paid for a different color! I actually like black or any color except silver, but my wife wanted to save $1K. Dangit

 

[Warbird]

I'm in the same category, refusing to respond because known of the deferral reasons match mine (white interior). As far as we collectively know, and going off of the S and X ramps, we have indefinitely to not decide (after all, they do have at least SOME of our money ).

I called Tesla and they said an invitation will remain open until its configured or cancelled. So I await my white interior.

 

[RTPEV]

I called Tesla and they said an invitation will remain open until its configured or cancelled. So I await my white interior.

I was thinking that once they do open up a new option (be it white interior, or AWD) it will create absolute havoc at the factory/delivery logistics. We've had 8-9 batches of invites, each with around 1000-2000 (and over 3000 for the Feb 22 batch), which represent over 17,000 total invites to date (if you believe the estimates in the tracker spreadsheet). And of course a certain percentage of those 17,000 represent deferrals for various reasons. But take any given reason (AWD, white interior, SR, etc.) and make it available, and it's basically like a whole new mega-batch of invites goes out, because the people that deferred already have their invites and were just waiting for that moment. If they wait much longer to introduce these options, time-to-delivery for some people will likely be months if only due to the fact that there might be 6000 people ready to configure an AWD all of a sudden! The only hope they have is to get production rate all the way up to 5K/week, but the longer they wait to offer those options, the worse the problem gets. Kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place.