I am still hoping you can add a graph to the spreadsheet that shows (on any given date) the number of people who have configured and not received their VIN; and (stacked on top) have a VIN but not taken delivery. This might help us all understand how many people are in the various categories and how much money they have likely advanced to Tesla while they are waiting on their cars.
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Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet
- Thread starter RubberToe
- Start date
This idea seems good. These charts below are almost useless as they do not include who is currently waiting and become skewed with outliers.
Without taking sides (I have no insights at all and I appreciate both parties for the work then and regret their falling out) I can confirm that Troy indeed asked me if I wanted to join the project once more in January. I declined because I felt I would not be able to contribute much, both in time and technical support.
chojn1
Member
I am getting some rather weird and uncomfortable vibes from this forum lately, and part of that is because of my rant earlier. And, for that, I do apologize.
Lets move forward. The fact of the matter is there are now two databases. Unless someone is willing to step up and take charge of both databases, it will remain so for the foreseeable future. I have previously offered mine but no takers. If you are not willing to step up and do the work, then you really do not have much to complain about. So, please, let the matter rest.
You can use which ever one you like, or you can use both or neither. This is a free world and you are getting a free service.
In the meantime . . .
My webpage is almost ready:
Tesla Model 3 Invites
Hope you like it.
CJ
Lets move forward. The fact of the matter is there are now two databases. Unless someone is willing to step up and take charge of both databases, it will remain so for the foreseeable future. I have previously offered mine but no takers. If you are not willing to step up and do the work, then you really do not have much to complain about. So, please, let the matter rest.
You can use which ever one you like, or you can use both or neither. This is a free world and you are getting a free service.
In the meantime . . .
My webpage is almost ready:
Tesla Model 3 Invites
Hope you like it.
CJ
It looks like essentially all new invites are Canadian. Also looks like almost all new VINs are Canadian. I used to like Canada and Canadians; now I'm not so sure.
I've been using this for a while now and it works perfectly. I check Latest VINs to see what combination is the flavor of the day, and then Color/Wheel to confirm it further.
It's useful since I can easily track MSM aeros (which I configured and has the largest backlog). It is easy for me to see that most 3/22 reservations have been filled with some later configurations going to WA (due to the expiring tax incentive). The 4/6 configurations should be the next large group assigned VINs en masse - hopefully sooner than later.
TT97
Active Member
While I want my VIN, it's good to see Tesla doing right by getting VINs out to WA residents (although they may have to double and triple park the M3s at the delivery centers).
chojn1
Member
@Sneakerbuddy,
I think you are looking for these:
Waiting for VIN
Waiting for Delivery
Let me know if those help.
CJ
chojn1
Member
RTPEV
Active Member
Holy cow! You found a way to make it even better!
Well true, but there is still more of a backlog of aeros than sports...unfortunately I bet they will switch over to a long run of sports just as my turn for a VIN comes up. Kind of like when the car ahead of you in the construction zone is the last one they let through and then you have to wait for the whole next cycle.chojn1 said:
RTPEV
Active Member
Whatever the outcome of the big database debate is, one idea moving forward would be to optionally collect an e-mail address, to only be used for the following purpose: once it "appears" that the data becomes stale (more in a minute), an e-mail would be sent asking the user to confirm their status is the same. If no response is received in a certain amount of time (4 weeks?) then the record is deleted (or archived) as stale. Well actually it doesn't even need to be deleted, but the various reports should have an option to run on all data or just non-stale data.
So what does stale mean? My thoughts:
I realize this will diminish the quantity of data in the database, but on the other hand, it increases the quality of the data. And are the numbers of entries even a concern at this point? Seems like we have plenty of data. And more is always better, with the caveat that it's good data.
Thoughts?
So what does stale mean? My thoughts:
- Entry has not been invited to configure even though users that reserved X time after them (possibly filtered by their state) have been invited. At this point, X would be extremely short (i.e. 2 days) because the # of reservations between 3/31 and 4/2 is huge, but as we get past those first 2 days, it would probably extend to 7 days or so.
- Entry was invited to configure, but not yet received a VIN, even though users with the same given configuration (and possibly state) that configured Y days later (Y = 7? 14?) have received a VIN.
- Entry has a VIN, but not yet scheduled delivery, ... (I think you get the picture)
- There is anomalous data in the entry which has been flagged by an admin. For example, there is an entry in the Highest VIN chart that shows a Canadian VIN of 38420 which almost certainly is bad data. This would be flagged by the admin as anomalous and a request to the user would be sent to fix.
- The entry has not been "refreshed" in a certain amount of time. A refresh actually be that a change was made, or it may be simply confirmation in response to a request to confirm status. Obviously for those deferring for AWD/SR/white interior/... they would legitimately have a reason for their entries to not be refreshed, so I would say for now, maybe the refresh period is generous (3 months from today), but in the future this might be cut down to a month? Maybe tie it to the estimated delivery dates the user has entered in their entry.
I realize this will diminish the quantity of data in the database, but on the other hand, it increases the quality of the data. And are the numbers of entries even a concern at this point? Seems like we have plenty of data. And more is always better, with the caveat that it's good data.
Thoughts?
While I understand the intention, it will be hard to get people to buy in. If the emails were collected at the inception of this spreadsheet, the process would definitely be a lot smoother. I fear that the amount of data we have will begin to drop off in a few months as more casual fans receive invitations.
Looking at VIN assignment charts, you can see small gaps of data in between but you can reasonably assume that those users never came back to update their information. As long as a majority of people are still updating, this isn't much of a problem as you can avoid the outliers.
There is no easy way to address this, including data that was input incorrectly. I do think that as long as a majority of the data is valid (and I believe it is), we will get a general trend/directional view of where Tesla is headed. There will be minor integrity issues but still provides the best estimate we have moving forward.
RTPEV
Active Member
Well yes, I can kind of visually do that manually. I mean the entire circled area of the chart here is probably stale:
and certainly those outliers on the right.
But it's almost impossible to tell the stale data from the otherwise excellent "waiting for VIN" chart:
Probably ALL of the users in that snippet are stale...and imagine what this will look like in a few months when basically the top 100 VIN waiters will all just be stale data.
I do get that there may be a lack of buy-in, but on the other hand, there may not be. You could technically try to collect the data and then just never expire data if you feel the fallout will be too great. There is no need to just assume that it won't work and thus not bother trying.
chojn1
Member
I did a bit of research back in my undergrad/med school/residency days. The challenge with this study is not any different than any other population study. Specifically, how to deal the 'loss to follow up' group. I can remember spending countless evenings after calls calling up participants to make sure they come back so I can finish my paper. I am not about to call or email any of you back. 
In the original spreadsheet, Troy developed a formula on one of his spreadsheets to add a calculated delivery date after 30 days if a user have not returned.
On this website version, I am polling the sites for the missing information. If I cannot verify that information, then that entry will be excluded from the study.
The same goes for pre 2/1/18 entries. That is the date we instituted the forms to enter data. Prior to that date, it was just a spreadsheet that any one can edit and alter. Some people tried to enter multiple entries. Some tried to edit and alter other people's entries. There were no way to police that so that set of data is not clean. The new form entry works very well, but, it also introduce a change in methodology. Consequently all data prior to that time cannot be included in the same current group. I've eliminated all those.
As far as collecting emails, that is a no go. The last thing I want is the responsibility of maintaining and protecting an email list; I just lost control of the entire data set.
We could just gently remind people to update their entry as they report their VIN or delivery.
CJ
In the original spreadsheet, Troy developed a formula on one of his spreadsheets to add a calculated delivery date after 30 days if a user have not returned.
On this website version, I am polling the sites for the missing information. If I cannot verify that information, then that entry will be excluded from the study.
The same goes for pre 2/1/18 entries. That is the date we instituted the forms to enter data. Prior to that date, it was just a spreadsheet that any one can edit and alter. Some people tried to enter multiple entries. Some tried to edit and alter other people's entries. There were no way to police that so that set of data is not clean. The new form entry works very well, but, it also introduce a change in methodology. Consequently all data prior to that time cannot be included in the same current group. I've eliminated all those.
As far as collecting emails, that is a no go. The last thing I want is the responsibility of maintaining and protecting an email list; I just lost control of the entire data set.
We could just gently remind people to update their entry as they report their VIN or delivery.
CJ
Let's say a month ago they had 6,000 people in the VIN queue and now they have 9,000. Looking at this increase people might think that the backlog is getting longer but absolute numbers are misleading in this context. If the production rate was 2,000/week a month ago, then 6,000 people would be equal to 3 weeks of production. If the production rate is 3,000/week now, then 9,000 people would be again equal to 3 weeks of production.
Therefore comparing the current number of people in the VIN queue to past numbers is misleading. There is a similar situation if you look at the VIN chart below. The gap between the green line and the orange line is getting wider over time but this is perfectly normal and it is supposed to be like that. They are acquiring NHTSA VINs a few weeks in advance. In the past, a few weeks meant 2500 units when their production rate was low. Nowadays a few weeks means 10K units. The gap didn't change in terms of time. Therefore this is actually an excellent way to estimate current total units.
Tesla collects $2,500 USD when people configure. If they collected that from let's say 10K people, that would be $25 million which is less than 1% of their $3.4 billion revenue in Q1. It's not important.
Click here for the live version of this chart.
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chojn1
Member
@bgbolton,
I am not sure I follow. The queue has the Canadian reservations.
Tesla Model 3 Invites - Waiting for VIN
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I'm a little confused as to where I should be updating my information after the divorce - when I get a VIN do I need to update that information in one or two places? And, can you provide me the link(s) where I should do that?
Thanks in advance,
Mike
Thanks in advance,
Mike
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