DR61
Member
Update to spreadsheet: Received VIN 65,2xx, AWD silver/black 18" EAP, scheduled for delivery 29 Aug., Rocklin, CA.
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Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet
- Thread starter RubberToe
- Start date
First, thank you very much for the organization and detail you put into this site to allow all of us owners/future owners to interact with one another
Second, anyone have a guess on time to receiving a VIN if I ordered July 20th, 2018 for a LR AWD Blue Metallic (no reservation, not previous Tesla Owner) ?
Hi, everybody. I added some stats to the VIN Queue tables. It looks like this for reservation holders:
And like this for non-reservation holders:
@DR61, @studiojon, @RunMadM3, there is a Google form HERE if you want to add your data. All the links are also available in the opening message. The data you post here is not added to the spreadsheet.
@NoMoLexus, based on the current estimate, high volume production for your group will start on 24 Oct 2018 and will last until 17 Nov 2018. This could change because on one hand more reservation holders are placing new orders and they will have priority too. On the other hand, Tesla is slowly increasing AWD production. The first change affects your group negatively and the second change positively. The spreadsheet considers both changes and automatically updates the estimates.
And like this for non-reservation holders:
I'm not sure about this change. Some of Tesla's estimates are still vague. I don't know why some of them would be a single month and others less precise.
@DR61, @studiojon, @RunMadM3, there is a Google form HERE if you want to add your data. All the links are also available in the opening message. The data you post here is not added to the spreadsheet.
@NoMoLexus, based on the current estimate, high volume production for your group will start on 24 Oct 2018 and will last until 17 Nov 2018. This could change because on one hand more reservation holders are placing new orders and they will have priority too. On the other hand, Tesla is slowly increasing AWD production. The first change affects your group negatively and the second change positively. The spreadsheet considers both changes and automatically updates the estimates.
@TheLocNar, @WhiteM3AWD, there is a Google form HERE if you want to add your data. All links are also available in the opening message. The data you post here is not added to the spreadsheet.
suwaneedad
Member
@Troy the far right of the Survey tab currently indicates there are ~50k Model 3s in queue for production (see ****).
That's about ~10 weeks of production.
There are ~17 weeks remaining in 2018.
What's your take on what Tesla will do to fill the remainder of its 2018 Model 3 production capacity?
- Entice current US/CN 'waiters' by adding another option such as cream seats, or maybe non-PUP LR?
- Begin taking orders from non US/CN markets, presumably of the left-hand variety? Tariff noise could delay this move.
- Tackle some early US SR line-waiters to fulfill some of the $35k demand prior to the US tax credit expiration, even though doing so reduces Avg Selling Price and runs counter to the profit maximization near-term objective? (Nothing is more expensive than wasted production capacity of course.)
- Other?
My guess is that we will see a modest number of US SR orders being enabled soon (for example, Day One owner line waiters). It would be good PR for Tesla to open up the $35k SR car, even if in reality it then prioritizes the production of orders which still involve the highest ordered price tag. Reward the folks with non-18s, non-solid black, PUP, EAP, FSD and so forth. Tesla has already conditioned its Model 3 buyers to know that production priority is P>AWD>RWD. Simple enough to layer in a few more elements in that chain, since something will have to be opened up in order to fill the remainder of 2018 capacity (not to mention 1Q19 capacity). Another reason I doubt we'll see EU left-hand configurations open up is there won't be time to both build and ship them to have them result in Q4 revenue/cash. We may, however, see a bunch of January production pointed toward the EU (in the spirit of how Model S/X have been handled in the past) as a way of ensuring Q1 builds result in Q1 revenues.
That's about ~10 weeks of production.
There are ~17 weeks remaining in 2018.
What's your take on what Tesla will do to fill the remainder of its 2018 Model 3 production capacity?
- Entice current US/CN 'waiters' by adding another option such as cream seats, or maybe non-PUP LR?
- Begin taking orders from non US/CN markets, presumably of the left-hand variety? Tariff noise could delay this move.
- Tackle some early US SR line-waiters to fulfill some of the $35k demand prior to the US tax credit expiration, even though doing so reduces Avg Selling Price and runs counter to the profit maximization near-term objective? (Nothing is more expensive than wasted production capacity of course.)
- Other?
My guess is that we will see a modest number of US SR orders being enabled soon (for example, Day One owner line waiters). It would be good PR for Tesla to open up the $35k SR car, even if in reality it then prioritizes the production of orders which still involve the highest ordered price tag. Reward the folks with non-18s, non-solid black, PUP, EAP, FSD and so forth. Tesla has already conditioned its Model 3 buyers to know that production priority is P>AWD>RWD. Simple enough to layer in a few more elements in that chain, since something will have to be opened up in order to fill the remainder of 2018 capacity (not to mention 1Q19 capacity). Another reason I doubt we'll see EU left-hand configurations open up is there won't be time to both build and ship them to have them result in Q4 revenue/cash. We may, however, see a bunch of January production pointed toward the EU (in the spirit of how Model S/X have been handled in the past) as a way of ensuring Q1 builds result in Q1 revenues.
@Troy Currently your sheet says 70 AWD non-P vins were given out last week. Do you have the data to also track the percent of those that are day 1 Reservations? To me, this shows how successful they are at keeping to a reservation system. I’m happy to take this as a DM, since this may not be popular info. I will not share if so.
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@suwaneedad,
1) Tesla is still getting new orders. The configurator went public exactly 2 months ago. There was a big spike at that time but afterward, new orders continued to come in at a steady flow. This is best demonstrated in the VINs tab:
We can't use the very last week to measure this because not everybody enters their data immediately after configuring. I'm currently counting the following numbers: 51/week new AWD orders, 95/week new VINs. In other words, new orders already cover 54% of the current AWD production. They currently have 57 days worth of orders but by the time they are done with those, they will have 32 days more worth of orders. I will look into this in more detail.
I don't think Tesla will need to add Standard Range or remove Premium Upgrades Package by the end of the year to add more orders. I think they will have enough orders as it is. However, if they needed more orders, they could send an email to reservation holders and owners to encourage them to order by, let's say 15th Oct 2018 for a 2018 delivery. Of course, they will try to maximize gross margins and achieve profitability in Q3 and Q4 which is why they are pushing for more highly optioned versions with deals like free supercharging. The estimated average sale price in Q4 is already ~$63,500. More details in the Survey tab.
A symbolic number of SR orders could happen in 2018. Tesla produced 30 units of Model X in Q3 2015 and 260 units of Model 3 in Q3 2017 just so they could say they started production in the shareholder letter.
@UtahIsRad, The reservation date column was more specific until recently. Day-1 instore, day-1 online, day-2 and the rest were specifically identified. When I sorted the LR AWD VIN Queue table by that data, I expected the VINs to end up on top of the table because I thought early reservation holders might have received more VINs. That wasn't the case. VINs were completely randomly scattered, even more randomly scattered than they are now. What I mean by that is, if you look at the table starting in VIN Queue column AS here, VINs are almost equally scattered around except the top section has slightly more VINs. When sorted by reservation date instead of config date, the top section didn't have that increase in density.
1) Tesla is still getting new orders. The configurator went public exactly 2 months ago. There was a big spike at that time but afterward, new orders continued to come in at a steady flow. This is best demonstrated in the VINs tab:
We can't use the very last week to measure this because not everybody enters their data immediately after configuring. I'm currently counting the following numbers: 51/week new AWD orders, 95/week new VINs. In other words, new orders already cover 54% of the current AWD production. They currently have 57 days worth of orders but by the time they are done with those, they will have 32 days more worth of orders. I will look into this in more detail.
I don't think Tesla will need to add Standard Range or remove Premium Upgrades Package by the end of the year to add more orders. I think they will have enough orders as it is. However, if they needed more orders, they could send an email to reservation holders and owners to encourage them to order by, let's say 15th Oct 2018 for a 2018 delivery. Of course, they will try to maximize gross margins and achieve profitability in Q3 and Q4 which is why they are pushing for more highly optioned versions with deals like free supercharging. The estimated average sale price in Q4 is already ~$63,500. More details in the Survey tab.
A symbolic number of SR orders could happen in 2018. Tesla produced 30 units of Model X in Q3 2015 and 260 units of Model 3 in Q3 2017 just so they could say they started production in the shareholder letter.
@UtahIsRad, The reservation date column was more specific until recently. Day-1 instore, day-1 online, day-2 and the rest were specifically identified. When I sorted the LR AWD VIN Queue table by that data, I expected the VINs to end up on top of the table because I thought early reservation holders might have received more VINs. That wasn't the case. VINs were completely randomly scattered, even more randomly scattered than they are now. What I mean by that is, if you look at the table starting in VIN Queue column AS here, VINs are almost equally scattered around except the top section has slightly more VINs. When sorted by reservation date instead of config date, the top section didn't have that increase in density.
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Hey @Troy, I am not a current owner of a Tesla, and I do not currently have a reservation, but I am planning to place an order for a RWD Long-range battery, non-enhanced auto-pilot/FSD model by... let's say September 24th-ish(NO LATER than this!). Do you think it's more than likely that I could take delivery before the end of 2018? I'd love some insight on this. Thanks!
I had gotten that impression from your VIN Queue table, but was hoping that BS wasn’t happening as much now. There is no logic to their delivery system except maybe that they are sending X number of cars to each delivery location and then those get matched randomly to buyers. It’s a total slap in the face to people who reserved early. The other spreadsheets people are using to track show more bias toward day, but they have less overall data than you I believe. What I keep hoping is that Tesla sees this issue and the week to week VIN numbers start leaning toward early reservations. Unfortunately, without a reservation date column in your spreadsheet one can’t look at that trend.
This chart from @jkirkwood001 seems to suggest a trending toward day 1 Reservations, but you say yours does not. This is what caused my question. Would be interesting if your version of this graph looks different. Wish we could combine the data easily from both your spreadsheets. I saw a ton of reports of VINs last week on this forum that you never got in your data.
copyhacker
Member
Configured last night (8/26/18) and added my data point:
Model LR3D
Midnight Silver Exterior
Black Interior
18’’ Aero Wheels
EAP
Columbia, SC (Charlotte)
Amazing work on the spreadsheet!
(Edit: Not a prior owner or reservation holder.)
Model LR3D
Midnight Silver Exterior
Black Interior
18’’ Aero Wheels
EAP
Columbia, SC (Charlotte)
Amazing work on the spreadsheet!
(Edit: Not a prior owner or reservation holder.)
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