Model 3 Performance...Plaid [speculation]

[Jameslook]

As long as Supply < Demand, prices will be going only one way. At that is UP.
Even if the BOM goes down with the new batteries, prices will still go UP.



No point - ain't gonna to happen.
TM3P sales are only 17.5% of total Model 3 sales, and have been declining over the past three years (13.7% in 2021).
Increasing the vehicle performance further will only provide marginal lift in sales. At the time when there is excess demand on Model 3's already (aka wait-lists), there is no point in marginally increasing demand. There just isn't.

The capital, management attention, and production capacity would be better spent on launching brand new models.

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LOL, you are thinking and speaking like a business man that only cares about money. Elon is not that guy. I hope he decides to add more power to the 3 and you're wrong.

 

[Knightshade]

TM3P sales are only 17.5% of total Model 3 sales, and have been declining over the past three years (13.7% in 2021).

Curious where those #s are from? I've never seen Tesla break sales down by trim level like that.

LOL, you are thinking and speaking like a business man that only cares about money. Elon is not that guy. I hope he decides to add more power to the 3 and you're wrong.

No- Elon is the guy who says Teslas mission is to accelerate the transition-- that means delivering as many cars as possible to replace ICE vehicles.

As long as demand exceeds supply, especially so long as that's true and the 3P is still the quickest EV on the market at its price, he's going to pick making more cars over making fewer, even faster, ones.

 

[MaskedRacerX]

Curious where those #s are from? I've never seen Tesla break sales down by trim level like that.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the actual % of Performance variants, but I'd be interested to know the source.

 

[heavyD]

Curious where those #s are from? I've never seen Tesla break sales down by trim level like that.




No- Elon is the guy who says Teslas mission is to accelerate the transition-- that means delivering as many cars as possible to replace ICE vehicles.

As long as demand exceeds supply, especially so long as that's true and the 3P is still the quickest EV on the market at its price, he's going to pick making more cars over making fewer, even faster, ones.

Yeah there isn't a lot of incentive to introduce another trim at the present time as they can't keep up to to the demand on the regular and LR models.

 

[Jameslook]

As long as demand exceeds supply, especially so long as that's true and the 3P is still the quickest EV on the market at its price, he's going to pick making more cars over making fewer, even faster, ones.

If there wasn't a Plaid in existence I would tend to agree with you but there is so I don't.

 

[Knightshade]

If there wasn't a Plaid in existence I would tend to agree with you but there is so I don't.

That doesn't really line up though.

The plaid replaced a car that hadn't had a major refresh in far longer than the 3P, does not use batteries Tesla uses in their mass-volume cars, and finally had some actual real competition showing up (Porsche, lucid, etc)- not to mention has an MSRP north of 2x the 3P so a lot more room for overhead costs in relatively small volume sales.

 

[heavyD]

The Model 3P doesn't really need to be any faster. It's already fastest in a straight line of cars in its price range. What it needs is a more premium feeling interior with a HUD and some minor tweaks to the exterior to differentiate it more from the regular and LR models. It's not going to happen but I feel most people would prefer those upgrades to a faster version of an already very fast car as we are getting to the point of diminishing returns of straight line acceleration with so many cars around in the 3 second or quicker 0-60 mph times.

 

[MaskedRacerX]

I've posted this in other threads, but figured it would be relevant (maybe moreso) here.


What we need, a better Performance flavor, i.e., the Model 3R, or Model R or whatever, I didn't want the extra size, or some of the extra things like a rear seat AV/display of an S, I'm fine with a single front display, so start with the Model 3.

Model 3 chassis
20-25% increase in battery and power (0-60 in the 2.6 -2.8 area, 1/4 mile high 10s at 122-124)
Deeper bolstered front seats, maybe cloth option
Lower front / larger rear aero
Adj. air suspension
Larger/lighter wheels/tires
P brakes, track mode, etc.

This would bridge the performance between the M3P and the MSP while also creating more of a gap between the LR and the "Performance" model.

 

[BigNick]

I've posted this in other threads, but figured it would be relevant (maybe moreso) here.


What we need, a better Performance flavor, i.e., the Model 3R, or Model R or whatever, I didn't want the extra size, or some of the extra things like a rear seat AV/display of an S, I'm fine with a single front display, so start with the Model 3.

Model 3 chassis
20-25% increase in battery and power (0-60 in the 2.6 -2.8 area, 1/4 mile high 10s at 122-124)
Deeper bolstered front seats, maybe cloth option
Lower front / larger rear aero
Adj. air suspension
Larger/lighter wheels/tires
P brakes, track mode, etc.

This would bridge the performance between the M3P and the MSP while also creating more of a gap between the LR and the "Performance" model.

I'd be on board with that. It's a better way to spend an extra $12K than adding another infamous option which I won't name here.

 

[Kvitravn]

Tesla doesn't spend any money on marketing. And sells cars faster than they can build them. On competition--- what competition?

The current 3 Performance is the quickest EV in the world 0-60 or 1/4 mile anywhere close to the price.

And if Tesla already doesn't have enough batterys to build more cars- where would this third party partner get them from?

There are plenty of people around who think the Polestar 2 Performance did better on the Nurburgring than the Performance; based on Misha Charoidins comments on the Polestar. I have friends that are holding off ordering M3Ps because the BMW M40 is coming, and they are sure BMW will make a much better car for trackday use. The BMW M3 is a pretty good benchmark for such cars and they don't understand how far ahead Tesla is.

So yes, marketing or more specifically building brand value if you vant to be technical about it.

As for selling every car they can make, I agree that is an unbeatable position to be in. But they should still strive to sell each car at the highest possible margin, no? The third party would get production models and the purpose is to demonstrate the attractiveness of the Performance i.e. higher margin vehicles. This would be pretty similar to Porsche's Manthay-built limited versions; which are a pure marketing exercise to keep 911s among the lap time reccord holders.

I don't work at Tesla so I have no idea if this would work. but i WANT it to work because I want one of those cars

 

[Knightshade]

There are plenty of people around who think the Polestar 2 Performance did better on the Nurburgring than the Performance; based on Misha Charoidins comments on the Polestar. I have friends that are holding off ordering M3Ps because the BMW M40 is coming, and they are sure BMW will make a much better car for trackday use. The BMW M3 is a pretty good benchmark for such cars and they don't understand how far ahead Tesla is.

So yes, marketing or more specifically building brand value if you vant to be technical about it.

Everything I've read on the M40 has been pretty poor for handling because they built it off an ICE platform so it's massively heavier than it needs to be, much heavier than a model 3.

The Polestar 2 does seem like a pretty decent EV- but they don't make many of em.... they sold less than 30k EVs total in all of 2021 (and not all of those were PS2s, and obviously even fewer performance ones)

As for selling every car they can make, I agree that is an unbeatable position to be in. But they should still strive to sell each car at the highest possible margin, no?

Teslas margins on cars are roughly 2-4x higher than every other car company in the world so seems they've got that bit figured out already.

 

[Kvitravn]

You and I realize that the M40 is a heavy, fwd biased compromise that cannot possibly match the Performance around the Ring. But a lot of people who should realize this have faith in BMW - and that won't change before someone trustworthy runs them back to back. Or a Nur Spec posts a 7:40 full lap to permanently delegate the M40 to the back of the line.

A friend of mine thought the Polestar 2 Performance with performance boost was fast untill we swapped cars. Erm, it's nowhere near Even though it is a nice car.

Margins are even higher on the P than the rest

 

[heavyD]

Current EV's really aren't ideal for track use outside of a few hot laps as they all start pulling power when things get hot. I'm sure we will see more performance oriented EV's from high end and exotic automakers in the future but I can't imagine there are going to be many affordable ones until we get a major uptick in battery capacity and heat management. Look at what happened when C&D took their model S to the Lightning lap.

Lightning Lap 2016: Tesla Model S P85D

The results were not all that shocking, actually.

www.caranddriver.com

 

[heavyD]

You and I realize that the M40 is a heavy, fwd biased compromise that cannot possibly match the Performance around the Ring. But a lot of people who should realize this have faith in BMW - and that won't change before someone trustworthy runs them back to back. Or a Nur Spec posts a 7:40 full lap to permanently delegate the M40 to the back of the line.

A friend of mine thought the Polestar 2 Performance with performance boost was fast untill we swapped cars. Erm, it's nowhere near Even though it is a nice car.

Margins are even higher on the P than the rest

What is this M40? Are you talking about the i4 M50? It's certainly not FWD biased as BMW only uses the Mini platform on the 2 series grande coupe and X1/X2. It's build on a RWD platform.

 

[DanTeSX]

Why? It’s already faster than almost anything that’s not another Tesla (or exotic, purpose built street drag, or high end German stuff).

What these cars need is a second gear for highway….

I expect that there will be incremental power upgrades in line with battery technology growth, as time and revisions go on. But not a tri-motor variant, plaid, ludicrous, etc.

 

[afadeev]

TM3P sales are only 17.5% of total Model 3 sales, and have been declining over the past three years (13.7% in 2021).

Curious where those #s are from? I've never seen Tesla break sales down by trim level like that.

Tesla doesn't release that level of detail, but this owner-reported source does. Sample size of 3590 entries:

Teslike Model 3 Survey & Order Tracker #1

All Entries 3,775 entries,<a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScW5QUYZatZZRohDYhm1jGC_Ta0kJ6gJrtvg8gWSHi40TfO1g/viewform">Google Form</a>,<< Add or edit your data,96.1%,31.8%,90.4%,50.9%,99.6%,AVG 44 days,AVG 12 days,AVG 56 days,<a href="https://youtu.be/vIPHFpt1EhM?t=203">Video</a...

docs.google.com

LOL, you are thinking and speaking like a business man that only cares about money. Elon is not that guy. I hope he decides to add more power to the 3 and you're wrong.

Really?
Then this must be about some other Elon guy:

Elon Musk, Now World’s Richest Person, Told Forbes He’s Sending Jeff Bezos A Silver Medal

The Tesla chief takes another shot at his Amazon rival.

www.forbes.com

No- Elon is the guy who says Teslas mission is to accelerate the transition-- that means delivering as many cars as possible to replace ICE vehicles.

If Elon didn't care about money, he would not be raising prices on Tesla's.
That move doze exactly NOTHING to accelerate the transition to EVs. It does, however, maximize quarterly profit that he gets to report, and pushes Tesla share prices higher.
Maximizing margins on every vehicle would be something a dirty capitalist would do. Which is what Tesla is doing. Which is controlled by Elon. An strategy that is very much appreciated and endorsed by all Tesla shareholders.

The rest is just pretty talk.

Sorry, folks, you've picked a wrong guy for the hippie-tree-hugger-of-the year award.

As long as demand exceeds supply, especially so long as that's true and the 3P is still the quickest EV on the market at its price, he's going to pick making more cars over making fewer, even faster, ones.

Yep.
And raising prices on the ones he does make!

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[Knightshade]

Tesla doesn't release that level of detail, but this owner-reported source does. Sample size of 3590 entries:

Teslike Model 3 Survey & Order Tracker #1

All Entries 3,775 entries,<a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScW5QUYZatZZRohDYhm1jGC_Ta0kJ6gJrtvg8gWSHi40TfO1g/viewform">Google Form</a>,<< Add or edit your data,96.1%,31.8%,90.4%,50.9%,99.6%,AVG 44 days,AVG 12 days,AVG 56 days,<a href="https://youtu.be/vIPHFpt1EhM?t=203">Video</a...

docs.google.com

Not sure a sample size of 3590, on cars selling hundreds of thousands a year, for multiple years now, is super reliable... especially when there's probably some bias of folks who buy the P being more likely to be more engaged with enthusiast/forum/online stuff about the car.

If Elon didn't care about money, he would not be raising prices on Tesla's.
That move doze exactly NOTHING to accelerate the transition to EVs.

As long as demand exceeds supply, this is flat out wrong.

They'd sell [B}exactly as many[/B] cars at lower prices as they do at high.... as many as they can build.

So higher prices don't slow the transition at all.

Just the opposite, they provide Tesla additional cash to continue scaling up production, meaning more cars produced in the long run (and more other sustainable things like megapacks, solar, etc).

 

[Kvitravn]

What is this M40? Are you talking about the i4 M50? It's certainly not FWD biased as BMW only uses the Mini platform on the 2 series grande coupe and X1/X2. It's build on a RWD platform.

Yes, the I4 M50

Driven one? It feels fwd biased, inner front wheel spins loose in the wet, it even torque steers. I was told 2250kg and it really feels that much heavier compared to my Performance. Interior is well made but feels eerily like a leased BMW 320d with the M interior option.

 

[Kvitravn]

Current EV's really aren't ideal for track use outside of a few hot laps as they all start pulling power when things get hot.

Lightning Lap 2016: Tesla Model S P85D

The results were not all that shocking, actually.

www.caranddriver.com

True, but it is just a cooling system capacity issue because these cars are so optimized for efficiency. The point I'm trying to make is that it's pretty straight forward to optimize for performance.

Mountain Pass have pretty much worked this out with radiator and engine oil cooling upgrades. MASTER THREAD: Comprehensive Road-Course Modification Guide — Optimizing the 3 for the track

I.e. the major upgrades you'd need for a more track oriented halo model are off the shelf parts available right now.

 

[afadeev]

Not sure a sample size of 3590, on cars selling hundreds of thousands a year, for multiple years now, is super reliable... especially when there's probably some bias of folks who buy the P being more likely to be more engaged with enthusiast/forum/online stuff about the car.

The data is definitely not perfect, for all the reasons you sited, plus the self-reporting biases.
But it's WAY better and more insightful then what we get out of Tesla, so its much better than nothing.

As long as demand exceeds supply, this is flat out wrong.
They'd sell [B}exactly as many[/B] cars at lower prices as they do at high.... as many as they can build.

Tesla has raised prices on all of its cars, at both the bottom and top of the vehicle (3, Y, S, X) ranges.
Remember the $35K entry-level Model 3?
Try $45K these days!

So higher prices don't slow the transition at all.

Higher prices for goods sold negatively effect demand, in the long term.
If you have data points that suggest otherwise, please document and present them, and I will personally submit your candidacy for a Nobel in Economics.

Just the opposite, they provide Tesla additional cash to continue scaling up production, meaning more cars produced in the long run (and more other sustainable things like megapacks, solar, etc).

Insufficient investment capital (or free cash flow from operations, FCF) has never held back Tesla's expansion plans. Those got more than fully funded from new equity issuance rounds of $12.3B (in 2020) and $5B (in 2021).
In contrast, Tesla's Investment CF needs were $3.1B (in 2020) and $7B (in 2021). So, Tesla has raised $7.2B more than it needed to fund production scaling needs.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Cash Flow - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance

Understand the cash flow statement for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), learn where the money comes from and how the company spends it.

finance.yahoo.com

Tesla raised prices on all of their cars because they could, due to the fact that demand > supply.
And because it's the right Capitalist thing to do, according to all economic theories and norms.
Greedy - sure.
Doable - absolutely.
Needed to "expand EV adoption" - hell no.
But hey, if buyers open their wallets and grab their ankles in front of your dealerships, who can fault Tesla for taking advantage of the situation?!

Not me.
I still own TSLA stock, though I've have updated stop-loss orders on it recently, and the answer my change soon.

a